$$$MR. MARKET$$$'s Personal Homepage and Stock Portfolio

[jiesen]

To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking

Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.

you don't need the amounts to do the calculation, only relative amounts. if $$MM wanted everyone to know how much $$ he has invested, he'd probably have told us by now.

it would make a lot of sense to just assume an equal weight for each position at the start, since that's the most logical way someone would go about "following the system" if he or she had no reason to think one pick was huger than the other. and you can also assume that the proceeds from each sale are rolled into the following pick, since that's what $$MM has stated is how this model works.

there are of course some instances where these assumptions won't match $$MM's performance exactly- like when multiple sales occur- but the discrepancies would probably mostly cancel each other out, and you'd end up with a pretty good approximation of the returns...

an easier way to do it would just be to ask Karel how his FMM model has been performing, since he's already been doing this calculation for some time now.


5/17
FMM: 20059
SPY: 21805
QQQ: 20972

11/22
FMM: 20951 4.4%
SPY: 21652 -0.7%
QQQ: 21760 3.8%

12/5
FMM: 20606 2.7%
SPY: 21783 -0.1%
QQQ: 22170 5.7%




Actually, I pulled the #'s off of Karel's FMM thread, and it shows that someone starting to follow the method in May 2004 (using Karel's rules... which you can look up in his thread) would be up about 3% as of Dec 5. That's not so huge in itself, but it's still 3% better than the S&P ($$MM tends to compare his performace to this index). Of course, it's also 3% less than what the QQQ has returned in the same period. Now I woudn't expect 6% out the QQQ every 6 months, but out of the FMM port, 3-6% could probably be expected or even surpassed over most 6 month periods.

Please do more of the math and show me if what I said is true or not!

[df21084]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

[mrmarket]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

My commissions are pretty small compared to the total capital in my trade. When you open or close a position is entirely up to you. I'm not a financial advisor, and even if I was, it's your money, not mine.

Nothing I ever say on this website should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a stock.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

Generally I look for price appreciation. Once I had a stock, PORT, which was bought out at a price that would have given me a 14% gain. Fortunately, it paid dividends of about 4% that put me over the top...(phew).

[mrmarket]

Make no mistake. OFG will hit my price target.

[df21084]

FLIR announces 2-1 stock split. Hopefully, this will attract new investors, and the stock price will start to climb.

[Gatorman]

Mr Market:
Some of the stocks have been held for a fairly long time which shows a strong belief in your system. Do you have any triggers that cause you to exit a stock before your goal is reached of a 15% gain. For example: if the news event that helped convince you to enter a postion somehow reversed or changed to the point that you would have viewed it as a negative rather than a positive, would you exit your position?

[mrmarket]

Mr Market:
Some of the stocks have been held for a fairly long time which shows a strong belief in your system. Do you have any triggers that cause you to exit a stock before your goal is reached of a 15% gain. For example: if the news event that helped convince you to enter a postion somehow reversed or changed to the point that you would have viewed it as a negative rather than a positive, would you exit your position?

yes! If something fundamental happens to a company or its industry such that I no longer believe it will outperform the market, I will sell the stock even at below my target price.

Please remember that I generally exclusively buy stocks in companies that have extraordinary revenue and earnings growth. What this means is that if its stock doesn't continue to appreciate in price, the company becomes a better and better value to own. Many in my string of 63 took this path, yet still outperformed the overall market by the time it was sold.

[mooddude]

yes! If something fundamental happens to a company or its industry such that I no longer believe it will outperform the market, I will sell the stock even at below my target price.

How about BEL that appears on your list of open positions? It looks doomed to me, in which regard I would like to ask how your current losses balance with all gains (there seems to be no losses in the past due to not closing such positions)? What is larger taking into account the absolute amounts you invested in each stock? Please note that I'm not trying to reproach your system but rather trying to figure out the final return. If you don't mind, please show the absolutes (discounted by any factor, if you wish).

[mrmarket]

How about BEL that appears on your list of open positions? It looks doomed to me, in which regard I would like to ask how your current losses balance with all gains (there seems to be no losses in the past due to not closing such positions)? What is larger taking into account the absolute amounts you invested in each stock? Please note that I'm not trying to reproach your system but rather trying to figure out the final return. If you don't mind, please show the absolutes (discounted by any factor, if you wish).

My overall returns over the last 14 years are well in excess of market averages. I am sure many of the readers on this forum who have followed me since the Prodigy, AOL and Yahoo days will confirm this fact for you.

I am also fairly certain that BEL will outperform the market next year, therefore I see no reason to sell it. What makes you think it is "doomed"?

What else do you need to know?

[mrmarket]

By the way, Mr. Mooddude, there have been many others before you asking the same kinds of questions. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt and assume your inquiries are sincere, and not being disruptive.

All of those who preceded you have either been "converted" or they have disappeared. One of these gentlemen goes by the name of Karel (when I was over at the Motley Fool), who runs this Board. What does that fact tell you?

I'll give you one guess. We're not here to lose money.

[B.J]

Hey Mr. Market. Newbie here. Thanks for creating this forum. Interesting stuff.

I do agree that an 8% sell is a rather ridiculous criteria, especially if diversified with more than 3 stocks. But don't you think you'd do better if you threw in the towel on certain stocks at some point. The other user asked about BEL, which right now has a RS=1 and EPS=18 and wouldn't pass your current screens.

My question is, have you ever considered adding a sell criteria to your model that would kick stocks out when EPS or RS deteriorated? Even if, as you mentioned, one of the stocks you were down in were to outperform the market, do you think it'd be better to sell, then pony up those proceeds on something that passes your current screens and has a chance of doing even better?

Overall, it's a very interesting system. Stay in for as short-term as possible to avoid the hits is a sound strategy. I can't tell you how many 30% gains of mine have evaporated.

[mrmarket]

Hey Mr. Market. Newbie here. Thanks for creating this forum. Interesting stuff.

I do agree that an 8% sell is a rather ridiculous criteria, especially if diversified with more than 3 stocks. But don't you think you'd do better if you threw in the towel on certain stocks at some point. The other user asked about BEL, which right now has a RS=1 and EPS=18 and wouldn't pass your current screens.

My question is, have you ever considered adding a sell criteria to your model that would kick stocks out when EPS or RS deteriorated? Even if, as you mentioned, one of the stocks you were down in were to outperform the market, do you think it'd be better to sell, then pony up those proceeds on something that passes your current screens and has a chance of doing even better?

Overall, it's a very interesting system. Stay in for as short-term as possible to avoid the hits is a sound strategy. I can't tell you how many 30% gains of mine have evaporated.

Let's write down BEL's price today and that of the S&P 500....let's make a note to check them both on June 30, 2005 and see which one went up more.

[B.J]

LOL! That won't be necessary.

You don't need to defend BEL to me or anyone. Your record speaks for itself.

Just asking for your insight, that's all. Basically I was just wondering if you ever tweak your system. I could give a rat's ass about BEL