$$$MR. MARKET$$$'s Personal Homepage and Stock Portfolio

[New-born baby]

TraverseTramp

Having all the IBD extras is required to run this model? Has anybody found another way? Are there any additional pointers on how and where to look for the information needed? I couldn't get past step one without IBD chart service.
I'm trying to be serious about day trading here with Real Tick. The best advice I can give is start on TALX first, 300 a month for a ton of lessons and don't keep any loaded guns in the house.....Later, Traverse Tramp

Please talk a little about TALX. I'd be very interested to hear what you have to say. Thanks!

[mrmarket]

Having all the IBD extras is required to run this model? Has anybody found another way? Are there any additional pointers on how and where to look for the information needed? I couldn't get past step one without IBD chart service.
I'm trying to be serious about day trading here with Real Tick. The best advice I can give is start on TALX first, 300 a month for a ton of lessons and don't keep any loaded guns in the house.....Later, Traverse Tramp

Karel has built a model with MSN screeners which replicates my model. IBD is not needed.

[Karel]

Karel has built a model with MSN screeners which replicates my model. IBD is not needed.

You'll find my approximation in this thread. You can discuss it in this one.

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

Thank You

You'll find my approximation in this thread. You can discuss it in this one.

Regards,

Karel

Thanks, Karel! For this and all that you do for us here.

[ParkTwain]

Hi Ernie,

I can't help but notice in your results table at your website that of your 12 most recently closed trades (those since 6/1/2004), only 4 have resulted in an annual return basis of > 50%. Which would make that stretch just about your toughest since you started tracking your trades (1/1/2002). Do you have any comments for the board about the idea that your recent results are perhaps like a light (or maybe like a moving average measure) being shone on the growth portion of the overall stock market? I find this to be very interesting. It's certainly not a knock on you, but rather perhaps an indication of the "life cycle" for growth-oriented near-term investing within the greater market's longer bull cycle that perhaps we should learn something from.

Also, 3 of your positions (ARLP, TOL, and HANS) opened since 1/1/2005 are in pretty good shape as of today.

//PT

[mrmarket]

Hi Ernie,

I can't help but notice in your results table at your website that of your 12 most recently closed trades (those since 6/1/2004), only 4 have resulted in an annual return basis of > 50%. Which would make that stretch just about your toughest since you started tracking your trades (1/1/2002). Do you have any comments for the board about the idea that your recent results are perhaps like a light (or maybe like a moving average measure) being shone on the growth portion of the overall stock market? I find this to be very interesting. It's certainly not a knock on you, but rather perhaps an indication of the "life cycle" for growth-oriented near-term investing within the greater market's longer bull cycle that perhaps we should learn something from.

Also, 3 of your positions (ARLP, TOL, and HANS) opened since 1/1/2005 are in pretty good shape as of today.

//PT

That's the way it works. Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what is happening in the overall market. In a bear market, obviously there will be fewer than in a bull market.

I'm proud of my model in that I am able to find winners even when the overall market is being stingy. Back in 1999 (I think it was 1999) , I had about 100 winners in one year. (Boy that was a good year). In some other years, I only had 10 or so.

If some of you stick around long enough, you'll see how this cycle works. Hopefully we'll all be together when we see another year where I get 100 winners. Then this board will be rockin.

[diogenes]

While I think the reason behind the r^2 calculation is listed someplace on this site, I seem to be unable to find it and my spreadsheet sight-reading skills are not so good. Perhaps, someone would be kind enough to elaborate on it?

[mrmarket]

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that what ultimately drives a stock price is its earnings. Growing earnings and revenues are the foundation. The derivative of this earnings growth is its stock price climb.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that if a stock can demonstrate a steady price climb through 3 quarterly earnings releases, then it is more likely than not that it will continue this climb over the short run.

A steady price climb can be captured by running a time series regression analysis of a stock's price vs. time. The stock with the highest r^2 coefficient is the one that has deviated the least from its climb over the period that the daily prices were measured. This is a good indicator of price momentum.

Stocks that have deviated from the steady slope show that they may be more likely to deviate up or down and I seek to avoid stocks that have this randomness. These stocks will have lower r^2 coefficients.

Hope this helps.

[billyjoe]

And that is why you know what the graph of a Mr.Market selection will look like before you look it up.
billyjoe

[diogenes]

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that what ultimately drives a stock price is its earnings. Growing earnings and revenues are the foundation. The derivative of this earnings growth is its stock price climb.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that if a stock can demonstrate a steady price climb through 3 quarterly earnings releases, then it is more likely than not that it will continue this climb over the short run.

A steady price climb can be captured by running a time series regression analysis of a stock's price vs. time. The stock with the highest r^2 coefficient is the one that has deviated the least from its climb over the period that the daily prices were measured. This is a good indicator of price momentum.

Stocks that have deviated from the steady slope show that they may be more likely to deviate up or down and I seek to avoid stocks that have this randomness. These stocks will have lower r^2 coefficients.

Hope this helps.

Thanks for the reply.
It contained the information that I needed.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,

Who are those hot babes , I mean attractive young ladies in your newest photo gallery? Does Mrs. Market know about them? We realize you excel in all areas, but you don't have to rub it in.

billyjoe

[B.J]

Is that picture (photo gallery) of the wrestlers in body paint and spikes the Road Warriors? Is it you and a buddy dressed up as the Road Warriors?

[Zenprofit]

Scientific Proof of why MM is a Genius


For all you high-brow thinkers, sink your brain matter into this scientific paper:

http://www.bauer.uh.edu/TGeorge/papers/gh4-paper.pdf

The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing
THOMAS J. GEORGE and CHUAN YANG HWANG
ABSTRACT

When coupled with a stock’s current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52-week high price explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52-week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52-week high do not reverse in the long run.These results indicate that short-term momentum and long-term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market’s response to news.

[B.J]

Is that picture (photo gallery) of the wrestlers in body paint and spikes the Road Warriors? Is it you and a buddy dressed up as the Road Warriors?

Man, if Hawk and Animal weren't enough, I also see a picture from "The Warriors". Keep the pix coming!

[mrmarket]

Man, if Hawk and Animal weren't enough, I also see a picture from "The Warriors". Keep the pix coming!

You sees what you get when you mess with the Orphans?