Market Outlook

[New-born baby]

I found some info on the Dow, and thought you might like a post on it.

Here's the Fear Index for the Dow. Note the downturn in confidence. It could signal a downturn in the market on Friday. The green line is the important one: it signals increasing fear. Also note the red line crossing the blue. This is the bear starting to stomp the bull.

[New-born baby]

Dow Averages

Here's a look at the Dow. Looks like a double top, and Friday may determine which way this thing swings for awhile.

[B.J]

Newborn, I've always been under the impression that sentiment is a conrtrary indicator. If fear is trumping optimism, wouldn't the worriers be out of the market already? Thus, lesser market selling potential?

[New-born baby]

Fear

Newborn, I've always been under the impression that sentiment is a conrtrary indicator. If fear is trumping optimism, wouldn't the worriers be out of the market already? Thus, lesser market selling potential?

BJ

Very good question. Thank you for posting.

Let me ask you a question: when you are very afraid that the market is going to fall, do you run out and buy all the stock you can, or do you sit in cash?

I think you sit in cash.

The chart I showed you above is not the typical "fear chart" based upon the put/call ratio. The put/call ratio chart is indeed a contrarian indicator, as you indicated in your post. That explains the difference.

[spikefader]

I found some info on the Dow, and thought you might like a post on it.

Here's the Fear Index for the Dow. Note the downturn in confidence. It could signal a downturn in the market on Friday. The green line is the important one: it signals increasing fear. Also note the red line crossing the blue. This is the bear starting to stomp the bull.

Thanks for the thread!
I'll play devil's advocate and highlight the bullish case with your chart

[spikefader]

Here's a look at the Dow. Looks like a double top, and Friday may determine which way this thing swings for awhile.

I'm seeing up!
Not shown in the chart is a channel turn up from the mid-Feb high.

[dmk112]

I think we're pretty much in a trading range for while, now which way will we break? Hope it's up!!

I heard the guy from VRTrader saying that he's looking for a pull back in March...and this guy's usually on point!

[B.J]

I would feel 100% confident about the market if the NASDAQ finially decided to joint in. It really wants no part of the rally as yet.

[New-born baby]

Market for March 7-11

Here's a chart for your consideration:

When a rally has run its course, it oftentimes is signaled first by the momentum stocks running out of juice.

Incredibly, FDG did not make the list for hottest stocks for the last five days. That baby was up $4 per day Wed and Thurs, and up about $2 on Friday.

[New-born baby]

Out of juice

Notice the new lows of some of these stocks? I'm hoping ELN doesn't join this zero list: Six, count 'em, six!, hit zero! Whoever bought them on Thursday lost everything. And one did a volume of 336 mil.

[New-born baby]

50/200 Ma

Lastly,

The ratio of stocks that the 50 day is over the 200 day moving avg vs.
the number of stocks that the 200 day is over the 50 day is 2.36.

This signals an overbought condition.

[spikefader]

It is what it is.

[B.J]

Interesting stuff Newborn. Worth keeping an eye on.

It does look like a rally to me, though. I'd like to see the NASDAQ join in, but the Dow and S&P indexes seem to be comfortable moving on without it.

Interesting about leading/momentum stocks. That will tell the story. Eveything I own moved strongly this week except EZPW (got tagged this week right along with MM's AACE on legislation news). It has been one of the market's strongest stocks. My portfolio has some Mo in it, so if I lose 15% in a week it'll tell me something. AAPL is worth keeping an eye on, as well.

[New-born baby]

I'm pulling this stuff off the web by those who sell their prognosticating services to the public. I like and agree with Spike's latest chart. The first chart I posted showed a double top, and stated that a break one way or another would be significant. Friday it broke strongly upwards. However, these "high profile" prognosticators are signalling overbought, increasing fear, and weakening strength, so I thought I'd post it.

[RL]

My gut tells me we are good untill 3/15.Then a big correction. But my gut might feel that way from all the beer I had last nite. Because I really don't know Jack S---.