MRK- wise move?

[jiesen]

bottom fishing

Jiesen,

I just checked the price on MRK, and we're looking at 27.52. It seems your bottom fishing expedition has proved to be very, very successful. I am here to offer my sincere congratulations to you, and an apology for urging you to bail. I was wrong. Great job!

Now, if you can bottom fish this good all the time, would you mind telling us what kind of worm you are using?

Unfortunately no, my bottom fishing has rarely been as dead-on as this one. I'm extremely pleased to have entered MRK at 26 and still plan to bail if we see 25, but that's looking less and less likely as the days go on.

It's probably a fluke that I nailed this one, but I hope that I can do it again next time, anyway. Who knows? Maybe I am getting the hang of this whole investing thing after all...

[New-born baby]

Why 25?

Jiessen,

You already know I only give bad advice, so take that into account here. But how about this idea: why not move your sell stop up to 26.50, and if MRK drops, you still have a profit? I would hate to let a profit turn into a loss.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen, GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN !!! Just heard a report from FDA hearings. They mentioned the number 100,000 deaths saying an earlier estimate of 10,000 was way too low.
billyjoe

[jiesen]

All the talk of 100,000 deaths is out there already, and has been for some time. But that's all it is--- talk. The only real loss it translates to right now is the loss of Vioxx revenue. The lawsuits will come, but won't be nearly as devastating as what's currently priced in.

How many deaths have cigarettes caused? When will the lawsuits send MO to Ch. 11? Proving Vioxx caused 10,000 deaths will be quite a legal trick- let alone 100,000. And proving Merck was negligent in selling Vioxx is another trick altogether. The lawyers will have to work pretty hard for their cut this time, unless they decide to settle it early for a lot less than what's priced into the stock. My guess is there'll be a settlement in the next two years, sending the share price back over 40.

I just hope I don't get stopped out at 25 before then... I'd hate to miss out on the rebound when it happens. I may even move my stop down, with the market, as we seem to be heading that way.

[Websman]

I like your style Jiesen. That's what I call trading with guts! The volume was down a little today and not a bad drop considering todays lousy action. You may just get your rebound next week.

Webs...

[jiesen]

MRK is still braving the bad Vioxx winds.... but even after the hefty 0.38 dividend, it's up $2 from 26. I'm moving my mental stop down to 24 in part to compensate for the dividend, and also because I don't want to lose it if it gets hammered down to 25.

[jiesen]

wow. MRK's been doing better than I had hoped. I think 30 is very likely this week. If it goes over 30 soon, I'll consider selling it, and waiting for a pullback to get back in.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You're making us MRK bashers look bad. Sometimes the market is like the bizarro world to me (alternate opposite dimension in 1960's superman comic books).
billyjoe

[jiesen]

yeah, well you have to go against the flow to make money sometimes...

the biggest red flags pop up for me when I hear everybody saying the same thing: "You just GOTTA do X!"

[spikefader]

yeah, well you have to go against the flow to make money sometimes...

the biggest red flags pop up for me when I hear everybody saying the same thing: "You just GOTTA do X!"

But jiensen, you just GOTTA target that red arrow!!!!

[jiesen]

stop it spike, you're making me drool.

[jiesen]

yay! MRK is up another buck today.

Now I have to seriously think about taking my money and running. $32-33 is my near term target right now...

[spikefader]

yay! MRK is up another buck today.

Now I have to seriously think about taking my money and running. $32-33 is my near term target right now...

Don't rush into the decision. If today's gap remains there at close of market today, then you have an island reversal - and a likely very nice strong run up - very likely to fill that huge gap. Don't do anything you're going to regret in 4-8 weeks!

[spikefader]

You have likely picked the bottom as well as I pick my nose when no-one's looking!
Here's a picture I like about your long. Good place to target? In the fullness of time you will have time to reflect and perhaps regret!
I'll shut up now

[jiesen]

yay! MRK is up another buck! And no, I'm not getting tired of saying that...