Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Swn

hey NB....u are an expert on options i bought some today at 4 bucks.....what do u think of that strategy.


cheers

Ninner,
ALLways glad to hear from you. I hope you are prospering in every way.
So you spent $400 to buy the AUG $30 PUT. Okay, so then let's look at SWN:

1. You've got a natural gas company here. NG is looking weak right now due to last year's mild winter, and the resulting oversupply on hand. So we are looking FUNDAMENTALLY at a weak commodity.

2. Looking at the chart, SWN has a pretty bearish look to it. PnF says she headed to the $18 mark, but warns us that SWN may not fall that far with a low pole reversal on 14 JUN 2006.

3. Here's the "weakly" chart: man, $18 looks very possible. Descending triangle breakdown and 10 week just moving under the 50 week avg.

Summary: I like your trade. You bought in the money--always smart, imho--the timing looks very good (last Thursday would have been better for a cheaper option, but still looks good); the commodity is weak--I have read where T. Boone Pickens sees $5 NG coming this winter. I like this trade. Best wishes with it

[ninner]

thanks NB

i always like your analysis....actually i bought 10 contracts ...so 4 Grand......you are right thursday would have been better but i think the risk reward is still good....i like the fact that it has tried to regain the 20 day twice with no success ..this should prove to be resistance.

all the best

[New-born baby]

Swn Jumps Up--short Her Down

Ninner,
ALLways glad to hear from you. I hope you are prospering in every way.
So you spent $400 to buy the AUG $30 PUT. Okay, so then let's look at SWN:

1. You've got a natural gas company here. NG is looking weak right now due to last year's mild winter, and the resulting oversupply on hand. So we are looking FUNDAMENTALLY at a weak commodity.

2. Looking at the chart, SWN has a pretty bearish look to it. PnF says she headed to the $18 mark, but warns us that SWN may not fall that far with a low pole reversal on 14 JUN 2006.

3. Here's the "weakly" chart: man, $18 looks very possible. Descending triangle breakdown and 10 week just moving under the 50 week avg.

Summary: I like your trade. You bought in the money--always smart, imho--the timing looks very good (last Thursday would have been better for a cheaper option, but still looks good); the commodity is weak--I have read where T. Boone Pickens sees $5 NG coming this winter. I like this trade. Best wishes with it

SWN jumped up $2.83 this morning. I can find no news, except THAT JIM CRAMER RECOMMENDED THIS STOCK LAST NIGHT. My view: short this dog down. Cramer is excellent, isn't he?

[rrrhumba]

NG valuations

SW jump in price could have something to do with Anadarko's buyout of two companies this a.m. at 40-50% premium over market. They are in the business and must think some companies are undervalued. Sometimes even what Cramer says makes sense (rare occassion)
rrrhumba

[New-born baby]

Thank you

SW jump in price could have something to do with Anadarko's buyout of two companies this a.m. at 40-50% premium over market. They are in the business and must think some companies are undervalued. Sometimes even what Cramer says makes sense (rare occassion)
rrrhumba

Thank you for the info. That is still news driven, emotional move. Worth watching . . . .

What picks have you got to share with us these days?

[rrrhumba]

Current Picks???

NBB,
Actually, I'm not picking much these days. I'm sitting heavily in CanRoys for the income (CNE, HTE, PMT and COS). My one current bet is that CI has just had a double bottom and will hopefully get a bounce. Its one of the beaten down insurers. I'm getting rid of a couple of odds and ends as I'm planning to be out of the country for 3 weeks and am not sure I'll be able to follow things too closely.
rrrhumba

[New-born baby]

NBB,
Actually, I'm not picking much these days. I'm sitting heavily in CanRoys for the income (CNE, HTE, PMT and COS). My one current bet is that CI has just had a double bottom and will hopefully get a bounce. Its one of the beaten down insurers. I'm getting rid of a couple of odds and ends as I'm planning to be out of the country for 3 weeks and am not sure I'll be able to follow things too closely.
rrrhumba

CI shows some promise if she can rise past $95.

[New-born baby]

Not everybody agrees

Not everybody agrees that oil consumption is going to rise forever.

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WMP/WWMPG629/

Here's a cut from the page:

[Lyehopper]

Not everybody agrees that oil consumption is going to rise forever.

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WMP/WWMPG629/

Great infomercial NBB.... I wonder what the truckers and farmers in Sweden will burn in their Simi's and Farm Tractors? Maybe if Europe can hurry up and stop using petroleum products my diesel fuel costs will fall.

[New-born baby]

Infomercial

Great infomercial NBB.... I wonder what the truckers and farmers in Sweden will burn in their Simi's and Farm Tractors? Maybe if Europe can hurry up and stop using petroleum products my diesel fuel costs will fall.

We could make diesel out of coal, and it doesn't smell bad or pollute like diesel made out of crude. Of course diesel is a by product of the production of gasoline.

[New-born baby]

Texas Tea chart

Here's the chart I am watching very, very closely. It is the West Texas Intermediate (sweet) crude oil chart. This thing, I think, will set the direction of the market.

[Peter Hansen]

NB HW One for the Gipper !

NB If ya like companies that convert coal to oil........you have to love HW.....check it out !

[New-born baby]

Hw

NB If ya like companies that convert coal to oil........you have to love HW.....check it out !

Pete:
HW chart does not yet say "bottom" to me. Horrendous fall from $40 to $25, and PnF is very pessimistic: $9 target But I'll be watching . . . .

[New-born baby]

Su

SU looking very bullish again.

[New-born baby]

Aci

I bought ACI at $39.90 and $39.66 on Wednesday. Here's the bullish double bottom breakout that signals a $46 target, minimum. (Pnf likes it to $51).