Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

that its still on trend however, picture is worth a thousand words....the stochastics i believe are heading to the oversold area and it hasnt been there since its run(weekly)....and with proof that its growth is slowing it may get a bounce tomorrow im betting that it will be a weak one.

cheers

Ninner,
It may be like MFLX. That dog just continued to slice through support as if it wasn't even there. Or it may bounce. Last week for POTW I shorted a dog and it turned arounded and bit me. But a huge fall like this, from $45 to $30, well, it ought not to bounce much at all. We will know much more tomorrow: if HANS cannot hold $30, that goose is completely cooked. She'll be below trend, below the 200 day, the 200 week, she'll be solidly in bear territory.

The PnF chart called this one on 3 August--last Thursday.

[skiracer]

i have been waiting for it to break as well buddy....i have made money long the past 2 years with hans.....was going to go short earlier, however the stock usually does well when earnings are announced so i thought i would hold off but i couldnt hold off today when it fell....i also see 12-15 as well just based on pe contraction and that is what all these high fliers are going through.....im just wondering what will happan tomorrow after the feds decision is made...to me it shouldnt matter inflation is here regardless and will probably get worse


thanks

Ninner

[New-born baby]

Ski

Hi, Ski;
How do I arrive at $15? Dow Theory says that the initial bear pole is only one half of the complete fall. Today she fell from $45-30=$15 bear pole. So $15 X 2= $30 from $45 = $15 target.

[ninner]

mine is purely based on stock market theory

based on the fact that inflation is here and i believe will only get worse and historically speaking when inflation is rising pe's tend to contract based on the y curve effect. No matter what u hear...Pe are historically high by regular standards excluding that anamoly of the tech boom..which was unusally high. Now, how i get my number well i think its safe to say HANS is still growing well however, i think everyone can agree its slowing...with stocks priced to perfection that kills them. This is where it my number could be debated. i think a company with slowing growth pe could contract in half from where it is....so in a range of 20-24 or so which would give u a target price based on 2005 earning of around 12-15. A good book to read on stock market theory is Unexpected returns....understanding secular market cycles by Ed easterling..its a very dry read but some good info in there.

[ninner]

Also, there is a theory thaat

Gaps need to filled and are filled in time........now your chart doesnt show it skiracer, however, there is a big gap between 14-17 which was never filled...that gap imo has to be filled and with those excessive splits marking a top together with slowing growth that is another validation of my target. That is what i have convinced myself anyways LOL....however like always i wont fight the trend and if it shows strength tomorrow i will cover.


cheers

[New-born baby]

Ski

Ski,
The only thing that bothers me about that bear pole is that it is really the first time HANS has lost momo on the weekly. Sometimes when that happens the stock recovers, makes a head, and then finally winds up making a head and shoulders pattern. On the other hand, HANS falling $15 in one day, well, that's a significant loss of momo, imho. And to lose $15 on 46 million shares traded, that shows that the pressure was pretty strong. Like I said, we should know more today. The bounce needs to be $5-$10 to convince me that it will make a head and shoulders on the weekly (the daily already shows a head, left shoulder, and an aborted right shoulder).

Last time I had checked HANS they had no option chain. But they have one now. I wouldn't be afraid to trade this one.

[New-born baby]

Amln

AMLN looking like she's going to drop down to $39 minus here soon. On the chart below, you'll note first the previous chart formation that called for a drop, the target, and it's successful completion of that target. AMLN recovered and has now again formed another bear pattern with the same $39 target. I think she breaks the neck and heads for home, myself. At least I am going to play AMLN short.

Here's the daily:

[New-born baby]

Why I Think Stld Digs A Hole

STLD is looking short to me. Yes, she needs to break the neck at $54. Yes, BEARnard is speaking today. Yes, STLD could fall and break the neck easily. Yes, Ninner and Jack Haddad are probably spot on when they say any bounce is going to be short lived. So here's my chart . . . yes, it is a weekly chart

[New-born baby]

Another look at HANS

I am going to be very interested in how HANS plays out in the days to come. Here's another chart at HANS weekly, and how HANS may fall into the $14s. It will take awhile, I think. Hey, this stock had the momo to the max. It just powered-out all at once. A couple of sputters and she was gone. Reminds me of a V-2 rocket. Sputters a couple of times and down she goes We shall see if HANS is completely out of gas just yet.

[New-born baby]

Ski

Something about HANS profits that you might consider: yes, they missed by $.01. But let me tell you what is happening in the grocery stores right now: pop and chip sales are way off. And I mean "way off." To me that tells me that the high gas prices have finally cut into discretionary spending, and pop and chips are discretionary spending. Those rats that jumped overboard yesterday could see the water coming into the ship. They aren't looking this quarter; they are looking the next two-three quarters. Time will tell. And hey, if you play it long now, there's lots of options to make it safe.

[spikefader]

I am going to be very interested in how HANS plays out in the days to come. .... Hey, this stock had the momo to the max. It just powered-out all at once. A couple of sputters and she was gone. Reminds me of a V-2 rocket. Sputters a couple of times and down she goes We shall see if HANS is completely out of gas just yet.

HANS was just another bubble that burst. Anyone taking this long should remember this rule: Never EVER underestimate a gap down on volume.

I think yesterday was a major blow technically. HANS may test band support at 22.70 in a V-2 jiffy. HANS is a no brainer short in my opinion.

At worst it's a pretty good bull:bear technical play with EFA long and HANS short. Big fat island reversal in this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HANS:EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93670315947

Have a great one folks. I'll read all about it later

[New-born baby]

More blood in the streets: PEIX

PEIX lost the momo, and yesterday suffered another loss of support. This one is ready to stumble right now. Looking for $7, unless Bill Gates can hold up the stock price all by himself.

[peanuts]

Something about HANS profits that you might consider: yes, they missed by $.01. But let me tell you what is happening in the grocery stores right now: pop and chip sales are way off. And I mean "way off." To me that tells me that the high gas prices have finally cut into discretionary spending, and pop and chips are discretionary spending. Those rats that jumped overboard yesterday could see the water coming into the ship. They aren't looking this quarter; they are looking the next two-three quarters. Time will tell. And hey, if you play it long now, there's lots of options to make it safe.

"pop" ??? Where are you from, NBB? I thought that there are only a few regions that say "pop" when speaking of soda. Pittsburgh is one of them.

[DSteckler]

How do you arrive at $7?

[New-born baby]

How do you arrive at $7?

PnF says that's where the support is

I'd be interested to hear your viewpoint.