Picking a Winner - PRZ

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  • lindsayleeds

    Picking a Winner - PRZ

    PRZ (PainCare) today announced their fourth acquisition in a month. Management is predicting Basic EPS of .30 this year and the latest string of acquistions put them at a run rate of 7.5M earnings of the 9.0M earnings needed for the .30. I expect the MedX and EDX contracts they sign to make the additional 1.5M earnings happen without any additional acquisitions.

    PRZ basically buys pain management, minimally invasive spine surgery and orthopedic rehabilitation practices for 5X EBITDA in cash and stock. Half up front, half on performance criteria. They also rent MedX equipment, a physical therapy platform, and EDX equipment, a non-invasive back pain diagnosis system. It gives doctors the ability to in-source stuff normally done in hospitals, increasing the profitability of a practice.

    Anyhow, it is trading at 10-11x projected 2004 earnings, which is cheap still. They are growing revenue from $16M 2003 to $36M 2004. There is some dilution for financing, but the revenue and earnings growth far outpace it. Supposing the P/E ratio drops from today's 50 to 30, you still have a $9 stock.

    Anyway, myself, my friends, and my relatives have been buying as much of this as we can because it is the best opportunity I know of.

    The market they are in is a $10 billion dollar market, so even at $36M revenues, they have plenty of growing room.

    It broke upwards on record volume today, but that is not near as important as the fourth acquisition that shows that management is delivering and on target. Listen to the last quarter's conference call to get an idea of how sharp and openly honest management is.

    I don't care if you buy any PRZ or not, but wanted to share with y'all an opportunity as I have benefited from Mr. Market and others posting great stock ideas to these boards.
  • Karel
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 2199

    #2
    Re: Picking a Winner - PRZ

    Originally posted by lindsayleeds
    ... I don't care if you buy any PRZ or not, but wanted to share with y'all an opportunity as I have benefited from Mr. Market and others posting great stock ideas to these boards.
    Just for the record: this is the third time you cheer this stock in just over two months. PRZ looks rather speculative, and if anything overvalued on current info. With 7.5M as "certain" revenue, the current conservative price for this stock seems to be at 2.60 or so. Not the 3.14 it is at now. Interestingly, there seems to be rather strong support at the 2.50/2.60 level.

    Regards,

    Karel
    My Investopedia portfolio
    (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

    Comment

    • lindsayleeds

      #3
      It will never see $2.60 again. Never. That 7.5M is earnings, not revenue. Which comes to .25 EPS. That's a forward P/E ratio of 12.5. That is not too high for a company growing from 3.9M revenue 2002 to 15M revenue 2003 to 36M revenue 9M earnings for 2004. In fact that's a darn cheap P/E ratio for a company that's confident they will grow 40-50% for the next 3-5 years.

      Of course once the .30 is all on paper as past earnings, the stock won't be at $3.00 any more. There won't be any doubters. No risk, no reward.

      Comment

      • Karel
        Administrator
        • Sep 2003
        • 2199

        #4
        Yes, stupid of me to use the word revenue, and while I was using the number in an earnings calculation, too. It is a bit disappointing however that a critical note just makes you rev up the hype another notch.

        BTW, what was your entry point?

        Regards,

        Karel
        My Investopedia portfolio
        (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

        Comment

        • lindsayleeds

          #5
          Probably $2.85 off the top of my head. I bought in bits and pieces.

          Comment

          • Karel
            Administrator
            • Sep 2003
            • 2199

            #6
            OK. Good luck with it!

            Regards,

            Karel
            My Investopedia portfolio
            (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

            Comment

            • spikefader
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 7175

              #7
              Originally posted by lindsayleeds
              It will never see $2.60 again. Never.
              LOL never say never

              Comment

              • Karel
                Administrator
                • Sep 2003
                • 2199

                #8
                Originally posted by spikefader
                Originally posted by lindsayleeds
                It will never see $2.60 again. Never.
                LOL never say never
                Just for the record: PRZ had a low yesterday of 2.50. It seems to be in a down trend for the moment too.

                What does this imply for the stock? I don't know. My main reason to warn against stocks with a low (dollar) volume (not just PRZ) is precisely that their price might move a lot in unexpected ways. Of course, fundamental considerations might make such a stock more attractive. But that doesn't remove the risk.

                Regards,

                Karel
                My Investopedia portfolio
                (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

                Comment

                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Karel
                  Originally posted by spikefader
                  Originally posted by lindsayleeds
                  It will never see $2.60 again. Never.
                  LOL never say never
                  Just for the record: PRZ had a low yesterday of 2.50. It seems to be in a down trend for the moment too.

                  What does this imply for the stock? I don't know. My main reason to warn against stocks with a low (dollar) volume (not just PRZ) is precisely that their price might move a lot in unexpected ways. Of course, fundamental considerations might make such a stock more attractive. But that doesn't remove the risk.

                  Regards,

                  Karel
                  Yep, so true. Risk is ALWAYS going to be there, which is why you should never say never. It's one thing to be a confident trader, but overconfidence in any stock will eventually lead to self-destruction of your trading capital. Hope you're not too loaded on it lindsayleeds!

                  Comment

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