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Bored? Depressed that the NAZ has been down 4 straight days to start '05?Then read this . . . .
LOSING STREAKS
Since 1930, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has never had a streak of 14 up days in a row. In fact, only one "winning" streak of 13 has happened since then.
Conversely, the DJIA has never had 13 down days in a row. In fact, it has only had one 12 day losing streak in that time.
Currently, the NASDAQ has had four losing days in a row, counting today's minor loss at the end. In the history of the Dow since 1930, there have been only 306 4-day losing streaks, and only 146 5-day losing streaks. The odds of a five day losing streak, if you already have had a 4 day losing streak, is only 25%.
Here are the odds, according to the history of the Dow, of a losing streak according to the number of days: If you have one down day, then the odds of
a 2nd day-55%/ If you have a two day losing streak, the odds of a 3rd day-27%; 4 day-26%; 5 day-25%; 6 day-23%; 7 day-20%;
8 day-14%; 9 day-13%; 10 day-10%; 11 day-100%; 12 day-33%; 13-has never yet happened.
WINNING STREAKS
2 day-60% 3 day-33% 4 day-26% 5 days-25% 6 days-31% 7 day-20%
8 day-25% 9 day-41% 10 day-29% 11 day-14% 12 day-14% 13 day-50%
Long winning streaks are rare: since 1930, streaks of:
13--happened once
12--happened once
11--only twice (one ended at twelve days, the other at thirteen!) So in effect, there have been no 11 day winning streaks in 75 years!
10--7 streaks
9--14
8--24
7--34
LESSONS:
1. A green first day is followed by a green second day 60% of the time.
2. A red first day is followed by a red second day 55% of the time.
3. But three red days in a row happens only 27% of the time. And three greens only 33% of the time.
4. Prices cannot go up forever.
5. Prices cannot go down forever (although the Dow fell all the way to 34 in 1934).
I hope that this information helps you sleep better tonight.
LOSING STREAKS
Since 1930, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has never had a streak of 14 up days in a row. In fact, only one "winning" streak of 13 has happened since then.
Conversely, the DJIA has never had 13 down days in a row. In fact, it has only had one 12 day losing streak in that time.
Currently, the NASDAQ has had four losing days in a row, counting today's minor loss at the end. In the history of the Dow since 1930, there have been only 306 4-day losing streaks, and only 146 5-day losing streaks. The odds of a five day losing streak, if you already have had a 4 day losing streak, is only 25%.
Here are the odds, according to the history of the Dow, of a losing streak according to the number of days: If you have one down day, then the odds of
a 2nd day-55%/ If you have a two day losing streak, the odds of a 3rd day-27%; 4 day-26%; 5 day-25%; 6 day-23%; 7 day-20%;
8 day-14%; 9 day-13%; 10 day-10%; 11 day-100%; 12 day-33%; 13-has never yet happened.
WINNING STREAKS
2 day-60% 3 day-33% 4 day-26% 5 days-25% 6 days-31% 7 day-20%
8 day-25% 9 day-41% 10 day-29% 11 day-14% 12 day-14% 13 day-50%
Long winning streaks are rare: since 1930, streaks of:
13--happened once
12--happened once
11--only twice (one ended at twelve days, the other at thirteen!) So in effect, there have been no 11 day winning streaks in 75 years!
10--7 streaks
9--14
8--24
7--34
LESSONS:
1. A green first day is followed by a green second day 60% of the time.
2. A red first day is followed by a red second day 55% of the time.
3. But three red days in a row happens only 27% of the time. And three greens only 33% of the time.
4. Prices cannot go up forever.
5. Prices cannot go down forever (although the Dow fell all the way to 34 in 1934).
I hope that this information helps you sleep better tonight.
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