Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[spikefader]

OK, guys, good news. Channel turn up today. Getting ready for blast off. If 7.00 cracks with volume, I think it's up up and away.

BUT, as with all ascending triangles there comes an apex where if price hasn't broken out bullishly but rather price begins to drop, then it can fall fast and hard. Recall ZICA's ascending triangle that failed and fell relentlessly from 6.70 or something down to 2.17 in the space of 4 months. This is where discipline counts; if the bull fails to show up, then I'll be the first to leave the party early before the ugliness shows up. That SHS targets 5.80 if the neckline is broken, so careful out there.

The logical stop now is either under the ascending line/neckline, so I'll be using a 6.79 stop. The alternative and tighter stop is tucked in below the hourly PSAR trend indicator, around say 6.90.

OK, that's the plan. I'll pick some up in the morning at $6.97 and I'll be risking 2.5% for a target of 86% ($13.00 resistance). That's a R/R of 31.6!!!! lol OK, so I'm aiming high.....but ya never know

[skiracer]

Based on Spike's and your input and a gut feeling I bought 1000 shares of SIRI at $6.95 on 6/27/05......I am making 20 dollars already whoopie ..but hopefully the BIG DOG (SIRI) will take me to pie in the sky. Remember if you don't run with the lead dog.......the view is always the same. Not to throw caution to the wind I set my stop at $6.60.

Peter,
Good play. On the risk side you can only lose the difference between the entry price and your stop price, but the reward side looks very enticing from this point. Like Spike stated, if we can break 7 with some volume we might see a very nice breakout bounce. The last three days have been a fight between the bulls and bears but it has held it's range on less than average volume.
Only time will tell which way the wind is going to blow here but we seem to have a big edge on our side with this particular setup. Can't ask for more than that going for yourself.
I set a stop at 6.75 so I can only lose .23 from this my entry. Good luck.

[Peter Hansen]

Ski & Spike

Ski and Spike thank you for your detailed analysis. I don't think SIRI will be on Mr Market's Top 5 list, but if you are careful, money can be made here. According to Yahoo history prices........ Siri traded for 38 cents back in March 03 and hit $60.66 in February of 2000......definitely not one for the faint of heart. Pregnant nuns, women and children are advised not to have SIRI in their portfolios....LOL!

[spikefader]

The big guy upstairs must be on my side today; got busy with some other things and didn't buy SIRI and I see the drop today and it's already below my stop point so I'll reassess the chart and post it.

[spikefader]

OK, here's the new plan: It still sets up bullish. Ascending triangle still there, and the neckline of the SHS hasn't broken yet.

Just took a long SIRI 6.84, in anticipation of a small R shoulder and neckline break to follow. Didn't want to wait for 6.81 since it's only 3 pennies, and the L shoulder price is offering support here.
My stop 6.69.

[B.J]

Well, I've been stopped out already. CRAP!

[spikefader]

Well, I've been stopped out already. CRAP!

Bad luck B.J.

Here's what I'm seeing intraday now. This is a good Silver medal entry at 6.91 I think; but the stop is the tricky thing now. I got a gold entry so I'm using a stop under low of day now.

[B.J]

Thanks for the chart Spike. I'm giving it SIRIUS thought (boooo bad joke)

[spikefader]

Thanks for the chart Spike. I'm giving it SIRIUS thought (boooo bad joke)

LOL good one harhar.
You're welcome. Silver entry only 1% worse than the Gold today. Both are valid on a technical basis. Both are disciplined entries. But as always, even Gold and Silver entries are not guarantees of success; just guarantees that you're following discipline if you take them when they show up

Good luck!

[B.J]

Back in but only half as much as before. I'll commit more when I'm sure the latest triangle support holds.

Of course, if the neck (and triangle) fails, all bets are off.

[Thomrich]

greetings,

In with ya at 6.90,missed HANS at 95 today,someone else got filled

Thanks for your dedication.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings again Spike,

At your convenience could you peek at ERF?Im in at 38.40,and I see a channel target of 42ish?Am I anywhere close?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings again Spike,

At your convenience could you peek at ERF?Im in at 38.40,and I see a channel target of 42ish?Am I anywhere close?

cordially Tom

Nice entry. I see 44.20ish as upper channel on a 1-year chart. That would fit nicely with a 5th wave completion off the daily or better yet, the alternate count is it's about to start the 1st of another series after an c completion 38.01 which happens to be the beautiful channel long day last week. I prefer that second count actually. The 38.01 looks like a 2 completion and you're about to get the 3. And on the weekly, it looks like it's headed for 60.00 in it's bigger 5th. You've got the bullflag formation from 32.00, so you're good to rock and roll Nice pick!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Thanks for the analysis,its great having you here more often.

Ive noticed HANS seems to give buying opps. in the AM,Ill wait to see if I can snag one tommorow.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Revised intraday count and thoughts: