ARLP - The Super Bowl Winner

[spikefader]

Today's thoughts:

[New-born baby]

Technicals

Spike,

See why my fear? I'm not skilled enough at technical analysis. If I look at your chart, I see a double top, with the prospect of a double bottom should ARLP drop on Monday.

ARLP dropped on fears of OPEC (which meets on Feb 2) increasing production. FDG, BTU and other coal stocks all took a shot on Friday.

Thank you for the picture. And where's our poll for next week's market direction?

[df21084]

OPEC and ARLP

Spike,

ARLP dropped on fears of OPEC (which meets on Feb 2) increasing production. FDG, BTU and other coal stocks all took a shot on Friday.

BPT took a 2% hit on Friday, after I sold it. I thought OPEC was meeting this weekend. I want to wait to see what OPEC decides before buying ARLP.

However, I really see demand for coal going up regardless.

[spikefader]

Spike,
See why my fear? I'm not skilled enough at technical analysis. If I look at your chart, I see a double top, with the prospect of ..

OK, yes, I absolutely see why you fear. Bad news with a drop rises fear levels in people. That's 'normal' and 'common'. But consider the elephant and bird analogy I've written below.

ARLP: At every point along that lower pink line, image how you would have felt when price was at each and every one of those points on the line. Pretty obvious that fear levels in any normal/average person would have been pretty high to extreme, depending on your emotional psyche. And fair enough - that's just how we humans seem to operate. Is it the 'right way' to feel?

No...........and no exceptions no. But why no? Simple: because buying into weakness is an edge. Why is it an edge? Because there are times one MUST do the opposite of what "the herd" does. The early bird catches the worm is a good analogy. OK, the herd is stampeding, and it feels like it's insane to turn and try to run against it. Yep, no question that timing is the important thing if you're gonna live when you try to turn against a herd of stampeding elephants. So how do you time it right? Simple: At support. But what if you time it wrong or misjudge the support, or even if you judge it right it fails anyway? What then smart guy?? Huh? Huh?!! Simple: close the trade before you get slammed and killed by that huge running elephant that's almost upon you. Simply turn around and go along with the herd again until the next great timing position...the next significant support. Then try the same thing again. Eventually you will nail the turn and become the early bird. See, if one never ever tries to be the early bird, on will never ever get the best worm. The opportunity is forever going to be there to be an early bird, but because of stupid fear ya don't take it. We all struggle with this, so it's nothing personal. So yes, sometimes it's the wisest thing to do what the herd does - self preservation and all that....such as when there's a stampeding elephant coming at you. But other times it's the wisest thing on the planet to draw a line in the sand and say "this makes sense despite how I feel", and further, "but if I'm proven wrong I'm going to fix it before it gets out of control".

It's so stinkin' hard to get to this point as far as trading a stock goes. So easy to rationalize, but so hard to actually do. It's all about mind over matter. The fear IS real. It's not exaggerated because you have some mental illness . And when it's so real, it's so hard to make yourself act in the face of it. But that's what it takes. Taking action in the face of your emotions. Eventually it gets easier because you see that it actually works and you become more comfortable with it.

Anyway, these are my own personal sincere thoughts and it's ok to disagree with them. I welcome that. If the shoe fits, then wear it. If it doesn't then don't try to put in on Just make sure you're smart enough to know the size of the shoe before you even try to put it on And even more important is to be smart enough to know that you need a new pair of shoes

Best to all.

[New-born baby]

Paper Trading

Spike,

Thank you for the "herd" advice. I paper trade a lot of stocks, and about 90% of the time I am in good shape . . . but paper and real cash are two diffo things. That's why I like the Cans: mistakes don't cost you in the long term. Thanks again.

I like MDC. Some have this targeted at 100.

[billyjoe]

Going back to last May 21, everytime ARLP has hit the 50dma it's bounced back. That's at least 10 times in a row. Will it make it 11 in a row? My guess is yes, but I'm just basing this on past performance. They say previous random occurances don't effect future outcome, but I say it wasn't by chance that ARLP keeps coming back.
billyjoe

[bec1nj]

Psychology and money

Nice description, spikefader. Now you all know why I really believe in the relationship between financial matters and psychology!
Dr. Bruce

[canaveraldan]

ARLP looks like it may be getting ready to breakout. The price has converged at $72 and volumn is steady. Any comments?

[Jaws57]

ARLP looks like it may be getting ready to breakout. The price has converged at $72 and volumn is steady. Any comments?

Looks like it has the triangle thing going here plus the bollinger bands are pretty narrow. It has bounced yet again off the 50day. The last few strong volume days were all up. Looks like this thing will break to the upside, I'm counting on it.

Jaws57

[mrmarket]

Big move today...looks like we are on our way.

[mrmarket]

can't be stopped...on a rampage now. All the stars are lined up.

[mrmarket]

Getting close to my sell target. Who else got their dividend, by the way?

[jiesen]

Excellent! I got mine on 2/14. Counting the dividend, I'm up 12% so far. Only a couple bucks left to go on this one... we should be there tomorrow, or if not then, by next week for sure.

CMN is also making a run for the 15%. Who knows, it could even beat ARLP to it, if it makes another quick jump up.

[mooddude]

Excellent! I got mine on 2/14. Counting the dividend, I'm up 12% so far. Only a couple bucks left to go on this one... we should be there tomorrow, or if not then, by next week for sure.

CMN is also making a run for the 15%. Who knows, it could even beat ARLP to it, if it makes another quick jump up.

When was the dividend for ARLP? I got some K7 form with $0 profit on it. Perhaps because I bought and sold it really fast and they send out the forms to all former partners as well.

[jiesen]

When was the dividend for ARLP? I got some K7 form with $0 profit on it. Perhaps because I bought and sold it really fast and they send out the forms to all former partners as well.

maybe you did, but maybe you didn't (sell too fast)... I wish I had sold mine when I was running my mouth about being up 12%! oh well, it'll be back to 80 again, and then some.

like I said earlier, ARLP sent me a Valentine's gift of a 1% cash distribution which I received on 2/14/05. Haven't gotten any money from them since. ARLP, don't you love me anymore? C'mon show me the MONEY!