Where are we at in the business cycle?

[New-born baby]

Huge-ite investors:

Here's a chart that shows how a business cycle runs. The author is John Murray. I think it is instructive to show us that we are headed towards recession.



Click on chart to view, and click again to enlarge it.

[New-born baby]

Try This

Huge-ites,'

I think Murray's chart is very, very instructive and valuable. May I suggest that you go to "HOT PICK OF THE DAY" and sign up for the free SFO Magazine. As soon as you subscribe for FREE, you can read the current issue right off the web. GO TO: "THE SECRET TO WINNING THE ETF GAME"
and you can see the chart I posted for yourself. From this chart you can see that we are in the early part of an economic contraction. It is just beginning.

Basic Materials and energy have hit news highs and are pulling back. Stocks are falling. Commodities are beginning to fall in price. You should see utility stocks rising soon. According to Murray's chart, the market top was last December/early January this year.

[New-born baby]

The Man in Charge

The Unemotional Vulcan




Do you think Vulcan ears would help?

[B.J]

Good stuff, Newborn.

[New-born baby]

Thank you

Good stuff, Newborn.

Thank you!

[Runner]

Newborn, I could be very wrong on this but here it goes. I think we pop up for awhile then slam back down to 1750’s on the $compq. I also have a longer target of 1522 on the $compq. Of course I can’t tell you what will happen tomorrow, but look at the 10 year chart of the $compq and tell me what you see?? Also understand my knowledge in waves is limited at best. Wave study is intense and the book I’m reading is not easy reading..

[Runner]

[New-born baby]

Runner: look

Runner,

Take a look at this section of your chart:



If interest rates rise, and oil, too--this is what I think happens.

[Runner]

WOW Newborn, does not bode well with longs does it?

[ninner]

depends where you are....i have already bought a financial company with good growth and i agree we are in the early contraction part of the cycle

[dmk112]

Speaking of economics, in one of my classes a question that I have to answer:

What would happen if the Federal Gov't was required to operate on a balanced budge?

As this would be pro-cyclic, any thoughts?

[Websman]

Speaking of economics, in one of my classes a question that I have to answer:

What would happen if the Federal Gov't was required to operate on a balanced budge?

As this would be pro-cyclic, any thoughts?

We'd have to pay a fortune in taxes and the Politicians would have to take a huge pay cut. And...no more prok barrel spending.
But, that's probably not the answer your professor is looking for.

[New-born baby]

Heavenly!

Speaking of economics, in one of my classes a question that I have to answer:

What would happen if the Federal Gov't was required to operate on a balanced budge?

As this would be pro-cyclic, any thoughts?

Bulldog,

1. Absolutely NO inflation. And what's wrong with that?
2. An enduring government. Fact: every representative republic has generally lasted two hundred years. They all have died the same kind of death; namely, the bankrupcy of the treasury. When the masses find out that they can vote themselves money from the treasury, bankrupcy and hyper-inflation ensues, and it kills the gov't. What comes next is an Emporer. Do you want that?
3. An end to the welfare state, because the tax burden would be too great for the employed to carry the weight. People would then be forced to turn to the church for help, and they would there get help and a sermon (which is what they need in the first place). In short, more employment. And what's wrong with that?

Those are the first things that come to mind.

[diogenes]

Speaking of economics, in one of my classes a question that I have to answer:

What would happen if the Federal Gov't was required to operate on a balanced budge?

As this would be pro-cyclic, any thoughts?

You might want to look into the money multiplier.
Also, the impact on innovation might be an interesting avenue to look into, depending upon how intense your answer is supposed to be.
Who let Parson Malthus in?

[dmk112]

Thanks guys!