Hot Pick Of The Day

[Runner]

Here are some industry groups I will be looking at next week.

Possible Shorts
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 12 stocks
Independent Oil & Gas 6 stocks
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 4 stocks

NB, I'll post the tic's later this weekend

[New-born baby]

Runner's excellent scans

Runner,
Excellent work! I love it. I love it!

I am not an Elliott Waver; I know you and Spike (and others) have the skill. What does Elliott say about the oil bottom?

[Runner]

NB here are a few I'll be looking at next week
Energy:
WHQ MRO OII OIS LUFK PBR GRP ALJ XTO PTEN CAM DRQ EAC UPL CLB FTI CRK UCO WLL EPEX DNR BJS

Metals & Mining:
SID ACI OS MDG CNX

[New-born baby]

NB here are a few I'll be looking at next week
Energy:
WHQ MRO OII OIS LUFK PBR GRP ALJ XTO PTEN CAM DRQ EAC UPL CLB FTI CRK UCO WLL EPEX DNR BJS

Metals & Mining:
SID ACI OS MDG CNX

Thanks for posting, Runner. Now post any setups you see. I'll look this list over; I've been looking at BTU (sister to ACI) also.

[spikefader]

Runner,
Excellent work! I love it. I love it!

I am not an Elliott Waver; I know you and Spike (and others) have the skill. What does Elliott say about the oil bottom?

You'll find my Sept 28 fuzzy count for the QM light crude miNY futures contract at: http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/09/28/oil-5/
It has since done the 'b' down as expected. The upcoming 'c' will be the pivotal point.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

------------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

New-born,
Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

------------billyjoe

BillyJoe,
Short AMLN under $42.78--she's awful weak. Support is $42.79, and right now trading at $42.82 or so.

ANN: nice day today. Hmmm. Double top. You see on Sept 20 it made a double top and failed to breakout higher. So I think you don't want Ann Taylor for your girlfriend unless she can bust up through the $44.33 marker. Right now the price is $42.60, and you've got decent support at $41.86 and $42.33. There is some resistance at $44.06. If you entered here you need to understand that $41.86 is a convenient exit if she moves lower, and $44.06 is a resistance as she moves higher. And a really strong bull move needs to bust $44.33 on volume. If that happens, Ann would really be looking strack--a $50 baby I like Ann better than BLUD, but BLUD is okay, too.

[New-born baby]

Blud

New-born,
Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

------------billyjoe

BLUD has a sort of a weekly cup, with volume dry up on the handle. The daily chart says you don't want to drop below $21.80 or else BLUD could blungeon you down to $20.50.

[Gwhiz]

If I could ask your advice New Born, what does the TA for sons look like, and gld.
Thank you

[Runner]

NB, here is an interesting article on position sizing. It is long but I think it drives home a good point.

http://www.turtletrader.com/position_sizing.pdf

[New-born baby]

SONS and GLD

If I could ask your advice New Born, what does the TA for sons look like, and gld.
Thank you

Gwhiz:
Let's see: SONS was once a $95 stock. Dot.com bust brought it down. The recent upswing in price has been met with "topping tails" i.e., bagholders jumping overboard, rejoicing that they got their money back. You didn't tell me whether or not you own it, so I will assume that you do not. SONS has a major support at $4.95. Look to enter there and put a stop around $4.90. Targets are (depending upon your style of trading) 1. $5.15 for a one or two day swing trade, 2. $5.50-$5.75 for a week long (+/-) hold, and 3. $7-$9.25 if SONS can bust the $6 marker on volume. Not going to happen the first time she touches it, though; too much overhead resistance. Anyway, that gives you a r/r of 4:1 for target one; target two is a r/r of 11:1 (16:1); target three is too good to calculate.

IF you do own SONS, I wouldn't hold it below $4.50. I don't know your entry price and therefore cannot knowledgeably advise you.


GLD:I am bearish on this one. Gold is directly related to the price of oil and/or the value of the dollar. The dollar is strengthening; oil is declining; therefore I see gold falling. The chart says it GLD will fall to $44 or $42 or even lower. Descending triangle is bearish and a much better short than a long. Too bad GLD doesn't have an option chain, because I'd be selling calls and buying puts. If you own this one, the broken neck comes at $56.66, and you'll be plenty sorry if you hold below that level. In short, get out


Best to ya. Thanks for asking!

[New-born baby]

NB, here is an interesting article on position sizing. It is long but I think it drives home a good point.
http://www.turtletrader.com/position_sizing.pdf

I urge all my readers to take the time to read this paper Runner has submitted. If you just read the first page you'll see this quote:
"Traders being
able to gain money over the long run were taking smaller positions
than losing and bankrupt traders were (p < .0001)." And this quote: "By receiving a
theoretical education, without any practical training, the risk for a
trader of going bankrupt when trading simulated stocks was
decreased to a tenth."

I just read about a guy who said he blew out a $150,000 account in two days on one trade. Lost all but $15,000 (that's a 90% loss!!).

Reason #1 that people lose money in the market: overconfidence. Evidence of overconfidence: overtrading.

Or how about this quote:
"However, there is evidence of
the importance of how assets are allocated. Asset allocation is even
more important than stock selection or timing. Brinson, Singer, and
Beebower (1991) found asset allocation policy to be of primary
importance, accounting for 91.5% of the differential return of the
pension funds."

[billyjoe]

I'm proud to say that since I've been a member my portfolio has become diversified , my position sizing is greatly improved , and my chances of being wiped out financially are almost nil. Thanks to Runner and others who keep repeating advice it's finally sunk in. Maybe I'm a slow learner and have to be told again and again before taking the hint. No more big losses here.

-----------------billyjoe

[peanuts]

I'm proud to say that since I've been a member my portfolio has become diversified , my position sizing is greatly improved , and my chances of being wiped out financially are almost nil. Thanks to Runner and others who keep repeating advice it's finally sunk in. Maybe I'm a slow learner and have to be told again and again before taking the hint. No more big losses here.

-----------------billyjoe

I saw a quote once, and I can't remember where, nor the exact wording of the phrase, but it went something like this: "The less you risk, the more you stand to lose when your analysis is right"

[New-born baby]

I saw a quote once, and I can't remember where, nor the exact wording of the phrase, but it went something like this: "The less you risk, the more you stand to lose when your analysis is right"

Yes, Peanuts. I respect your opinion. But you also have more to lose when your analysis is wrong. The scientific evidence, if you read Runner's posted article, is that position sizing is the 91.5% of the difference between the big winning funds and the losing funds. Much more effective than correct analysis. You are young yet. Have you ever lost $135,000 in a trade yet?
Well, I haven't either But I have lost a lot more than I should have because I was too dumb to use stops.