Portfolio of the Week

[Rob]

Week 39 (13), Day 2

[billyjoe]

Rob,
How can Lye and IIC go long and short on the same stock , the same day and both lose ? Is it all about tic a tic a tic a timin' ?

-------------billyjoe

[Rob]

How can Lye and IIC go long and short on the same stock , the same day and both lose ?

Check the dates, times, and prices.

[billyjoe]

Check the dates, times, and prices.

Good advice ,Rob . I should read first before posting or get my eyes checked.

-----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

damn, that ACOR sure is a tough bull to ride!

[IIC]

damn, that ACOR sure is a tough bull to ride!

It's a tough bear to ride too.

This is pretty embarrassing...Shame to see the whole quarter go down the drain with one pick. But the week is still young...there's plenty of time for the masses to come to their senses...At least I didn't play it for real...whew!!!...IIC

[New-born baby]

Amln

Yeah, ACOR is a tough bull to ride. But look at AMLN. I shorted the dog at $43.94 and it fell all the way down to $42.xx, hit support, and bounced. It made a long lower shadow yesterday and today. Ordinarily I'd say it marks a trend reversal, but today the move upwards was on lower volume (bearish). This stock feels like MFLX to me. Lots of emotion driving it higher, and when a selloff comes, some pretty emotional bulls step up to push it higher--until the bulls run out of cash. I am expecting such a play here sooner or later. The chart shows a rounding top. It ought to rollover sometime. If things get too excited it can fill a gap way down low.

Here's the weekly:

[jiesen]

I was wondering why you didn't cover when it hit 42.xx yesterday... Guess the charts say some funny things sometimes. Sooner or later, though, AMLN will start to take off again. I don't know what the catalyst will be- either the scrips passing 50k next month, or some of the 13M short shares start feeling the heat and rushing to the exits. Bulls won't need to put any more money in to make AMLN rise. In fact, the institutions have 101% of the shares locked up already (per Yahoo). All it takes is the shorts tripping over themselves to cover for a $30, $50, or $80/share stop-loss and presto- AMLN is a $100 stock.

[jiesen]

make that 15M short, not 13M!

http://nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?searchby=Detail&IssueID=15312

this is gonna make for one heckuva squeeze!

[mimo_100]

Hey Rob,

Who is that guy between Webs and Jiesen that doesn't appear on the chart? Does he have to pay CA$H to get charted?

[New-born baby]

I was wondering why you didn't cover when it hit 42.xx yesterday... Guess the charts say some funny things sometimes. Sooner or later, though, AMLN will start to take off again. I don't know what the catalyst will be- either the scrips passing 50k next month, or some of the 13M short shares start feeling the heat and rushing to the exits. Bulls won't need to put any more money in to make AMLN rise. In fact, the institutions have 101% of the shares locked up already (per Yahoo). All it takes is the shorts tripping over themselves to cover for a $30, $50, or $80/share stop-loss and presto- AMLN is a $100 stock.

Thanks for the reply.
No the chart DID say that $42.xx was support, and in real life I covered my short options. I let it run here because I expected AMLN to continue to hammer that support line all week. Ya never know about these things. What did surprise me was the strength with which AMLN fully recovered that $2 dip in just an hour and a half. And there was selling going on. AMLN traded 1.2 million shares in an hour (daily avg 2.4 m).

$100 stock? Presto? Yes, that would be "presto!" Chart is bearish almost any way you look at it: RSI, EMAs, patterns, trend, etc. And then FA wise, AMLN is overbought trading at over 10X sales, with new competition coming on line between now and December, competition in the form of a pill and not an injection (ease of use will make a difference). So there are reasons, both TA and FA, to be short.

Question: on what day does AMLN announce the weekly scrips totals?

[Rob]

Who is that guy between Webs and Jiesen . . . ?

Apologies, Mimo ol' bean. That guy will appear on the next summary's NSC (Neon Spaghetti Chart).

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Sell MSFT buy RGR long. Thanks

---------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Rob,
Sell MSFT buy RGR long. Thanks

---------billyjoe

Speaking of MSFT . . . .
Let's see: new operating system coming out 1st quarter 2007. P/E 22.
Room to grow since that sector averages a P/E near 30. What thinkest thou?

[Rob]

Doug, I hate to tell you (and you probably already know anyway) but DIVX is kickin' boo-tay today ... would be leading the pack had you held it.