New-born Baby's Cans: Making Money in a Down Market

[TFred]

Greetings NBB,

Doesnt the increased value of the $C make your units more valuable?Along with the value of the dist compared to the US counterpart?I get confused with currency,but I thought it was good for Cans if the $C strenghtened.

If Im wrong would the AMROYs be a better place to be?HGT will be the low 20s soon.

cordially Tom

[TFred]

Greetings,

NB could you give a read on this:



If my read is correct,looks like 4points in it?

Pennwest and Petrofund are merging,this could be another COS.I want to find the next ex-date to see if a buying opp. presents itself.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Greetings,

NB could you give a read on this:



If my read is correct,looks like 4points in it?

Pennwest and Petrofund are merging,this could be another COS.I want to find the next ex-date to see if a buying opp. presents itself.

cordially Tom

Tom,

$6 Canadian in it, my friend! Beautiful work! PWT is the second best trust out there! Nice going!

[New-born baby]

Greetings NBB,

Doesnt the increased value of the $C make your units more valuable?Along with the value of the dist compared to the US counterpart?I get confused with currency,but I thought it was good for Cans if the $C strenghtened.

If Im wrong would the AMROYs be a better place to be?HGT will be the low 20s soon.

cordially Tom

Tom,
If you own a Can, and the $C get stronger, your distribution that you actually keep is larger. However, it puts pressure on the Can itself to lower dividends . . . .

[TFred]

Greetings NB,

Thanks for your insight,as always appreciated.Penn went ex on the 26th,and it dipped a bit,could be the lows for a while.Im debating whether to buy PWT or PTF,both on a tear.

One factor missing in the rising $C,and falling US$ implication is its almost impossible for oil prices to drop with the dollar.As the US$ gets cheaper,more are required to pucrchase a bbl.

As of tonight the $C was poised to break .90,the DAY I bought at 12.80,I sold today at 12.98,beating the .14 dist amt,and I think it due for a drop.Looking to do it again before next dist. and maybe stay for the ex date,since it could very well be close to 13.5 US cents.

Thanks again Brother,

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Greetings NB,

Thanks for your insight,as always appreciated.Penn went ex on the 26th,and it dipped a bit,could be the lows for a while.Im debating whether to buy PWT or PTF,both on a tear.

One factor missing in the rising $C,and falling US$ implication is its almost impossible for oil prices to drop with the dollar.As the US$ gets cheaper,more are required to pucrchase a bbl.

As of tonight the $C was poised to break .90,the DAY I bought at 12.80,I sold today at 12.98,beating the .14 dist amt,and I think it due for a drop.Looking to do it again before next dist. and maybe stay for the ex date,since it could very well be close to 13.5 US cents.

Thanks again Brother,

cordially Tom

You are always welcome, Tom. Here's my "tip" for you: I love PWT, and I also think it is close to time to jump back into PMT.

[TFred]

Greetings NB,

Seems time to revive this thread,quite a few of these are giving impressive yields.

HTE 15%
CNE14%
COS is poised to triple dist amount towards the end of the year,Im picking up as much as I can under $C29.
PWT listed on NYSE today,IB is not showing its new symbol ''PWE".
Any thoughts here MR.Divi.

cordially Tom

[DSteckler]

Tom, those dividends are nice but it still sucks bilge water when the stock drops 20% or more in a matter of a few months.

[New-born baby]

Danger, Will Robinson

Greetings NB,

Seems time to revive this thread,quite a few of these are giving impressive yields.

HTE 15%
CNE14%
COS is poised to triple dist amount towards the end of the year,Im picking up as much as I can under $C29.
PWT listed on NYSE today,IB is not showing its new symbol ''PWE".
Any thoughts here MR.Divi.

cordially Tom

I think there is great danger for the US investor in the Cans right now. Here's why:
1. The USD is going to strengthen. A look at the monthly USD chart shows an inverted head and shoulders, and if that neckline breaks, wowwie, zowwie, it is going to hurt the loonie.
2. Oil chart, $WTI, shows crude near a support level that, should it fail, will
provide a fall down to $58 or so, and make a horrendous resistance level. True, this support could hold, and thereby make an awesome support for crude, but then the economy will be wrecked by $4 or $5 gasoline. So the old Hope-O-Meter is against rising oil prices right now.

In summary, I think Oil has topped for now, and I am leaving the Cans alone until I can determine from the charts which way the ball is going to bounce.

COS: has a PnF target of $22. Bearish chart right now. Fundamentally, COS has some problems with a converter, as one of its three units is off line, and set to hurt production and profits.
I love PMT, but the chart is bearish, so I am leaving it alone.

Here's the USD chart:http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/6283/chart19ux.gif

Here's the weekly crude chart: http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/7787/chart12bq.gif

Here's the daily crude chart:http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8875/chart16ep.gif

[TFred]

I think there is great danger for the US investor in the Cans right now. Here's why:
1. The USD is going to strengthen. A look at the monthly USD chart shows an inverted head and shoulders, and if that neckline breaks, wowwie, zowwie, it is going to hurt the loonie.
2. Oil chart, $WTI, shows crude near a support level that, should it fail, will
provide a fall down to $58 or so, and make a horrendous resistance level. True, this support could hold, and thereby make an awesome support for crude, but then the economy will be wrecked by $4 or $5 gasoline. So the old Hope-O-Meter is against rising oil prices right now.

In summary, I think Oil has topped for now, and I am leaving the Cans alone until I can determine from the charts which way the ball is going to bounce.

COS: has a PnF target of $22. Bearish chart right now. Fundamentally, COS has some problems with a converter, as one of its three units is off line, and set to hurt production and profits.
I love PMT, but the chart is bearish, so I am leaving it alone.

Here's the USD chart:http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/6283/chart19ux.gif

Here's the weekly crude chart: http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/7787/chart12bq.gif

Here's the daily crude chart:http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8875/chart16ep.gif

Greetings,

Im a bit confused by the logic,as in this previous post:

''Tom,
If you own a Can, and the $C get stronger, your distribution that you actually keep is larger. However, it puts pressure on the Can itself to lower dividends . . . .''

You seem to imply a weak dollar would be bad for Cans,now the strenghtening dollar is also bad.

With SU as a major operator of COS Im assuming its bearish also.

IMO Boone Pickens has called this market perfect and $80 before $60 is his projection.Even with oil at $60 most Cans are in good shape IMO.

It will be interesting if a PNF will call COS correctly,with projected distributions to triple by years end,I like it alot.

Is there any sector you like right now ?

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Tom

Tom,
I am in cash right now, waiting for the charts to resolve the issues for me.
You may be very well correct in that oil will hit $80 before $60. The chart is putting the support right on that $68.75 line. Watch that number.

Stronger USD means this:
Say you buy COS at $30 Canadian, currently $27 USD (.90000 exchange rate).

Now suppose USD strengthens against the loonie, and exchange rate goes to .85000. Your $30 COS is now $25.50 USD. And if USD goes to .80000, $24 USD. If COS fall to $22 CD and USD/CD goes to .80000, then your $27 USD purchase is worth $17.60 USD.

CERTAINLY USD/CD and oil price is tied together. They act inversely. IF oil rises, CD rises. IF oil falls, CD falls. The USD chart points to a possible head and shoulders strengthening of the USD. The oil chart shows that crude is right on the line of falling through the floor. Therefore Newborn is in stalk mode to see which way things will move.

[New-born baby]

Pwe

PWE is functioning on IB for me. $49.65 per share, lower than the issue price.

[TFred]

Greetings,

Not sure why I cant get PWE,shows price if $1.45?

My strategy is to buy on these corrections,which most are of by 20%,and hold for my daughters future.With Kurt Wulff projecting $150 oil by 2015,I would think mostof these will be paying much higher,and worth alot more.

I know you dont believe weve reached peak oil output,as somone who does,folks buying at $70 must think its cheap.

I'll leave this thread alone since its not been popular,and sentiment seems negative on the sector in general.I will add that if you are correct,I will likely hedge my portfolio with a short of USO.

cordially Tom

[TFred]

Greetings,

I notice that PWT on the TSE is up 3%,should buy it there I guess.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Greetings,

Not sure why I cant get PWE,shows price if $1.45?

My strategy is to buy on these corrections,which most are of by 20%,and hold for my daughters future.With Kurt Wulff projecting $150 oil by 2015,I would think mostof these will be paying much higher,and worth alot more.

I know you dont believe weve reached peak oil output,as somone who does,folks buying at $70 must think its cheap.

I'll leave this thread alone since its not been popular,and sentiment seems negative on the sector in general.I will add that if you are correct,I will likely hedge my portfolio with a short of USO.

cordially Tom

Tom,
You don't need to "leave this thread alone." I like your ideas and posts.

Just consider what you are doing: you are buying Cans based on what Kurt Wulff says will happen by 2015, 9 years from now. Yes, I do believe in peak oil. I also believe that the Lord will give us an alternative. In the late 1800s, writers were forecasting that with the population growth, we would not have enough wood to heat our homes. Then came coal burning stoves and natural gas fired furnaces. Yes, we would have had a wood shortage, but we had technilogical advances so that wood stoves were no longer mandatory. That may happen again.

It is possible that you will be correct, and oil will be $150. But what kind of inflation will that bring? And what kind of slowing of the global economy will that produce?