Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Think about this Gold

NOshadylady,
Here's a thought that reinforces my view:

I just read a report that I think pretty well sums up the "why" of the

advance in gold prices.....
"...foreign dollar holders have discovered a way to diversify out of
dollars and into commodities, especially gold and silver. This does
not reflect inflation fears. Rather, it is asset diversification by
foreign holders of dollar denominated Treasuries....Furthermore, if
foreign central banks are at the root of this run-up in gold, then
expect it to continue for some time." Richard Lehmann.

Oh, yeah, I forgot to mention: the USA govt holds 75% of the gold in the world. I think these other nations want it back.

[noshadyldy]

NOshadylady,
Here's a thought that reinforces my view:

I just read a report that I think pretty well sums up the "why" of the

advance in gold prices.....
"...foreign dollar holders have discovered a way to diversify out of
dollars and into commodities, especially gold and silver. This does
not reflect inflation fears. Rather, it is asset diversification by
foreign holders of dollar denominated Treasuries....Furthermore, if
foreign central banks are at the root of this run-up in gold, then
expect it to continue for some time." Richard Lehmann.

Oh, yeah, I forgot to mention: the USA govt holds 75% of the gold in the world. I think these other nations want it back.

Thanks NB. That's interesting about the 75% too. I was under the impression that the US sold off alot of its gold reserves to other nations , making us all the more vulverable to the upcoming economic troubles. I would love to keep waving the flag proudly repeating "we're number one", but I too think we are in for a humbling whoopin'.
So anyway, please sir.... should we be stuffin the mattresses with gold or gold stocks?

[New-born baby]

It's the real thing.

Thanks NB. That's interesting about the 75% too. I was under the impression that the US sold off alot of its gold reserves to other nations , making us all the more vulverable to the upcoming economic troubles. I would love to keep waving the flag proudly repeating "we're number one", but I too think we are in for a humbling whoopin'.
So anyway, please sir.... should we be stuffin the mattresses with gold or gold stocks?

Again, I say, the real thing: GOLD. It's gold that is headed to $3,000 per ounce, not a gold stock.

Example: crude is selling for $67.60 per barrell. That's near all-time highs ($70). Some oil companies are making big profits (XOM), and some companies are squandering away the opportunity and are in serious trouble (ENT). Owning oil stocks are no guarantee of profits--one bomb, one whacko Muslim, or one dumb mistake by one ham-handed employee could do serious damage to the price of the stock. But if you owned the commodity itself--when the price rises, you could sell for a profit. The same is true of gold.

[New-born baby]

Gold Reserves

The US govt controls about 75% of the world's gold reserves. What happened that the USA got control of so much gold was WWII. England, France, USSR, and the European countries had their industries destroyed or captured by the Nazis. They needed weapons, we had the factories, so they bought from us. We insisted that they pay in gold. We got the gold. After the war, the USA guaranteed that $35 USD could be redeemed at any time for one ounce of gold. Then in 1964 Johnson got us involved in Viet Nam, and at the very same time instituted his "Great Society" welfare programs. It was "guns and butter" at the same time (re: deficit spending). The result of this deficit spending was inflation. Seizing an opportunity to hurt the USA, our dear friends, the French, decided it was the time to bust the US Central Bank, and they started making a run on gold. They accumulated as many US dollars as they could get, and began claiming gold at the tune of 1 ounce per $35 US. President Nixon, seeing that he could not stop the spending of the govt, (Democratic controlled House and Senate), and did not want to bankrupt the nation of its gold, suspended the payment of gold for US dollars (1971). It was at this very moment that US dollars became fiat money, and the US essentially defaulted on all of its foreign debt. Fiat money is simply pieces of paper that the govt says is "money" and has value. But it will only have value as long as someone will render goods and services in exchange for it. And once people decide that they do not want your pieces of paper, you will not be able to get anything for it.

Question: how many of you would truly want to be paid in Mexican Pesos? How about the Russian Ruble? Or some other weak foreign currency? Remember, if you have a Peso, sooner or later the money HAS to be spent in Mexico to buy goods and services there. And if that country stops producing something that you want, would you be willing to take their money?

When is the last time you bought a product of Afghanistan? (not counting you heroin addicts)? Remember, if you take their money, you have to spend it there for goods and services. What in Afghanistan do you want? Cars? Not made there. Microwaves? Decent lumber? Appliances? No, No, No, No.

And that could happen to the good old USA. Right now all the world HAS to use USD to buy OIL. Oil is sold only in dollar denominated amounts. Every nation has to keep a large supply of USD on hand to facilitate the acquistion of oil for their nation. In times past, nations were happy to do this because they could exchange their oil money for goods and services that the US produced. We were the Number One economy, the number one manufacturer, and the technological leader of the world. But by continued deficit spending, inflation has caused manufacturing to leave the US because of high costs. Labor, taxes, and especially, medical costs, have driven corporations either out of the US, or out of business. And yet Americans think free stuff and a high standard of living is their right. But if we do not make anything here, how will those people spend their money here? And if our schools, (who have dumbed down our students so that they can't make change for a $20 bill without a calculator), cannot teach multiplication and division, who will buy our technology? In other words, we will have nothing left to sell. We will be a 3rd or 4th or 5th rate nation.

Therefore, the enemy of the nation is deficit spending, welfare, "free healthcare," "Free education," and anything and everything that destroys the work ethic of the nation.

[Peter Hansen]

new Born ANSR Looks Good

New Born ......I like the ANSR chart ..beautiful upward angle . Check it out ya may like it .......thanx pete !

[DSteckler]

<< Right now all the world HAS to use USD to buy OIL. Oil is sold only in dollar denominated amounts. >>

Any day now the Iranian oil bourse is scheduled to open and it will accept payment in euros, not dollars. And don't forget, Iraq took payments in euros until Sadaam was overthrown.

[New-born baby]

On hold

Any day now the Iranian oil bourse is scheduled to open and it will accept payment in euros, not dollars. And don't forget, Iraq took payments in euros until Sadaam was overthrown.

Dave,
1. The Iranian Bourse was supposed to open MAR 20, but has been put on hold for now.
2. Saddam, and his euro trading--do you know how long it was before we overthrew him? Some speculate that this was the real reason behind the war. I am inclined to believe it was at least another reason for the war.

[New-born baby]

Ansr

New Born ......I like the ANSR chart ..beautiful upward angle . Check it out ya may like it .......thanx pete !

Pete--
You know how to find them. How do you do it? Please share your secret with us who dwell in the darkness.

ANSR--$12.75 target--on a $6.50 stock. How's that for upside?
Weekly shows cup with formation of a flying handle. I expect a pullback to $6 perhaps, perhaps not, before she runs higher. Volume has pushed this one higher, too. Looks healthy I really think she pulls back a little, probably Monday around 10:30 EST, before she jumps higher again. The RSI and ULT show that this baby has been hot. Of course, she might not, too.

[New-born baby]

Chart Lesson of the Week: Descending Triangles

Time for school again. I want to post a pattern each week to help us either learn or review important charting patterns. Charts work--most of the time--and its an art and skill that will help you with your entry and exits. Why not save yourself some stress and financial pain? Makes cents to me.

This week's subject is descending triangles. If you read the article below, and note the starred statement (***), I would think that you would start looking for these formations and trade them with boldness. Shorting is an option; but a safer play is to use bearish calls or puts spreads. More on these on another post later

Descending Triangle is a decline to a new low on news followed by a kick back rally to an intermediate resistance level, a second decline to test the recent low followed by a second rally toward but not through intermediate resistance and finally a decline to fresh new lows on strong volume.

The technical target for a descending triangle is derived by measuring the vertical height of the triangle and applying this length to the new breakout level.

***Descending triangles are among the most reliable of all technical patterns because both supply and demand are easily defined. ****
The defining characteristic of descending right angle triangles is the pattern of declining highs and a series of equal lows. This combination of points can be connected to form a right angle triangle. If a stock violates any part of the triangle during its formation the pattern it should be considered void and trading positions should be abandoned.
Triangles are about indecision and as such volume should slow noticeably as the pattern is being constructed. It is most important that volume surge as the stock declines through the reaction low. This tells the technical trader that demand has been absorbed and the next leg of the bear phase is about to begin.
Downside breakouts often lead to small 2-3% declines followed by an immediate test of the breakout level. If the stock closes above this level (now resistance) for any reason the pattern becomes invalid.

Swingtrades.com

[spikefader]

Nice to see you adding the chart lessons NB! That last one inspires me to find a descending triangle for POTW Keep up the great work.

[noshadyldy]

[QUOTE=New-born baby]Again, I say, the real thing: GOLD. It's gold that is headed to $3,000 per ounce, not a gold stock.




Thanks NB. People refer to buying gold and oil all the time on these boards and they are actually referring to the stocks so I just wanted to be clear.
Regarding buying the actual gold, I always seem to resist that. Not much fun. But I'm reconsidering. The part of 'me' that gets me in the most trouble with my trading is my impulsivity. That really would not be a factor with a box of actual gold. I can see where I would benefit from that type of investment. Not unlike real estate which has been a mainstay investment throughout my family. I had a grammy (my polish grammy whom I sometimes quote as saying "tufshitsky")who came through Ellis Island back in the very early 1900's at age 19. She set up a boarding house and was buying up real estate by the time she was in her 40's. Tough gal. (made her own moonshine, too) Died at 102, still proud and dignified in a quiet way. sigh...

anyway, thanks again.

[Runner]

PCAR has a descending look about it on the monthly, weekly what ya think NB? May not be ready yet… If the bottom line is cracked this may very well be a 45.00 stock.

[skiracer]

The US govt controls about 75% of the world's gold reserves. What happened that the USA got control of so much gold was WWII. England, France, USSR, and the European countries had their industries destroyed or captured by the Nazis. They needed weapons, we had the factories, so they bought from us. We insisted that they pay in gold. We got the gold. After the war, the USA guaranteed that $35 USD could be redeemed at any time for one ounce of gold. Then in 1964 Johnson got us involved in Viet Nam, and at the very same time instituted his "Great Society" welfare programs. It was "guns and butter" at the same time (re: deficit spending). The result of this deficit spending was inflation. Seizing an opportunity to hurt the USA, our dear friends, the French, decided it was the time to bust the US Central Bank, and they started making a run on gold. They accumulated as many US dollars as they could get, and began claiming gold at the tune of 1 ounce per $35 US. President Nixon, seeing that he could not stop the spending of the govt, (Democratic controlled House and Senate), and did not want to bankrupt the nation of its gold, suspended the payment of gold for US dollars (1971). It was at this very moment that US dollars became fiat money, and the US essentially defaulted on all of its foreign debt. Fiat money is simply pieces of paper that the govt says is "money" and has value. But it will only have value as long as someone will render goods and services in exchange for it. And once people decide that they do not want your pieces of paper, you will not be able to get anything for it.

Question: how many of you would truly want to be paid in Mexican Pesos? How about the Russian Ruble? Or some other weak foreign currency? Remember, if you have a Peso, sooner or later the money HAS to be spent in Mexico to buy goods and services there. And if that country stops producing something that you want, would you be willing to take their money?

When is the last time you bought a product of Afghanistan? (not counting you heroin addicts)? Remember, if you take their money, you have to spend it there for goods and services. What in Afghanistan do you want? Cars? Not made there. Microwaves? Decent lumber? Appliances? No, No, No, No.

And that could happen to the good old USA. Right now all the world HAS to use USD to buy OIL. Oil is sold only in dollar denominated amounts. Every nation has to keep a large supply of USD on hand to facilitate the acquistion of oil for their nation. In times past, nations were happy to do this because they could exchange their oil money for goods and services that the US produced. We were the Number One economy, the number one manufacturer, and the technological leader of the world. But by continued deficit spending, inflation has caused manufacturing to leave the US because of high costs. Labor, taxes, and especially, medical costs, have driven corporations either out of the US, or out of business. And yet Americans think free stuff and a high standard of living is their right. But if we do not make anything here, how will those people spend their money here? And if our schools, (who have dumbed down our students so that they can't make change for a $20 bill without a calculator), cannot teach multiplication and division, who will buy our technology? In other words, we will have nothing left to sell. We will be a 3rd or 4th or 5th rate nation.

Therefore, the enemy of the nation is deficit spending, welfare, "free healthcare," "Free education," and anything and everything that destroys the work ethic of the nation.

I agree with a few of the points that you make, especially with regard to the entitlement programs where we don't get back any bang for our buck. Free education through the college level can only lead to a positive outcome as it raises the educational level of some ethnic and racial groups. More smarts equals a better environment all around for everyone.
Do you really believe the USA will fall in world ranking to a 2nd rate nation or worse yet a 3rd or 4th class nation. The world economy goes as the USA goes. You can accept that or not but our consumption of products, regardless of where they are manufactured, is what is driving most 2nd and 3rd world economies right now. Without out producing goods and services that we are outsourcing to these nations they wouldn't have what little they have right now.
They can do what they want with the way oil gets bought and paid for an it might have some detrimental short term effect on the USA but as things smooth out it will all come back to who we do business with, to whom we outsource the manufacturing of goods we consume, and who we do the most business with as our economic partners. If we stop or slow down so will everyone else much more to their detriement than ours.
2nd and 3rd world countries are just now starting to elevate their standards of living because of the high cost of labor everywhere. By sending the manufacturing of basic goods and services to these countries it will become a greater positive developement for everyone over time. Their pockets will become fatter an hopefully our realization of curbing our consumption, giving real thought to our siutuation regarding our spending on entitlement programs that we get nothing back for, an a better regard for how we have to interact in the international economic community, will help change our thoughts about ourselves.
Who would you suggest to step up to take our place as numero uno if we are going the route you speak of going. Any of the European community? Japan relies more heavily on imports to drive their economy than we do. China or any of the other Asian countries. China is doing as well as they are doing because we have sent all of our scrap steel there for manufacturing our goods and helping them economically in doing so. What would happen it we stopped that. China is having it's own problems dealing with the exploding economic growth and their own fiscal policy. Another point is that if other countries start dumping US dollars driving the cost of them down wouldn't that be a bargain to anyone looking to accumulate them? Another point is that are we as the most dominant nation economically and militarily going to let ourselves just go down the drain. We have a safeguard in that we vote to change course every 4 years. The mistakes of the past can be rectified in voting in a new administration more in line with the international community.
Change for the better is always a crap shoot. I have to remain positive about our chances into the future. The rest of the international community needs and depends on us when the chips are down. There is no one else ready an able to step up to the task or the challenge.
Gold at $3000. I bought the gold ETF (GLD) last year at $46 when gold was selling at $460 range. Still holding an up close to 100 points. Looking for $600 by years end, which now seems feasible, but $3000. I would be interested in your explaining what forces an events would have to take place or you see taking place now for that to happen. I just don't see it happening unless there is a complete economic collaspe worldwide an I don't see that going down. The emergence of the 3rd world nations coming into the internationas economic community will provide alot of new business worldwide. The problem is with the nations who are already there at that level to adjust their standards accordingly as new and cheaper labor worldwide becomes available while the USA and other advanced economies have to be adjusted down somewhat because of these new forces coming into play.
Like in the animal kingdom it's going to be evolution at it's finest. Only the strongest and most adaptable are going to persevere and survive. The USA is clearly the best at that and we prove it time and time again everytime it comes up.

[New-born baby]

Ski

SKi,
Probably the greatest difference of opinion between my post and your reply swings on this thought: I believe (and fear) that the time will come when the rest of the world will not want US dollars like they do now. If I read your post correctly, you don't think that will happen. I will base my response to you on this assumption. (Correct me if I am wrong).

To respond to you I would simply point to the last world superpower whose government programs and whose loss of manufacturing brought them to a 2 or 3rd rate power: Great Britain. It was England who dominated the world--"The sun never sets on the British Empire"--and its money was the coveted currency of the entire world. But by means of their liberal social policies and deficit spending, (which resulted in their loss of manufacturing capability)--"England became a nation of shop keepers"--that resulted in their now far diminished importance. And the catalyst that brought it about?

Two World Wars.

Something like that can happen here--if it has not already happened. Let's see--we are fighting two wars at once, looking to open up another one in Iran; manufacturing almost all gone; number one growing job segment is--buckle your seat belts--retail. "A nation of shopkeepers.' My point: there is danger here of repeating the mistakes of the past.

If you are correct I'll rejoice in it because I have children that will probably outlive me. And I want them to live in a good place

You are a good man, Ski. And a good American, too. I hope you are correct And don't get me wrong: I would have fought WWI and WWII, if I were British; and I would have fought in Afghanistan and Iraq and Iran if I were President. Just because those events were foisted upon Britian and now the US doesn't mean that we should not have fought in those wars; it simply means that deficit spending destroys a nation's power when a war comes upon it.

As for leadership change through voting, I have to disagree with you. You see, once a person thinks welfare is his right, and he raises his children with that idea, then it becomes impossible to change leadership by voting welfare out. No. The only way change comes then is by dictatorship. The history of the world is that representative republics last about 200 years. They all die the same kind of death: bankruptcy. Then the dictator comes in.

[New-born baby]

Pcar

PCAR has a descending look about it on the monthly, weekly what ya think NB? May not be ready yet… If the bottom line is cracked this may very well be a 45.00 stock.

Runner,
Love your eagle eyes! Of course, the daily looks best, and it isn't quite ripe, but one to put on your stalk list. If it breaks that $68 lower trend line, then PCAR looks set to drop nicely for us. Thanks for posting!

3 charts to follow:
Not convinced that this is a descending triangle on monthly:


Weekly has a very shallow drop of upper trend line:


Daily has best picture, but remember: PCAR has to bust lower trend line to make it a true descending triangle.