My 2005 picks ELN,IPXL,DWA

[kingofthehill]

ELN - possible double from here target $40-50

IPXL - generic drug maker buyout target $25.00

DWA- Dreamworkswill make a nice move

I am very strong on ELN & IPXL


DWA - is a side bet


good luck to all

[scifos]

I generally don't make long term bets in the stock market. But I really like COGT for '05. Other than that, I will play 'em as they come.

[billyjoe]

scifos,
COGT is an impressive stock, scifos , but what do you find most interesting about it? I see 3 different analyst ratings on it since November. My two biggest concerns would be #1 are they dominating their specialty or have an insurmountable headstart on the competition and #2 are current government contracts just the tip of the iceberg or an invitation to competitors to all take a bite. If the answers are positive, you'll be counting some major coin in 2005 .
billyjoe

[scifos]

Billy, here's why I like COGT so much:

Enrollment in US-VISIT (The main part of Bush's new immigration plan) for visitors applying for a visa is done overseas at the visa-issuing post where each visitor has his or her biographic and biometric information, including two index fingers cans and a digital photograph, captured by a State Department official. The Department of Homeland Security estimates the new requirements will affect 33,000 visitors per day but will add only 15 seconds to the processing time as the fingerprinting is done digitally.

While not as accurate as the standard 10-print method, most of the fingerprinting in the US-VISIT program will be of the 2-print variety (using two index fingers), due to cost and time constraints. Cogent's technology will run the 2-print fingerprint program for the Department of Homeland Security and I think Cogent will leapfrog all other competitors in the fingerprint arena.

COGT is the primary company I am following in the biometric "space." Cogent supplies biometric solutions to a wide spectrum of government and law enforcement agencies around the world. For example, the company currently runs the fingerprint ID system for the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service at 500+ border crossings. Cogent is unusual among biometric companies in that they provide the back-end data storage, analysis and retrieval system that makes the front-end work. This dual hardware/software combination has advantages in terms of speed, accuracy and upgradability. It gives Cogent two revenue streams and also allows the company's technology to be easily exported to foreign governments in customized stand-alone systems. Foreign government sales will be one of COGT's main share price drivers going forward. In fact, they already are. Ex....

Cogent was selected to provide its AFIS (Automated Fingerprint Identification System) solution for the Venezuelan national referendum, which took place on August 15, 2004. For the original deployment, valued at $54 million, Cogent provided customized software and specially configured hardware, as well as installation and maintenance services. Cogent captured voters' fingerprints, created a database and matched the fingerprints to authenticate voters' identities and prevent duplicate registrations. The contract required Cogent to return match results in less than 20 seconds. No problem. The company was able to meet this requirement and deliver the entire system in less than 60 days. On the day of the National Referendum, over 5.5 million people had their fingerprints captured, searched, and enrolled in 14 hours. By the way, Venezuela just put in a follow-on $20 million order for a system to handle mayoral and regional elections.

The company has high margins, plenty of cash, stellar management, best-in-class technology and is already profitable. I believe COGT will emerge as the premier biometric company in the world in a few years. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see this company eventually take over the government's entire fingerprint and counter-terrorism ID database operation. Here's why.

Efforts to create and implement a master terrorist 'watch list,' a priority for the Bush administration, are lagging badly because of a lack of leadership at the Department of Homeland Security and other bureaucratic problems. A highly critical report found that the effort to interface the 10 watch lists now in use by various agencies is failing miserably, due to poor coordination, under-staffing and technical snafus. According to the report, the problems reflect a "pattern of ad hoc approaches to counterterrorism" throughout the government. Rep. Jim Turner wrote that a study by researchers at Stanford University concluded "the current two-finger system is no more than 53 percent effective in matching fingerprints with poor image quality against the government's biometric terrorist watch-list." Well, what did you expect? It is the government after all.

The US-VISIT program is going to be developed and expanded over the balance of the decade, and the various databases and technologies will gradually be standardized and integrated effectively. As part of that sea change, don't be surprised to see the entire US biometric law-enforcement system eventually outsourced to Cogent.

Cogent reported stellar earnings and revenue growth on 11/1/2004, including a 37% sequential quarterly increase in revenues and 28 cents/share in earnings. I thought venture capitalists and pre-IPO investors would take some profits, but that did not happen.

[IIC]

COGT is my over $30 Pick of the Year for '05. I am anticipating a blowout EPS report and Great Guidance...I emailed them 2 days ago to find out when the next report is...I will post their answer on my thread.

You know it is actually a Chinese owned company, which I thought was interesting as I follow China fairly closely. I'm considering some Calls on it...IIC

PS...Their HQ is in So. Pasadena, CA

[stocks54]

COGT Options

IIC,

Any suggestion on which option to buy?

Regards

[scifos]

I finally got into COGT today @ 30.50. Will probably hold through ups and downs. This one is for the long haul.

[New-born baby]

I don't understand it . . . .

COGT is my over $30 Pick of the Year for '05. I am anticipating a blowout EPS report and Great Guidance...I emailed them 2 days ago to find out when the next report is...I will post their answer on my thread.

You know it is actually a Chinese owned company, which I thought was interesting as I follow China fairly closely. I'm considering some Calls on it...IIC

PS...Their HQ is in So. Pasadena, CA

I know I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but can you tell me why we'd let China run our immigration technology???? DUH!

Remember: it was the Chinese govt that was shorting LU today.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
The Chinese are excellent at monitoring and controlling people.
Haven't you seen film of about a billion Chinese all marching in lock step ?
billyjoe

[Websman]

New-born,
The Chinese are excellent at monitoring and controlling people.
Haven't you seen film of about a billion Chinese all marching in lock step ?
billyjoe

The Chinese don't mind eliminating anyone who gets out of line. I was ready to kiss the ground and eat a McDonalds hamburger when I got back from Shanghai.

[scifos]

COGT Earnings on the 22nd. This will be the make or break for me on this stock. Its expected to grow 100% this year, lofty goals. and I expect it to get greatly rewarded if it's on track for that or greatly punished if not, due to the high PE. They finally got a lot of their homeland security funding in the end of 04. The current EPS estimate is 0.09, if they beat, I'm looking for $40 to $45

[Michaelk005]

I picked up some shares of IPXL at $15.99 on fri. I like this stock and annalysts see it hitting a 20-23$ target price. Zacks also has it at Buy, so Does JPM.

[scifos]

Cogent Systems Announces Record Fourth Quarter Revenues

Cogent Systems COGT today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2004.

Fourth quarter 2004 net revenues were $31.8 million, which is a 36% sequential increase over net revenues of $23.4 million for the immediately preceding third quarter of 2004. Net income on a GAAP basis for the fourth quarter of 2004 was $9.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, which compares to GAAP net income of $20.4 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2004.

Cogent's fourth quarter of 2004 GAAP results included $1.7 million of non-cash charges related to the amortization of stock-based compensation. Excluding the effects of stock-based compensation and using a 38% tax rate, non-GAAP net income was $10.0 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to $6.9 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, for the immediately preceding period after excluding the effects of similar items and a net income tax benefit of $11.6 million.

"We are pleased to report record revenues in our fourth quarter, with sequential revenue growth of 36%," commented Ming Hsieh, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cogent. "Strong sales in the fourth quarter were bolstered by increasing sequential revenues to two major customers -- the National Electoral Council of Venezuela and the Department of Homeland Security -- as well as a number of smaller contracts at both international and state and local levels. For the year, revenues increased 173% to $87.7 million, a testament to the strength of our technology, product offering and customer relationships. We believe that our AFIS solution is the most technologically advanced in the world, with clear advantages in terms of overall performance, scalability, integration and cost of ownership."

For the year ended December 31, 2004, revenues increased 173% to $87.7 million from $32.2 million in 2003. Net income on a GAAP basis was $42.6 million in 2004 or $0.56 per diluted share which compares to $9.2 million or $0.14 per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2003. Excluding the effects of stock-based compensation and a net income tax benefit in 2004 of $6.4 million and using a 38% tax rate, non-GAAP net income in 2004 was $28.9 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, compared to non-GAAP net income of $7.0 million, or $0.10 per diluted share in 2003, which excludes the effects of stock-based compensation.

"Backlog of $127 million at year end points to growing revenues from our existing customer base and recent wins at new customers," commented Paul Kim, Chief Financial Officer of Cogent. "As we begin 2005, we continue to see growing opportunities in the government, civil and commercial sectors."

The Company will host a conference call and live webcast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time) today to discuss these results and anticipated results for fiscal year 2005. Cogent will offer a live webcast of the conference call, accessible from the "Investor Relations" section of the Company's website (www.cogentsystems.com). The webcast will be archived for a period of 15 days. A telephonic replay of the conference call will also be available two hours after the call and will run for two days. To hear the replay, parties in the United States and Canada should call 800-405-2236 and enter pass code 11022256. International parties should call 303-590-3000 and enter pass code 11022256.

Note Regarding Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Certain of the information set forth herein, including non-GAAP net income and earnings per share, may be considered non-GAAP financial measures. Cogent believes this information is useful to investors because it provides a basis for measuring Cogent's available capital resources, the operating performance of Cogent's business and Cogent's cash flow, excluding stock-based compensation and a non-recurring income tax benefit that would normally be included in the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Cogent's management uses these non-GAAP financial measures along with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in evaluating Cogent's operating performance, capital resources and cash flow. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, financial information presented in compliance with GAAP, and non-financial measures as reported by Cogent may not be comparable to similarly titled amounts reported by other companies.

About Cogent Systems Cogent is a leading provider of Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems, or AFIS, and other fingerprint biometric solutions to governments, law enforcement agencies and other organizations worldwide. Cogent's AFIS solutions enable customers to capture fingerprint images electronically, encode fingerprints into searchable files and accurately compare a set of fingerprints to a database containing potentially millions of fingerprints in seconds.

[skiracer]

I've been in an out of Ipxl a few times over the last month. First time at 16.25 an exited at 17.25. Again at 17.25 an exited at 16.07. Last week at 16 an am still holding. Today was what I was looking for to start with. Have you heard anything about reporting earnings. I thought they were supposed to report on 2/15/05. I haven't seen or heard anything.