Aapl

[phobophobia]

Still a good time to get in. Earnings are going to be amazing, marketshare is increasing, iPod still dominating, new Mac Mini is bringing in many more customers. I have been an AAPL long since $23--I'm certain it will double this year (from its starting year price). Share your thoughts.

[mtm]

I was riding it all the way up and as of last week I am now going to ride the baby down with a nice short. It was a nice story, but this party is coming to an end. JMHO

Just look at Sandisk (SNDK) to see what I mean.

A P.E. of 70 yeah right they will never live up to that, beside the IPOD craze has peaked.

[mrmarket]

I'm still betting on them...me and Titanomega have April 90 calls.

[phobophobia]

I was riding it all the way up and as of last week I am now going to ride the baby down with a nice short. It was a nice story, but this party is coming to an end. JMHO

Just look at Sandisk (SNDK) to see what I mean.

A P.E. of 70 yeah right they will never live up to that, beside the IPOD craze has peaked.

Be sure to tell me how that turns out, buddy.
Seriously, there is no way it's going down much further from its current price. Short term, it can be a great short; other than that, this company is the future of computing.

[mtm]

No biggy, we will wait and see what happens someone has to be wrong right? Its not that big of a deal like I said JMHO.

[phobophobia]

Hehehe. I suppose. Good luck.

[New-born baby]

Creative Technologies

Would some of you AAPL affectionadoes care to give us your opinion of AAPL competitor Creative Technologies? It was ~17, now moving down around ~11. I thought you may know some things about the company that would be helpful to us all.

And thanks. And wishing both of you to be right!

[RL]

Right now seems a little extended could move down a little thats a good buy opportunity to buy some buy the end of the week?

[B.J]

It's defying gravity, but I certainly am not so quick to sell short. If I had any, I'd hold.

[mtm]

Fire in the hole...

[Ocean Size]

You're just beginning to see what Apple is going to become!


From AppleInsider.com:


Demand for key Apple products ahead of expectations

By Kasper Jade and Katie Marsal
Tuesday, March 8, 2005

In a research report released to clients on Tuesday, PiperJaffray Sr. Research Analyst, Gene Munster, said the response to Apple's key products in the March quarter continues to be ahead of his firm's expectations.

In the report, obtained by AppleInsider, the analyst cited strong demand for Apple's iMac, PowerBook, Mac mini, and various versions of the iPod.

Munster said he believes that 'true demand' for the iPod shuffle and Mac mini will not be visible in the March quarter, but expects strong demand across various segments of the company to allow it beat the Wall Street's estimates for overall revenue and earnings. More importantly, he claims, an easing of supply constraints over the next few months will also help Apple surpass current Street estimates for the June quarter.

Although the Street is placing a significant emphasis on iPod unit shipment figures -- and what these may or may not amount to -- Munster said his firm is focusing on Apple's overall business, having just completed a round of 50 channel checks. This included interviews with 20 Apple Specialist Resellers and 30 Apple retail stores. His findings were mostly positive.

Munster said resellers are more optimistic than they have been in the last three quarters, despite inadequate supplies of iPod shuffles and Mac minis. 35% of these resellers said they expect their March results to come in ahead of plan, compared to 27% for the December quarter.

"In general, things just haven't slowed down really at all following the holidays," one reseller told the firm. Meanwhile, another reseller jested: "Apple is not shipping us much; if I could get all of the products I need to fill demand, I could pretty much retire right now."

Resellers indicated they are seeing the impact of the iPod 'halo' effect, with some customers coming in to purchase an iPod and leaving with an iMac or Mac mini. A handful of resellers also noted that they are seeing Windows PC switchers moving to the Mac mini.

In its interviews with 30 Apple retail stores, the firm found iPod shuffle demand to be unprecedented, while demand for Mac mini remained strong, but not overwhelming. The average supply of iPod shuffles per retail store is currently between 30 and 50 units, the firm said, but noted that 'meaningful' supply of the players has only been available at most stores within the last 10 days.

"We are averaging one phone call every 2 minutes and nearly every call is related to iPod shuffle availability," one Apple store representative told the firm.

For the March quarter, PiperJaffray is modeling shipments of 3.75 million iPods, which includes an estimated 1 million shuffles. In the June quarter, the firm expects Apple to ship over 4.55 million iPods, including 1.8 million shuffles.

In this most recent research report, the firm did not comment on Apple's iBook product line, but noted that Power Macs are receiving the softest response out of all the offerings present in Apple's product matrix.

PiperJaffray increased its fiscal year (FY) '05 and '06 earnings-per-share estimates 6 cents and 2 cents, respectively, to $1.04 and $1.18. These forecast changes include revenue estimate increases of over $550m for FY05 and $175m for FY06. The firm now expects Apple's FY05 revenue to exceed $12.8b, while modeling the company's FY06 revenue in excess of $14.4b.

PiperJaffray reiterated its 'Outperform' rating on Apple with a price target of $50 per share.

[phobophobia]

Fire in the hole...

I believe we're still in the short term.

[dmk112]

If you take a look at the AAPL chart a few years ago it had a similar run to the one in 2004, same parabolic run. Specifically, it topped in mid March of 2000 (hmmm..) and it split on 6/21, it had another short lived run in the September time. At the end of September it crashed and went to a low of 6.18!!

All I'm saying is that history has a tendency to repeat itself and I think they days are numbered for the religious AAPL holders. You still have a couple of months but I think it's gonna end bad...

And as mentioned earlier the iPod is only one thing they got going for them and with Sony coming out with their competetion, the iPod will become less popular it hasn't already...JMHO

[phobophobia]

If you take a look at the AAPL chart a few years ago it had a similar run to the one in 2004, same parabolic run. Specifically, it topped in mid March of 2000 (hmmm..) and it split on 6/21, it had another short lived run in the September time. At the end of September it crashed and went to a low of 6.18!!

All I'm saying is that history has a tendency to repeat itself and I think they days are numbered for the religious AAPL holders. You still have a couple of months but I think it's gonna end bad...

And as mentioned earlier the iPod is only one thing they got going for them and with Sony coming out with their competetion, the iPod will become less popular it hasn't already...JMHO

The iPod is very important, but it is in no way the "only thing" they've got going for them. As I said before, the stock was a great short for the short term--but I'm not holding on blindly. Earnings are going to be amazing, and this just gives a great new entry price. (especially for options).

[phobophobia]

Fire in the hole...

So what price did you short at?