The Falmouth Road RaceTop 5

[mrmarket]

Here are my 5 best...I will buy one of these tomorrow. Which one do you like and why?:

ACRG.OB ARLP BDK FLIR PENN

[Karel]

I like ARLP, growth AND a dividend!

I really, really dislike ACRG, because I dislike cheap and thinly traded stocks (on a public board like this) on principle. But I could use an airco, right now.

Regards,

Karel

[mrmarket]

I like ARLP, growth AND a dividend!

I really, really dislike ACRG, because I dislike cheap and thinly traded stocks (on a public board like this) on principle. But I could use an airco, right now.

Regards,

Karel

Karel...check out its earnings.

Remember the mantra!

[Karel]

They are lovely.

And I still bite you!

BITE!

[mrmarket]

They are lovely.

And I still bite you!

BITE!

ouch...hey can you find a screener that taps into the OTC database like Stockpoint.com used to?? I have had no luck.

[New-born baby]

My pick this time around

Mr. Market,

After reviewing the top five, I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents worth just to see how my reasoning measures up against the Slugger.

First, the rejects:
ACRB--I don't want to buy over the counter stuff, which is what I think this is. Too thinly traded.

PENN--I never buy gambling stock; they profit from peoples' misery. I don't care what the profits or gains could be. God won't bless me if I buy this stock.

ARLP--looks real good: 5% dividend of $2.60; $4.28 in earnings per share, P/E of 14.2. BUT it is the coal industry (Old America), which limits it to electrical generation and steel industries, and so thinly traded at only 55k avg volume, and worst of all, only 8% institutional ownership. Still, it looks good, real good, but . . .others look better. I think. This one is a good safe pick.

BDK--85% institutional ownership, $5.17 profit per share, gross margin of 41% (WOW!), small dividend of $.84 per share; 1.1 million shares traded daily, and a p/e of 13.9. What is not to like unless it is the fact that they are cheap with their dividends? Or perhaps that maybe the growth is already done in this stock.

SO THE WINNER IS:

ESMC! Oh, wait. . .un, it is: FLIR! No dividend! 38.5 p/e! But 60% gross margin (incredible!). 1.92 eps. I think this one has 15% left in the stock price. Thermal imaging is the new America.

[Bakxs]

PENN -NT-

NT = No text

[pdonlevy]

Interesting picks

I have been following PENN closely, and have made a little money short term trading it. It is fairly volatile, but I agree that it is a good pick to go long.

[jiesen]

OK, so today BDK hit the hypothetical 15% mark, along with PENN's 15% achievement last week. ACRG and ARLP have both moved 20+% up since these 5 were picked. So what is it about FLIR that makes it the lemon of this group?!? It sure has some catching up to do...

[jiesen]

hey, I'm actually pretty impressed with FLIR to rebound from the -$3 open this morning. I guess beating the street by 0.02 isn't that bad after all!

Maybe what spooked the traders on this was the $200M convertibles that vested on today's decent earnings.

One question though about earnings:
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So what are the earnings going to be, $$$MR. MARKET$$$? Based on its financial results for the first six months of 2004, and the outlook for the remainder of the year, management currently expects revenue for 2004 to be approximately $470 million to $480 million and net earnings in the range of approximately $1.88 to $1.98 per diluted share. The ANAL-ysts so cleverly split the difference and said 2004 would come in at $1.92 and 2005 at $2.38 (24% growth). I’m laughing so hard I have to change my Depends.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ has pegged 2004 earnings at $2.26/share and 2005 revenue at $2.94/share. Based on the 2004 earnings alone, and today’s PE of 39, FLIR should reach a share price of 88, which is well past my sell target. We’re not going to see another earnings report until late October. By then, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ will have already come and gone from his annual Vegas trip and this write up will be a hazy memory. I’ll need Thermo goggles.
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Q3 was 0.32 vs. 0.30 expected. This is actually diluted from 0.47 without the notes.
Do the $$MM projections take this dilution into account? I know it says "diluted" but at $0.32 per quarter, it's going to be tough to hit $2 for the year...

[Karel]

OK, so today BDK hit the hypothetical 15% mark, along with PENN's 15% achievement last week. ACRG and ARLP have both moved 20+% up since these 5 were picked. So what is it about FLIR that makes it the lemon of this group?!? It sure has some catching up to do...

Yes! and as I liked ARLP, I bought some of that too. And sold it already for its 15%

Thanks, $$$MrMarket$$$ !!! You're H U G E !!!