Portfolio of the Week

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Short DELL. Nothing to do with exploding batteries.

-----------billyjoe

[Rob]

Week 33 (7), Day 2

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike...Perhaps you could post a chart explaining your comment about the testing $2.00.

Sure Ski. Here's the daily.

Profit-taking tag today produced gap n crap -18% from the open sheesh...Sorry man....I was rootin' fer ya and I actually didn't even watch this after the open.

So anyway, chart notes say most of it.

The latest stuff I'm publishing at my site deals with Bollinger Bands with settings of 100 and 2.5 (NOT with log scale) It's been something I have always looked at but I kept it close to the chest. Anyway I recommend people at least look at it and weigh up in assessing bias. Each charting program is slightly different, and the one I like most is http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javac...sp?symbol=hsoa and you want to press DETACH for a better look. Insert those 100 and 2.5 settings and turn log scale off and you'll see that the lower band for HSOA is at 3.00 and suggestive of falling with any increased volatility in price from today forward. I'm estimating the $2.00 or $1.80 price support might coincide with any selloff down to that lower band, which should be great support for a tradeable bounce. Daily close under the band produces Burnt Toast qualities. OK, there it is. The Burnt Toast secret is out. Don't burn the house down yall!

For anyone too lazy to setup those settings, feel free to visit my growing 'Chart Index' page and have a look around. Each ticker link takes you to preformatted charts with those settings on multi time frames, as well as psar trends with MFI, which I use to do some of the Creme of the Crop/ PSP filtering with. If yall want me to add a ticker, just let me know via comment or PM or whatever. Then you can bookmark that page and get a fresh updated look each day. Delayed by 15mins but a pretty quick way to have a glance big picture look. I'll be adding new tickers as time goes on and eventually might have a good size index going.

Best to ya ski!

[ParkTwain]

The CMF indicator gives a potentially misleading plot for a day with a gap up/down. HSOA had a gap up with a big drop intraday. In this particular scenario, the CMF plot doesn't reflect any "credit" for the gap up, only for the intraday drop.

[spikefader]

The CMF indicator gives a potentially misleading plot for a day with a gap up/down. HSOA had a gap up with a big drop intraday. In this particular scenario, the CMF plot doesn't reflect any "credit" for the gap up, only for the intraday drop.

Yes, after-hour money flow isn't reflected in a daily chart. But I don't see that as misleading. It is what it is; a daily chart with CMF relative to opening and closing prices. And why should a daily CMF plot get 'credit' for after hours money anyway? Daily CMF is much ado with opening and closing values and the money flow inbetween isn't it? Anything time frame shorter than a full day is fairly reflected in intraday charts with all sessions and due weight can be given to that......if you follow that of course, which I don't. So I think daily charts properly reflect money flow relative to the daily and it's not misleading....just confusing lol

[ParkTwain]

Yeah, a money flow measure doesn't (can't) reflect a price gap up/down between sessions. It's not a matter of after-hours money flow, it's about the price gap AT THE OPENING OF A GIVEN SESSION and the bid/ask action that resulted in that gap. The bid/ask action pre-opening isn't "money flow" per se, but it did determine the opening price gap up that day. My bottom line: watch out for open price gaps up/down when reading a money flow plot.

A stock's price could gap up $10.00/sh at the open, then advance no more than $0.10/sh during that day. But the MF plot would only reflect the movement intraday, not the HUGE change in market demand for that stock that caused that day's gap up. So you can't use a MF plot simply as a gauge of momentum or strength, without also taking account of any gaps up/down that occurred between a session close and the next session's open during the time period that you're examining.

[spikefader]

You can't use a MF plot simply as a gauge of momentum or strength, without also taking account of any gaps up/down that occurred between a session close and the next session's open during the time period that you're examining.

'Taking account' of gaps in a chart relative to CMF might be harder than you think Park. I don't think I'd ever feel the need anyway. I've always attempted to look at the larger CMF picture to see whether it supports a bias or a certain trend or setup. CMF is just supportive evidence, not a leading indicator for me. I don't think anyone should attempt to trade it like a momo indicator....but one can use CMF to guage the existance and strength of the trend. And one can do it without reference to gaps and without trying to account for them.

Personally, I wouldn't zero in too hard on what CMF did on a gap day and try to guage momentum; that's not how I use it. I might look over a period of time to see what it's doing, and in that chart I posted you'll note my comments were general, i.e. "money flow not supportive of bulls as price descends" and I boxed a period of 2 1/2 months. For HSOA's gap up today, I've noted the near zero line 'reject', which I think is more significant than the gap up. The price action after the gap up is telling in itself, and explained by the profit-taking tag.

Anyway, I just re-read http://www.stockcharts.com/education...oneyFlow1.html and am reminded that CMF is calculated from the daily readings of the A/D line, and for the A/D line Chaikin ignores the change from one period to the next and focused on the price action for a given day/period.

I quote from that source: "The oscillator is unlike a momentum oscillator and is not influenced by the price change from day to day. Instead, the indicator focuses on the location of the close relative to the range for the period (daily or weekly). This is the strength of Chaikin Money Flow"

Now the author of that article comments about gaps and misleading potential of CMF if gaps occur, and he/she references the SBUX chart after the gap down , saying the "(SBUX) strong closes indicated accumulation and the heavy volume amplified this message to cause a large jump in the indicator. The strength was a bit misleading ... "

Well it wouldn't have been misleading if SBUX had rallied hard from that gap down and recovered fully. lol

But frankly, to any half smart chart reader, a gap down on volume like that is screaming sell signal and green CMF isn't going to change that. Might be good for a nimble dead-cat-bounce scalp.....but that SBUX chart the author speaks of shows the descending nature after the gap down, and a fuzzy C corrective above 13.00 that got sold hard and whent the price support of the gap down day failed, down she went along with the CMF to negative territory.

And the moral of the story is that price action relative to support/resistance and volume always trumps an oscillating indicator. Trend indicators and volatility indicators are a different story, for they themselves can identify true or perceived true points of support and resistance, for eg. bollinger bands. But back to oscillators, I can't for the life of me understand why they've become so stinkin' popular.....for they're so stinkin' unreliable.

The sooner one grasps the reality that price action, support, resistance, and volume far outweigh what an oscillating indicator predicts the sooner they'll reach trading enlightenment. The path to understanding the market is not through the use of oscillation indicators.

[skiracer]

Sure Ski. Here's the daily.

Profit-taking tag today produced gap n crap -18% from the open sheesh...Sorry man....I was rootin' fer ya and I actually didn't even watch this after the open.

So anyway, chart notes say most of it.

The latest stuff I'm publishing at my site deals with Bollinger Bands with settings of 100 and 2.5 (NOT with log scale) It's been something I have always looked at but I kept it close to the chest. Anyway I recommend people at least look at it and weigh up in assessing bias. Each charting program is slightly different, and the one I like most is http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javac...sp?symbol=hsoa and you want to press DETACH for a better look. Insert those 100 and 2.5 settings and turn log scale off and you'll see that the lower band for HSOA is at 3.00 and suggestive of falling with any increased volatility in price from today forward. I'm estimating the $2.00 or $1.80 price support might coincide with any selloff down to that lower band, which should be great support for a tradeable bounce. Daily close under the band produces Burnt Toast qualities. OK, there it is. The Burnt Toast secret is out. Don't burn the house down yall!

For anyone too lazy to setup those settings, feel free to visit my growing 'Chart Index' page and have a look around. Each ticker link takes you to preformatted charts with those settings on multi time frames, as well as psar trends with MFI, which I use to do some of the Creme of the Crop/ PSP filtering with. If yall want me to add a ticker, just let me know via comment or PM or whatever. Then you can bookmark that page and get a fresh updated look each day. Delayed by 15mins but a pretty quick way to have a glance big picture look. I'll be adding new tickers as time goes on and eventually might have a good size index going.

Best to ya ski!

Thanks for your take on it Spike. Very good call on taking the gains off the table at $6.93. I actually disagreed with it but in the end your call was the correct play for yesterday. I sold off at $6.60 area after giving back .33. Got back into to it again at $5.75 area. A decent gain of over a point on the position but still disappointing from what I was expecting after the report. Especially after the way it opened in the morning. Anyway it will be interesting to see what transpires today. Can't discount that report unless you're Doug. Thanks for taking a look at it.

[Lyehopper]

trading....

Rockin'Rob.... JAH (long) please!

Would be very nice to see a substainable rally, wouldn't it fellas?

[IIC]

Put me in DAKT long...IIC

[Rob]

Week 33 (7), Day 3

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Please read the latest stocklemon report on HSOA 8/15/06 . I think you're
playing with fire on this one and hope you can get out before it's too late.

-----------billyjoe

[spikefader]

Ski,
Please read the latest stocklemon report on HSOA 8/15/06 . I think you're
playing with fire on this one and hope you can get out before it's too late.

-----------billyjoe

Heads up!

[skiracer]

Heads up!

Definitely a channel short signal and could go lower from here. But there also could be another pattern forming there in a symetrical triangle. It just amazes me that with that report there is this selloff.
Billyjoe, I just don't buy that Stocklemon stuff. You and Doug can beleive it and you may just be right. Thanks for your concern about my well being. It's a nice thought but I'll be alright regardless of how this play turns out. What bothers me is that an outfit like Stocklemon can write any kind of a report they want about a stock regardless whether it is the truth or not. They certainly can make it look like what they are stating is correct but all they have shown is their slant on it and it is definitely written to their slant. But if you guys are right about this stock then please say, "I told you so". I can live with that and being wrong about the play. It won't be the first or last time I'm sure.



Here's something else I find interesting. Institutional ownership has been increasing by about 15% over the last 3/4 weeks. Just something to think about. Ownership Activity
Description# of HoldersSharesTotal Positions5511,704,557New Positions365,735,650Soldout Positions9-1,219,631Net Position Change263,919,905Buyers446,320,960Sellers18-2,401,055

[IIC]

Definitely a channel short signal and could go lower from here. But there also could be another pattern forming there in a symetrical triangle. It just amazes me that with that report there is this selloff.
Billyjoe, I just don't buy that Stocklemon stuff. You and Doug can beleive it and you may just be right. Thanks for your concern about my well being. It's a nice thought but I'll be alright regardless of how this play turns out. What bothers me is that an outfit like Stocklemon can write any kind of a report they want about a stock regardless whether it is the truth or not. They certainly can make it look like what they are stating is correct but all they have shown is their slant on it and it is definitely written to their slant. But if you guys are right about this stock then please say, "I told you so". I can live with that and being wrong about the play. It won't be the first or last time I'm sure.

I don't need to say I told you so...We can all make our own decisions.

I also do not believe that Stocklemon is a bunch of short pump and dumpers. I don't personally know anyone affiliated with Stocklemon...But I find it odd that some of the stuff they posted was almost identical to stuff I had heard elsewhere already.

If they were truly a P & D operation then I think they would already been shut down. But then again the wheels of justice turn slow sometimes...Doug