Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Runner

Love those steel sector charts. Not sure why the run up, but sure enough, we've got a runup

[Lyehopper]

Steel is on fire. How? I don't know. Everybody says the economy is slowing, but steel isn't.

Peanuts has an interesting perspective on steel. He's bullish because he sees consolidation in the industry as the big boys gobble up the smaller boys.... much like banks and telecom experienced in the 90's. He's also in the "business" as he sells his CO's products directly to the mills.

Now I'm also "in the business" as a OEM buyer of flat rolled product and a vendor of custom fabricated components to a major steel mill locally. In other words I talk to and listen a lot the these steel mill operatives on both sides at STLD.... The shirt and tie engineering, purchasing and sales folks.... and the dirty wearhouse managers and maintanance guys.

Here's what I know.... STLD has cut overtime and inventory is building. GNA's inventory is building as well and all three sizes I buy from them are currently IN STOCK! this I have not seen in three years! We received a 2%+ price decrease on Friday from GNA.... My inside contact at STLD told me Thursday the they got a Corp. letter (that morning) stating a price cut in structural and flat rolled product of a little over 2% and the scrap surcharge had fallen overnight by 20.5%, that's HUGE! Scrap prices are falling and this is always an early sign that there is a (pipeline) glut in inventory because the producers don't need the scrap anymore.

I see the TA on steel and I agree it looks nice, but I see deeper than that. I've traded these steel stocks since the 80's and I know what signs to look for. The prices I pay are up about 19% year over year and the steel index of these Co's stocks I watch is up over 60% in the same time period. Historically, I've seen steel prices fall 10% overnight and steel stocks fall 30% before you can blink an eye. Steel ain't some sexy high tech product, it's just a freakin' commodity.... demand falls, supply rises, inventories rise, prices fall.... STEEL STOCKS CRASH!

PS.... there's a discussion on steel from last week on my thread.

[New-born baby]

Peanuts has an interesting perspective on steel. He's bullish because he sees consolidation in the industry as the big boys gobble up the smaller boys.... much like banks and telecom experienced in the 90's. He's also in the "business" as he sells his CO's products directly to the mills.

Now I'm also "in the business" as a OEM buyer of flat rolled product and a vendor of custom fabricated components to a major steel mill locally. In other words I talk to and listen a lot the these steel mill operatives on both sides at STLD.... The shirt and tie engineering, purchasing and sales folks.... and the dirty wearhouse managers and maintanance guys.

Here's what I know.... STLD has cut overtime and inventory is building. GNA's inventory is building as well and all three sizes I buy from them are currently IN STOCK! this I have not seen in three years! We received a 2%+ price decrease on Friday from GNA.... My inside contact at STLD told me Thursday the they got a Corp. letter (that morning) stating a price cut in structural and flat rolled product of a little over 2% and the scrap surcharge had fallen overnight by 20.5%, that's HUGE! Scrap prices are falling and this is always an early sign that there is a (pipeline) glut in inventory because the producers don't need the scrap anymore.

I see the TA on steel and I agree it looks nice, but I see deeper than that. I've traded these steel stocks since the 80's and I know what signs to look for. The prices I pay are up about 19% year over year and the steel index of these Co's stocks I watch is up over 60% in the same time period. Historically, I've seen steel prices fall 10% overnight and steel stocks fall 30% before you can blink an eye. Steel ain't some sexy high tech product, it's just a freakin' commodity.... demand falls, supply rises, inventories rise, prices fall.... STEEL STOCKS CRASH!

PS.... there's a discussion on steel from last week on my thread.

Lyebaby,
Thanks so much for the info! I like to hear from you. I'll read your discussion of steel stocks. Right now any short sellers are getting their faces ripped off. I'll take a look at what you have over there and post an opinion later today. I've been very, very busy of late, but should be back in the saddle Wednesday.

[New-born baby]

New Born,
Urz has fallen to roughly the previous bottom, just wondering how long before one can say with any certainty that it has double bottomed. Up 7 cents in after hours.
Not only could it be a good technical play, but it also has a future as a company.
Also, what does the TA look like for PACT and CPST.
THanks,
Gwhiz

Will post on these this afternoon

[Lyehopper]

Lyebaby,
Thanks so much for the info! I like to hear from you. I'll read your discussion of steel stocks. Right now any short sellers are getting their faces ripped off. I'll take a look at what you have over there and post an opinion later today. I've been very, very busy of late, but should be back in the saddle Wednesday.

Looks like part of the run up over the past few days was indeed shorts covering. I was waiting for a rally when I shorted X very near $65 on Monday. It started down and then reversed course. I'd love to see a gap down in price on decent volume to get the short ball rolling. The volume on these up days doesen't impress me either. I think steel's flashing a sucker rally here.

[IIC]

Peanuts has an interesting perspective on steel. He's bullish because he sees consolidation in the industry as the big boys gobble up the smaller boys.... much like banks and telecom experienced in the 90's. He's also in the "business" as he sells his CO's products directly to the mills.

Now I'm also "in the business" as a OEM buyer of flat rolled product and a vendor of custom fabricated components to a major steel mill locally. In other words I talk to and listen a lot the these steel mill operatives on both sides at STLD.... The shirt and tie engineering, purchasing and sales folks.... and the dirty wearhouse managers and maintanance guys.

Here's what I know.... STLD has cut overtime and inventory is building. GNA's inventory is building as well and all three sizes I buy from them are currently IN STOCK! this I have not seen in three years! We received a 2%+ price decrease on Friday from GNA.... My inside contact at STLD told me Thursday the they got a Corp. letter (that morning) stating a price cut in structural and flat rolled product of a little over 2% and the scrap surcharge had fallen overnight by 20.5%, that's HUGE! Scrap prices are falling and this is always an early sign that there is a (pipeline) glut in inventory because the producers don't need the scrap anymore.

I see the TA on steel and I agree it looks nice, but I see deeper than that. I've traded these steel stocks since the 80's and I know what signs to look for. The prices I pay are up about 19% year over year and the steel index of these Co's stocks I watch is up over 60% in the same time period. Historically, I've seen steel prices fall 10% overnight and steel stocks fall 30% before you can blink an eye. Steel ain't some sexy high tech product, it's just a freakin' commodity.... demand falls, supply rises, inventories rise, prices fall.... STEEL STOCKS CRASH!

PS.... there's a discussion on steel from last week on my thread.

What about the Chinese...I'd say this would be depressing for steel stocks: http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...c=66&type=qcna

[Lyehopper]

Is this a bullish or bearish chart?

Hey NBB, Runner, Peanuts, Spike, Etc.... This is a stock chart of a steel company. Whould you read it as bullish or bearish and why? Thanks

[New-born baby]

New Born,
Urz has fallen to roughly the previous bottom, just wondering how long before one can say with any certainty that it has double bottomed. Up 7 cents in after hours.
Not only could it be a good technical play, but it also has a future as a company.
Also, what does the TA look like for PACT and CPST.
THanks,
Gwhiz

Okay, let's talk about URZ: the weekly looks like a piece of junk falling into the depths of the ocean. If it busts current support, then 25 cents could possibly come back in vogue. Junko, senor

The daily sports an inverted hammer, which means it may go up Monday, and this could be the double bottom, but only if it goes up from here. Monday's action will confirm the hammer. If it goes up, then you have a shot at it. The chart doesn't look all that promising, but then again, all excellent TA choses a support entry (right here!), puts a stop under it and aims for a decent target with a r/r ratio of 4:1 or better, and sees what happens. Perhaps this one will move higher. All we can do is recognize that this is support; try it and see

[New-born baby]

New Born,
Urz has fallen to roughly the previous bottom, just wondering how long before one can say with any certainty that it has double bottomed. Up 7 cents in after hours.
Not only could it be a good technical play, but it also has a future as a company.
Also, what does the TA look like for PACT and CPST.
THanks,
Gwhiz

PACT has a much more bullish chart. Should PACT successfully breakout above the $6.50 mark, she looks good to run to about $7.75+.

CPST:just collided with its 200 day. Short her down with stop just above the 200 day.

[New-born baby]

Hey NBB, Runner, Peanuts, Spike, Etc.... This is a stock chart of a steel company. Whould you read it as bullish or bearish and why? Thanks

Lyebaby:
You didn't specify time frame, so it could be a one minute chart to a weekly But in any case, you'll see three lines on the chart. Bottom two lines represent the current support/resistance lines, and the top line represents the resistance I would want to be taken out before I jump in at current levels. In other words, the current price action is range bound between the support/resistance lines. Volume shows a recent spike, so it may take out the resistance next day. Bullish if she takes out the resistance; bearish is she drops below support.

[spikefader]

NB, you think DRIV has any gas in the tank?

I think it probably does.

[spikefader]

Hey NBB, Runner, Peanuts, Spike, Etc.... This is a stock chart of a steel company. Whould you read it as bullish or bearish and why? Thanks

Here ya go, Lye.

[Lyehopper]

CPST:just collided with its 200 day. Short her down with stop just above the 200 day.

CPST is about 70% below it's MA 200.... Now it's sitting right on it's MA 50.... Are you sure you punched up the correct ticker?

[spikefader]

STEC setsup as a hottie today at current levels intraday.

http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/16/stec-bullish/

[Gwhiz]

GROW
inverted head and shoulders?