Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[New-born baby]

Karel's suggestion

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

[Websman]

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

Sure Karel. I'm open for any thoughts!

Webs...

[Karel]

Sure Karel. I'm open for any thoughts!

Well, I don't know that I qualify. I don't own SIRI and I don't own any other stock that currently is going hyperbolic. For stocks and ETF's that I do own for the longer term I like the "cream off your gains" routine. With those stocks, I will also add when the stock retraces, but that looks like a very bad idea with SIRI and its ilk.

I treat things very mechanically, as I can't afford to watch intraday charts. Something like: after an X% gain, sell Y% of your gains. With Y = 100, you sell 100% of your gains regularly, and you keep your exposure in $$$ the same. Rationale: if you wanted to risk that many $$$ down then, why would you want to risk more when the valuation becomes (even more) ridiculous? With Y over 1000 you will be gradually selling out of your position; with Y under 100 you will be accumulating, dollarwise (perhaps not a good idea with SIRI).

In my mechanical handling of such a position, I would calculate one or two sell points and put limit orders in for those points. Don't be a dick for a tick, and all that.

So: sell into the hype and leave those other suckers holding the baby.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

So: sell into the hype and leave those other suckers holding the baby.

Regards,

Karel

That pretty much sums it up in one sentence. I like the way you think Karel!

Webs...

[mrmarket]

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

I would recommend stops for stocks such as SIRI or any other stocks with unreasonable valuations that cannot be justified by reasonable business modeling.

I don't use stops for MM stocks because I am confident the stocks I own are underpriced relative to their future cash flows.

That's right...$$$MR. MARKET$$$ is an advocate of stops.

[Websman]

That's right...$$$MR. MARKET$$$ is an advocate of stops.

Wow! I am shocked! The huge one has advocated a stop...Where's Spike when you need him. Are you feeling well Mr Market???

[Websman]

After reveiwing the chart and putting all, non-Vulcan emotions aside I'm leaning more towards caution. This thing has been screaming high tight flag for the past few weeks. I do see a little more upside but I would advise all fellow Sirians to be very careful and set a stop price. I don't use stops, but I will set a mental stop to unload my shares in the event that SIRI starts to take the plunge. I will sell and buy back in after it drops.
I still believe that SIRI is going to suprise a lot of people in the next few years. Satellite radio will do to FM radio what FM did to AM.

cautious but optimistic...that's the approach!

Webs...

[thebign1]

I do see a little more upside but I would advise all fellow Sirians to be very careful and set a stop price. I don't use stops, but I will set a mental stop to unload my shares in the event that SIRI starts to take the plunge. I will sell and buy back in after it drops.


cautious but optimistic...that's the approach!

Webs...

Hey Webs, Why sell on the way down? If my calculations are correct, you should be up 125%.....si or no....Don't be greedy!
I am selling a little less than half of my SIRI for a small profit (cash) and leaving the greater half (all profit) alone. I also sold those shares of NUTR that you sold me for a 15% gain on Friday.

Regards, Norm

[abk33139]

After thinking a lot about it, I decided to take the advice of some individuals on the board and I sold SIRI this morning. I sold for $7.84, which is exactly double what I paid. I feel that the stock will still go up, but I think I'll look for a re-enter point after the holidays when it goes down again. Thanks to everyone who's contributed to this topic. I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge with me. Now....what to do with all that money that's back in my account to spend.....

Alison

[abk33139]

Looks like I could have sold for more (SIRI's at $7.91 right now at 11 a.m.), but I'm still happy with my sell point.

What did other folks who are holding SIRI do today?

Alison

[Karel]

Yes, after such an abrupt decision, the stock may very well decide to continue its run for a while. We see it all the time with $$$Mr.Market$$$'s stock picks. After we cash in, the run just continues (in a lot of cases). But a double on one of your first stocks, without an idea, and without a plan , can't be bad. You might want to figure out how you could have played this one better, but it might be more profitable (truly!) to start thinking about: what plans are there ($$$Mr.Market$$$'s is one), which do I like/does fit my style, how about implementing it?

$$$Mr.Market$$$ outlines his plan on his personal website (scroll down!) and on this forum you'll find my approximation of $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method, with ready made screens and a spreadsheet.

$$$Mr.Market$$$'s method is a pretty safe way to pick winners, although not an absolutely safe way. The current percentage is about 80% winners, but I think that's a bit worse than usual.

Regards,

Karel

[mrmarket]

Looks like I could have sold for more (SIRI's at $7.91 right now at 11 a.m.), but I'm still happy with my sell point.

What did other folks who are holding SIRI do today?

Alison

To that...I must add....

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

[scifos]

To that...I must add....

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

I should also like to add... No one ever made anything watching a stock they've sold.

I used to watch stocks I'd sold, but it just messed with my mind too much. Now I only check up on them when they turn up again in my screens/searches. My mentality is, once its done its done. That being said, its not really done until, like Karel said, you analize your performance and learn your lessons from the trade.

[Websman]

I'm still in SIRI. I set my sell point at $6.85 and have been very suprised that it hasn't dropped to that point.

If SIRI holds it's gains today, I may have to up my sell point a little. I'm going to be very shocked if it keeps running, but anything could happen.

[lak]

I am still holding my shares at 130% gain........ I too can't understand what is going on with this stock and watch it often since the rug could come out at any minute. I have set a mental stop/alert and it keeps moving up with the stock price. Here is my Stop question. I used to set them often and still do in some cases...... however I have heard of the horror stories of setting the stop and having someone 'reach' down and buy it. Is this really possible? I need to study stops move to get a real handle on them, and this is a good time as SIRI needs one imho.
As far as seeling....... like MR.Market said....... a gain is a gain. Bottom line. Staying even is even a gain sometimes! ha
I never look back after a sale....... why? Once you study what you did/didn't do right..... move on, unless you are selling into a slide and gonna jump in again soon.
Would love advice or info on the STOP myth.
good luck gang