Hot Pick Of The Day

[spikefader]

..EBAY reports tonight ... won't be surprised at all if it gets whacked. Shorting the pop to 29.30 is what I'll be doing, and hopefully catch a nice ride down. Caution longs there too

Well I'm short from 29.30 dudes! My R/R is so insane you'll think I'm a crazy! SssSss. I note that early plunge to 27.20....hmmm..ain't that curious. If I were a gambling man, I'd bet Rob bought the discount this evening... 7% discount gotta be tempting to the FAing wonder he is

Just shorted AAPL at 75.48 too...if anyone is in for a 'hot' pick for earnings

[spikefader]

..shorted AAPL at 75.48...

The thread is quiet I see; where is everybuddy!

Covered ~-2% on AAPL. Holding EBAY short.

[Tatnic]

Just shorted AAPL at 75.48 too...if anyone is in for a 'hot' pick for earnings

maybe you meant 74.48, but maybe not. I too noticed some potential on the short side of aapl since the chart could suggest some peaking action but I decided not to take the trade. Just didn't feel right. I'll probably regret it but it won't be the first or last time. Good luck to you on that short. Hey, Goog reports tomorrow, that's always good for some blood!

[skiracer]

Newbies today.... SssSss. Market mechanics?? .... hmmm. Sounds way too complicated for me, dude!

Hey, it's probably just dumb luck, Tats, but my market direction skills are doin' nicely this year, thanks.

Seriously though, some things never change, some things are just expressions of what has always been, and will always be... like human emotion that you allude to. Made it an earnest endeavor of mine to not only control fear and emotion, but to look for where it exists in a chart ... to look for "what is"....and to respect "what is" for the entire time "it is", and up until "it isn't". A detour from "what is" can sometimes reward, and in that case stupidity is mistakenly highlighted as apparent brilliance, and the bad behavior isn't corrected.

And with that in mind, Tatnic, from a purely technical basis ... nothing to do with ppi or cpi or pee in yer eye, I currently see high potential for correction from current levels. Early yesterday? Obviously......and that's why stops save lives .

But for what it's worth, today is the same story. "caution longs" from me. Price action and volume today supports the short potential. And my +168 YM points have been from shorts, save one long setup at the open, so the bias is being rewarded nicely. All are welcome in my live chat, by the way.

Now .. AAPL's earnings tonight might be wonderful and it pops. I actually like it long while it stays over $72.60 fuzzy support, but below that and there's the TA reason to sell it down to the gap. There does appear to be a bearish diamond forming AAPL.

And I note EBAY reports tonight too.... Won't be surprised at all if it gets whacked. Shorting the pop to 29.30 is what I'll be doing, and hopefully catch a nice ride down. Caution longs there too
Ski, I respect that, and you raise a good concept; whether it's worth trying to anticipate broader market direction. For me, it's worth it. I have enjoyed being right much more than I'm wrong, and if I'm wrong the bias is not wrong for long. The market direction stuff I've posted about in recent times ... eg. weekly $VIX closes over 18.00, fuzzy counting of indexes, Vector stuff, have for me been excellent tools that have correctly predicted the recent rally, and selloffs and rallies before that. Newborn posted some positive thoughts about that VIX TA I did around the time of the bounce, and I agree with him; it's stuff you can use for life. It's not mumbo jumbo or smoke and daggers, and it was uncanny how timely it was. Is it the be all and end all? Is any TA the be all and end all? Nope. Patterns fail. Resistance breaks and support fails. Chartists are flexible and happy to flip bias if circumstances warrant. But bottom line is there are certain "things" that happen relative to other "things", certain reactions to long-term technical events or conditions, that can give you a distinct edge when trading both individual stocks and/or futures. It's much like the phrase "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink". And you can hardly blame anyone who is skeptical of TA, for there are many ways to get lost in TA, and lose fail in stuff that's 'supposed to work' but doesn't.

The bottom line though, is yes Ski, trade what you see and not what you think. And that's what I always attempt to do. I try to trade what I see. The minute I start telling the market what I think it should do is the minute I'll get my head handed to me. But despite that, the market does whisper things, and if you listen closely and assign the correct weight to the TA, and remain flexible, you can use those observations and that knowledge to not only find great setups, but also do your best to stay on 'the right side' of the market at critical times. That's not to suggest you must trade in line with that bias. I don't do that at all. Eg. I'm long ELN when I'm expecting significant market correction. Why? Because you and I both know that stocks do run against broader market action. ELN is one of those stocks..it's crazy, we all know that LOL. But also, more importantly, you shouldn't ignore great swing TA setups that happen to be against any broader market bias you might have. And you and I both know the reason one shouldn't is because a) the bias may be 100% wrong, and b) one would be in a constant state of swing confusion if they did.

What a mouthful all that was! Apologies dudes. I'm actually not telling the market that it should go up or down...but I am observing that at various points in time there is greater potential for movement...significant movement, and we should all look for those moments and respect them. At the end of the day it comes down to sensible money management, good risk/reward parameters, discipline, risk control, and diversification. But you already knew all that, ski

Best to all.

Well I agree with you 100 % Spike on everything that you've said. Another thing that I do know for sure is that you and I are on the same page with the most important essentials of what it takes to be successful at this.

[spikefader]

maybe you meant 74.48, but maybe not. I too noticed some potential on the short side of aapl since the chart could suggest some peaking action but I decided not to take the trade. Just didn't feel right. I'll probably regret it but it won't be the first or last time. Good luck to you on that short. Hey, Goog reports tomorrow, that's always good for some blood!

No, I meant 75.48. Look at the afterhours data and you'll see the price action and the pop I shorted into. Thanks for the wishes, but the entry was a poor one and I'm flat already. Thanks for the reminder for GOOG, yes, that'll be a volatile one no doubt......although I favor buying any earning dip to say 410.00ish (depending on intraday action tomorrow) to look for a quick 3 or 4% scalp.

[billyjoe]

No, I meant 75.48. Look at the afterhours data and you'll see the price action and the pop I shorted into. Thanks for the wishes, but the entry was a poor one and I'm flat already. Thanks for the reminder for GOOG, yes, that'll be a volatile one no doubt......although I favor buying any earning dip to say 410.00ish (depending on intraday action tomorrow) to look for a quick 3 or 4% scalp.

Spike,
You're recommending a long on GOOG even if they report bad earnings? I don't understand unless you are incredibly bullish on GOOG. Don't you think a bad report will take them below 410 ?

--------------billyjoe

[Runner]

Hey NB, here a few I'm looking at and was wondering what your thoughts are on them..
ACLI X BDC CLF GME
BTH looks crazy

[New-born baby]

Hey NB, here a few I'm looking at and was wondering what your thoughts are on them..
ACLI X BDC CLF GME
BTH looks crazy

I love the Runner. He always has some meat for us MM types

X: nice chart. A move past $69.51 would point to a very nice 1st target of $85; 2nd target of $95. What's wrong with that?

ACLI:very bullish chart! I like this one right here.

BDC: another beauty. I like an entry right here.

CLF: have traded Cleveland in the past. I like it right here. Nice chart.

GME: I'd like an entry at $50, please.

BTH: too crazy; too overbought for my tastes.

I could trade them all, except BTH. I don't like to chase those upward handles. Thanks for posting.

[Gwhiz]

ACLI had 17 % of float shorted as of 9/12/06

[Runner]

Thanks NB your always on your toes. Hey last point keep your eye on energies. Not sure what to make of then now but I noticed several hitting my screens. I will let them prove which direction they want and then look at the next pull back

[Gwhiz]

gme has 27 %!!!

[New-born baby]

gme has 27 %!!!

Makes for a very nice short squeeze when the price moves up, doesn't it?

[Peter Hansen]

NB Hello There

NB ADDL and ADZA look good here.....ADZA is a drug company hopefully on Friday 10/20/06 getting final approval on a early pregnancy prevention drug....Your analysis on the two would be most helpful ......Thanks and have a beautiful day,,,,,,and give that son of yours a good hug! Pete

[New-born baby]

NB ADDL and ADZA look good here.....ADZA is a drug company hopefully on Friday 10/20/06 getting final approval on a early pregnancy prevention drug....Your analysis on the two would be most helpful ......Thanks and have a beautiful day,,,,,,and give that son of yours a good hug! Pete

Thank you, Mr. Hansen Now let's consider ADDL:
Still below its 50 day, so it's officially a bearish stock. It has a strong support at $.70, so I like it above that level. Unfortunately it has lots of overhead resistance, and got a knot on its head when it bumped up against the $.90 resistance yesterday. In summary, a long here with a stop at $.69 and targets of $1.00, $1.20 and $1.90.

ADZA: also sports lots of overhead resistance. Right now has support at $18 and resistance at $19. I think $19 resistance fails quickly and she moves up. Very strong support at $16 and $17 levels, and if she did pull back that far, I'd be looking to enter here. Bearish engulfing candle on the daily yesterday; that suggests a three to ten day pullback. Topping tails also say she pulls back for a few days. RSI confirms she's too hot. I guess I'd put it this way: look to buy it at the 200 day level soon, and hang on. Bullish chart with a $22 target. I like this chart. This thing has a volatility of 5% per day! Not for sissys.

[peanuts]

NB ADDL and ADZA look good here.....ADZA is a drug company hopefully on Friday 10/20/06 getting final approval on a early pregnancy prevention drug....Your analysis on the two would be most helpful ......Thanks and have a beautiful day,,,,,,and give that son of yours a good hug! Pete

Hey Pete,

Fundamentally speaking, ADDL is solid. It would have been helped by hurricanes this year, so the lack of bad weather may be why the chart is showing the recent weakness. The earnings report should blow your mind when it is released, but I don't know what kind of reaction the street will have towards the report, or when it will be published. We may see a run going into earnings as they are expected to be enormous from some other investors (like me)

I've owned this stock on and off... Rode it once from .8 to 1.3 when it was ZENX.ob It was a hurricane Katrina play for me as well as PDGE.ob, which, by the way, also looks like a nice turnaround story. Both were absolutely HUGE gains for me percentage wise, but I usually keep a relatively small total dollar amount for sub $5, OTCBB plays; so the actual gain to my portfolio wasn't that HUGE. Alot of momo guys played this stock in the past, so keep that in mind for the future if you get into it

I recently played ADDL from 1.08 to 1.20 or thereabouts, if I remember correctly. I'd have to check my history to give you the actual share price if you wanted to know.