Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Sorry Runner

NB, thanks for your take on these. I passed on both. AMED once again popped up today. I traded this one a while ago for a decent gain. Might have popped out of a S/H/S formation today.

Runner,
Sorry that I don't have anything much to recommend these days. This Oct has been so bearish that, except for some shorts, and being long on some Cans, I have been on the sidelines. Speaking of shorts, remember that Dell Short I recommended to below $28. Ole Michael Dell took a shot to the jaw today with the stock losing more than $2. It has more downside yet.

[New-born baby]

Too volatile

New-born,
Finally stopped out of BMHC at 83.01 then it promptly goes up past 86 That's it for this stock. Too much volatility for me . Time to rebuild the portfolio with high quality. As the weather worsens there will be more time for research.

billyjoe

BMHC is too volatile. What I may look to do is buy BHMC and sell some covered calls that expire in a week to ten days. I'll let you know if I do.

Right now short Dell for a quick gain. Or buy FDG and sell a covered $35 NOV call the first up day you get (maybe tomorrow?). Short CNXS--she's going down to $22--. Or buy GooG. That'll get the portfolio running again.

[Runner]

Runner,
Well, I looked at the chart. Had a nice up day today. The trouble with bear markets is that up moves are not long sustained. They fail quickly . . . .
I suppose you know that the price target on SBUX is $39. That's quite a dip from $52.50.

SBUX should see some profit taking tomorrow (IMHO). I see she has resistance not too far away . . . you watch: she'll knock her head against resistance and make a nice short. Really.

I am sure that if you jumped in, you'd have stops close by in case things turned sour . . . .

I personally am not going to buy anything on Friday. Nasty week with the markets. I am going to do some research over the weekend and see what comes up. Too risky for me to buy now and research later.

Hey NB, what is your synopsis on SBUX? Could it hit the 39.00 target??

[ninner]

hey buddy, long time no talk....i need some advice on SWN...i think i see a ascending triangle forming and i believe the MACD indicators are confirming this..what are your thoughts????

[New-born baby]

Hey!

hey buddy, long time no talk....i need some advice on SWN...i think i see a ascending triangle forming and i believe the MACD indicators are confirming this..what are your thoughts????

Hey Ninner! Glad to hear from you. Hope you are prospering. Now let's look at SWN . . . . remember: click on the charts, then click again to enlarge.

I am giving you three charts: first the weekly . . . it shows no ascending triangle. It does show solid resistance at the $75.65 mark. You should look to exit any longs right there.


Here's a daily, and what I suppose your questioned addressed concerning an ascending triangle. I say, "no, it isn't there." Others may disagree. I base my charting off of the open/closing prices, and not the tails.


Lastly, here's my advice on SWN for right now. I really think a pullback is coming, but on the other hand, you are currently sitting on support. It held Friday, but I don't have much confidence that it is going to hold on the next hammer blow. I like the stock, and think that a long could work if you sold the calls.

[New-born baby]

How did you know?

Hey NB, what is your synopsis on SBUX? Could it hit the 39.00 target??

My synopsis on SBUX was that I was totally wrong about what she might do!
She didn't pull back; she rocketed higher! So how did you know that she would?

Now don't you think this is the end? Friday's action--it that going to make a classic blow off top?

[Runner]

My synopsis on SBUX was that I was totally wrong about what she might do!
She didn't pull back; she rocketed higher! So how did you know that she would?

Now don't you think this is the end? Friday's action--it that going to make a classic blow off top?

NB, I noticed some nice divergences in RSI back around the middle of September. Price was dropping but RSI was moving up. I also received entry signal on 9/29/05. This signal was confirmed and trend change also confirmed on 10/05. I agree that this last session seems ominous and a pullback very well may be in the cards. Now I will stalk this possible pullback and see how the price and volume play out.

[ninner]

yes newborn....those are the 2 arrows that i am calling an ascending triangle...from what i have read you can use the tails...the only negative i see is that resistance and the last 4 out of 5 weeks ..there seems to be distribution going on ...however, it is holding support...i wonder if SWN needs a catalyst to break that resistance level...maybe the split is what the doctor ordered or possibly cooler temperatures which are already hitting us as i type this

cheers bud

[New-born baby]

What split?

yes newborn....those are the 2 arrows that i am calling an ascending triangle...from what i have read you can use the tails...the only negative i see is that resistance and the last 4 out of 5 weeks ..there seems to be distribution going on ...however, it is holding support...i wonder if SWN needs a catalyst to break that resistance level...maybe the split is what the doctor ordered or possibly cooler temperatures which are already hitting us as i type this

cheers bud

Ninner,
Hey, what split? I haven't followed SWN closely. Why don't you give us the details. 2:1? When? etc.

Yes, I saw the 4/5 distribution weeks. I see the top at $75.65, and I looked at the calls. Seems to me to be an easy play for a few quick points. And imho, natural gas is the way to go.

I like the stock.

[Lyehopper]

Swn....

Hey New Born.... I'm guessing you are bearish on this stock. I'd truely love to read your marked up charts for more details but I can't seem to enlarge them my friend. Try posting them using the "Direct" link (last link)....

Here's a retracement I just ran and some comments on SWN.

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/107/swn114053eh.png

[ninner]

Hey Newborn...i got you pretty curious hey....hahaha!! SWN splits 2-1 Nov 17 ...as we get closer im wondering if that is the catalyst to get this stock over that resistance level that is what happaned to UPL right before it split...after being stuck in a trading range for almost 6 months....it seems like both the bulls and bears think fair value is around 70 as i see alot of support just below it...about where it is now....I think the MACD is supporting some accumulation...is it not???

cheers

[ninner]

I think u would be crazy to short at this time with winter coming up. Notice how volume (even though it is high) is slowly decreasing the last few days volume hasnt hit the 50 day average...i think the time to short was when it was above 80(when it was over valued. Another thing i have noticed is that it hasnt violated 38.2% mark which i find pretty interesting

cheers

[skiracer]

Ninner,
The daily is definitely suggesting an ascending triangle but it would be nicer if it were spaced out alittle further between the reaction points (where it touches the top and bottom lines). Still it doesn't mean that it is going to trend up for sure.
Actually on the weekly it's still operating on a channel short from a week or two ago and hasn't given a channel long again since the last channel short signal. I would agree with NBB that the short play is the better play right now.
There is somewhat of a conundrum here with the energy ETF (OIH) giving a channel long signal last week and rising so the two issues could be operating on different signals.

[ninner]

so you are saying it is trading still a the higher end of the "channel" around 61-62 (short you could make about 8-9 points) if it fell that far below the 50 day average then long where you only have like maybe 4 points to gain since it hasnt been able to break resistance yet.

[skiracer]

I was only stating what I saw in the charts. I thought that the daily leaned more towards the long side with the ascending triangle being a bullish indicator. When and how far it would break out if it does is pure conjecture an I couldn't forecast that or that it even will break above the horizontal line of the triangle.
The weekly is still operating on the channel short signal from a couple of weeks ago which is getting old but could still be a factor. The weekly hasn't given any bull or long signal yet but it has been tracking up steadily for quite some time. NewBorn likes to give those number forecasts about how far it will drop or rise but I don't do that. In all honesty I don't like the setup in either direction short or long so I wouldn't be trading it right now. Those other factors like a split, the winter being colder, etc.. don't generate much interest for me are purely speculative about how they will effect the trend over the short term.