Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading

[cashmaker]

PULSE: Moody's may upgrade Steelcase (SCS) ratings, affirms Ba1 ratings

PULSE: Moody's may upgrade Steelcase (SCS) ratings, affirms Ba1 ratings



01-26-06 03:00 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service on Thursday raised the outlook on office furniture maker Steelcase Inc.'s (SCS) ratings to positive from stable and affirmed its Ba1 long-term senior unsecured ratings. The outlook, said Moody's, in part reflects the prospect for continued strong operating performance associated with robust demand trends in the contract furnishings market, positive momentum in restructuring the company's asset and employee base, and significant free cash flow generation relative to total debt. Moody's said it expects Steelcase to continue to improve margins through further consolidation of its production footprint, and believes related short-term economic costs are necessary to better secure the company's long-term positioning and competitiveness.

[grebnet]

Good to see you starting right out of the gate

Just got back from a 6 day trip to Aruba...great palce ...Now gotta catch up with a neglected portfolio... Just goes to show you , I did nothing so far this week and still am up for the week..

[cashmaker]

First Call Recommendations TUES, mean consensus recommendation: BUY

First Call Recommendations TUES, mean consensus recommendation: BUY

Current 30 Days Prior 60 Days Prior90 Days Prior 120 days
Strong Buy 5 5 7 5
Buy 1 3 3 5
Hold 9 7 4 5
Strong Sell 0 0 1 0
Sell 0 0 0 0
Total 15 15 15 15
Mean Buy Buy Buy Buy

[cashmaker]

If you take a look at all the available analysts research, 99% of them are optimistic

If you take a look at all the available analysts research, 99% of them are optimistics on TUES with Buy or Strong Buy recommend and point out that TUES is undervalued at its cheapest level $20. The reason I like TUES just because it is a safe play with large appreciation opportunity. what can be better than this? Here is Zack's statistics with even higher target:

Zacks Rank 5
Target Price Consensus 28.31
Last Quarter (200509) EPS .2
Last Quarter EPS Surprise 0%
Avg. Broker Recommendation
(1 = strong buy) 2.07

[cashmaker]

New-Home Sales Hit All-Time High in 2005,Champion (CHB) stock is a top selection for

New-Home Sales Hit All-Time High in 2005,Champion (CHB) stock is a top selection for year-ahead relative price action. The company seems on track to post a significant rebound in share earnings this year with double-digit growth thereafter.

CHB will announce its earning on Feb 10 with market expectation .12/share. CHB definately will beat the expectation by at least 4 cents with 0.52 in 2005 full year. CHB is a good buy from both TA and FA. Still cheap here, I am aiming it for around $17 by Apr.

[cashmaker]

Short AIN for its lower guidance and shrink profit growth and trouble in paper busine

Short AIN for its lower guidance and shrink profit growth and trouble in paper business. Also if you want to hedge the market downside next week with possible sell off, AIN is a good short target. From TA, it is on a downtrend and next support point is around $33.

Here is the reason why is been downgraded:

"Albany International looks as though it has run into some problems. Despite indications of solid top-line growth, the company recently warned that earnings would likely be $0.36 a share in the fourth quarter (results were not released until this report went to press), $0.02 off the year-ago's pace and roughly half our previous expectation. The company continues to struggle with the high costs of raw materials, particularly resin, which is the main component in paper machine clothing (PMC), the material that carries paper through the paper-making process. PMC makes up more than three quarters of AIN's top line, making resin prices an extremely important determinant in profitability. Pricing pressures overseas were also cited as a detractor as were expenses associated with recent restructuring efforts. Accordingly, we've lowered our full-year 2005 earnings estimate by $0.40, to $2.20 a share.

However, we think the company is well prepared for the challenge. Albany has undergone major restructuring in the past few years, lowering its cost structure to be more in line with weaker demand. The most recent initiative was completed in 2004, and included the closure of four facilities and the elimination of 600 employees. Theses efforts should result in $40 million in annual savings. Meanwhile, Albany has announced that it will be opening its wallet and increasing its capital spending to $70 million to $80 million this year (almost double 2005's expected total). We suspect that a bulk of the money will be used to strengthen its Applied Technologies business, which produces materials and insulation for a wide array of goods from clothing to home furnishing. The increased penetration in these markets is a wise move in our opinion, given the softness we anticipate in the paper industry. Also, we would not be surprised if Albany utilized market weakness to venture into the acquisition market. Its financial flexibility (the company recently cleared more than $75 million in debt off its balance sheet) and strong cash flow make it a probable buyer.

Still, Albany holds little appeal at this time."

[cashmaker]

Load more TUES at the end, aiming for next week rally. Three days closing at almost e

Load more TUES at the end, aiming for next week rally. Three days closing at almost even and especially today has low volume. With all the upgrade from analysts this week, will see much more momo next week. Usually there is one to two weeks lag after analysts upgrade reports since investors need time to digest it. Liket RNAI i called at $3 when the analysts reports optimistic sentiment. TUES will be the same. Load more here.

[Websman]

Webs.... I had forgotten how crazy you two dudes were "back in the day".... Remember this weekend? heyheyHEY!!!!

We had a blast that weekend! Je,je,je...

[Lyehopper]

We had a blast that weekend! Je,je,je...

I can't remember Webs....But.... Did CashMaker ever change his expression the entire weekend? I think he is smiling in that picture right?.... Hey.... What I do remember is how the chicks really dig that cat.... Hey is that the Eiffel tower in the background?

[cashmaker]

AIN manufactures papermaking supplies, engineered fabrics, paper machine clothing. Th

AIN manufactures papermaking supplies, engineered fabrics, paper machine clothing. Think about the paper industry for a second. What do you think about the demand of paper in the future. Take a look at the IRS requirement this year, all the public traded firms must file eletronic file, no paper anymore. Also all the banks are encourage people to use paperless. Also all the universities restrict the printing papers, and more. That is the problem that AIN is facing now: shrink demand side. Also AIN runing the trouble in the high cost and increasing Inventories. AIN's annual Net Income is shrinking by a large percentage, meanwhile Inventory keep growing. Also recently AIN lower its guidence for 2006. Alfter that, analysts downgraded AIN by two level from neutral to strong sell which is unusual. All these together will give us a decision, short sell it. I believe when the market goes down, these kind of fundemental problem companies will get the biggest hit since they are good short target. How about the upside, of course, when market in green, since companies have fundemental problem, the upside is little.

[cashmaker]

MM want EMC cheap. This is the same trading style when RHAT announce its earning at t

MM want EMC cheap. This is the same trading style when RHAT announce its earning at the end of 2005. I still remember the day after RHAT announce strong earning, it down $1. Then from that on, it went all the way up. Now, EMC follow the same pattern. Take a look at EMC's strong guidance for 2006 and its business sector, you will be surprise why its share price not go up. What factor can be better than a good guidance? MM's bashing in order to aquire shares cheap.

With EMC's strong business growing and strong relationship with other tech companies and high-end data storage technologies, I am bullish on EMC here. Under $14 is imcredible cheap here and EMC is totally undervalued.

Here is another upgraded from AGE:

"Investment Premise:
We currently rate shares of EMC a Buy/Aggressive rating and have implemented a 12-18 month price
objective of $17/share. We believe EMC's leading position in the disk storage and its expanding leadership
position in the storage management software market (both organically and through its recent acquisitions of
Legato, Documentum, and VMware) will allow the company to materially benefit from a recovering IT spending
environment over the next few years."

[cashmaker]

Short more shares of AIN, serious problem company with higher cost and shrink demand.

Short more shares of AIN, serious problem company with higher cost and shrink demand. From chart, it has down trend channel from its $40 level. This stock running a trouble in its business, by looking at its balance sheet, its inventory keep going up and cash keep shrinking. Net income shrinks by a even further percentage. Also compared to 2004 $60,023, 2005 generate negative ($19,840). None of those keep ratios satisfy me. I bet this stock is overvalued.

One big problem that analysts concern is:

"The company continues to struggle with the high costs of raw materials, particularly resin, which is the main component in paper machine clothing (PMC), the material that carries paper through the paper-making process. "

[cashmaker]

Morningstar Alert: AIN Failed to meet EPS estimates again

Morningstar Alert: AIN Failed to meet EPS estimates again

AIN
01-30-06 09:14 PM
Failed to meet EPS estimates again
For the past two fiscal quarters, this stock's reported EPS has lagged the consensus EPS estimates. For details, go to

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stock/earningsestimates.asp?Symbol=AIN

AIN has fundermental trouble in both high expense, high raw materials cost and shrinking product demand. This is a downtrend stock. It is overvalued and I am in short position.

[cashmaker]

Comment on AIN based on its earnings report:

Comment on AIN based on its earnings report:

I believe AIN is overvalued and is on the downtrend channel and should be traded lower than $30. It is a good short candidate. Following is my analysis:

AIN lower its fourth quarter earning estimation and guidance two weeks before they announce a positive result. Read carefully what CFO said, the surprise is due to less than expected compensation and tax cost. The positive earning is not from strong business or operating income. If it were not the tax and compensation, AIN's earning will be very urgly.

Also pay attention that CFO confess that the energy cost is a big concern to their business also analysts report that raw material's price is much higher than before and paper price is lowing. The demand of AIN's products is shrinking (you can compare 2003-2005 financial statement) and invetories increased. In addition, AIN also invest and require other companies which will cost the company's significant amount of cash. AIN's paper business tanking force them to switch their business midel and put more investment into applied technologies area. Switching business model is risky.

Valueline Analyst downgraded AIN from 3 to lowest 5 and Morningstar reports that AIN miss again its EPS estimation. Exclued the "surprised" tax and compensation save, AIN has a very negative earnings for fourth quarter. Also company lower its guidance for 2006 which give hits that the earning for 2006 Q1 won't be as lucky as this time.

Here is the earnings report that I reference:

"The latest results came as a surprise because company officials had predicted less than two weeks ago that earnings per share for 2005 would be $2.18.

During a conference call Friday, Michael Nahl, the company's chief financial officer, said the difference was due to the fact that compensation and tax costs had been less than anticipated. He said Albany International wouldn't make earnings projections again in the future.

For the fourth quarter, the company earned $14.1 million, or 44 cents a share, on sales of $247.9 million, up from $12.0 million, or 38 cents a share, on sales of $238.4 million in the 2004 quarter.

Fourth-quarter earnings were negatively impacted by higher petroleum costs and pricing pressure in Europe, according to the company. Those two factors decreased fourth-quarter earnings by 20 cents a share.

Chief executive Joseph Morone said high energy costs will not go away, but the company has put a new management team in place in Europe that will correct the pricing issues.

At the time it made earnings projections earlier in the month, Albany International also announced plans to invest $150 million over four years in manufacturing facilities in Asia and Latin America. Morone said that especially in Asia, margins are higher on products made in the region. ?

[cashmaker]

Motley mentioned AIN's problem in early Oct 2005 and all those concerns turn out to b

Motley mentioned AIN's problem in early Oct 2005 and all those concerns turn out to be true in AIN's 4Q announcement and somber guidance for 2006.
Oil price will not be reliefed soon and this will keep increasing AIN's cost.Also paper industy is on the downtrend due to the fond of paperless.

Also in Cramer's recap he point out that "Albany's stock, which is near a 52-week high, is expensive, said Cramer. Cramer is not a fan of any other publicly traded U.S. textile stocks. "They're all bad companies," he said. "For a bad company in a bad spot, good news like this is not enough," he said."

Here is what motley said about AIN:

"Those are solid numbers, but investors aren't impressed. The firm's shares had fallen about 2% in Monday morning trading.

Why so? Well, while CEO Frank Schmeler remains sanguine about his company's future prospects, he also sounded some cautious notes in the earnings announcement. Among other things, Schmeler characterized market conditions for Albany's doors unit as "mixed" because of slow economic growth in Europe. In addition, he noted "increased concern" and predicted slowing sales for the company's engineered fabrics division, which manufactures products for the pulp and paper industry.

That latter concern, however, is based partly on currently high energy costs. If those prices ebb -- as history and falling gas-pump prices suggest they will -- that should help mitigate some of Schmeler's concerns, all while helping Albany International's investors continue their peaceful slumber.
"