Goog

[billyjoe]

How about a play on Salesforce.com (CRM) as a merger candidate with GOOG. The CRM CEO just showed a Cheshire Cat type grin when asked about it. I don't think he could even offer a "no comment".

--------------billy

[New-born baby]

How about a play on Salesforce.com (CRM) as a merger candidate with GOOG. The CRM CEO just showed a Cheshire Cat type grin when asked about it. I don't think he could even offer a "no comment".

--------------billy

Interesting chart for CRM, Billy. The weekly shows an ascending triangle formation (very bullish) or else a double top (very bearish). This thing is either going to birth a monster bull (target is $87) or else a monster bear. PnF says its the latter with a target of $51.

Conservative traders would wait for the breakout confirmation above $66.09, or a bust of the trendline at about $57.50 to short it. If you like Cheshire cat grins as a bull signal [in Kentucky we don't say it that way; we say, "He's smiling like the possum which just kicked over the garbage can"], then a safer play would be to buy a call, perhaps the July $65 strike.

What are you going to do?

[New-born baby]

Well, if you consider that a quarter of the ads I used to see on Google were for subprime mortgages (now, not so much), and since that business is certainly less lucrative now than it was last year, it does make sense for the ad revenue to be lower than previous projections...

The person who made the bear earnings call is highly respected by me for his FA.

[spikefader]

I'm with New-born.

This was what I said about GOOG today in chat when Riverbabe asked me:

" 15 Apr 08, 09:32: River, for GOOG, I tink while price is under 457.49 it is vulnerable t' fall t' 300.65. That is the bearish gapfib target from the Jan 18 '06 gap down. Aye, it's a good while ago that.....but the rules say that while price is below that 457.49 level, that bearish target is open and valid. While price is above it, it's no longer open and valid. So the gap that the gapfib is calculated off is the critical line in the sand for it. There is a smaller bullish gapfib target of 508.20 from the recent gap on March 24 this year....stops under 437.72 or 435.70 area. Frankly, the price action after the Feb 26 gap up on volume has been less than inspiring for bulls. I tink on the yearly candle chart (1 year per candle) We be seeing an impulse 2 down, and 300 is within reasonable expectation for it."

Chart at http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...ts/GOOG.lt.gif
Some others at http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/charts/goog.html (patience while they load)

[New-born baby]

I'm with New-born.

This was what I said about GOOG today in chat when Riverbabe asked me:

Chart at http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...ts/GOOG.lt.gif
Some others at http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/charts/goog.html (patience while they load)

Gag a maggot, Spike! And the PnF turned bearish on 4/11, looking for $317, too.

Is GooG going to be the spark that marks the stock market crash of 2008?

Get your shorts ready, people. For $1.65 you can buy a GooG Apr $400 put. That means if earnings fail, and she falls through the $400 marker, you'd be in the money. And the most you can lose is $165.

Thanks for the post, Spike. I like to read your take on any stock.

[billyjoe]

Interesting chart for CRM, Billy. The weekly shows an ascending triangle formation (very bullish) or else a double top (very bearish). This thing is either going to birth a monster bull (target is $87) or else a monster bear. PnF says its the latter with a target of $51.

Conservative traders would wait for the breakout confirmation above $66.09, or a bust of the trendline at about $57.50 to short it. If you like Cheshire cat grins as a bull signal [in Kentucky we don't say it that way; we say, "He's smiling like the possum which just kicked over the garbage can"], then a safer play would be to buy a call, perhaps the July $65 strike.

What are you going to do?

New-born,
We also have another name for that grin which I won't mention. I'm going to do nothing. That seems the best thing to do at this time. For some reason I sold all my GOOG at 700+. Dumb luck.

----------------billy

[New-born baby]

New-born,
We also have another name for that grin which I won't mention. I'm going to do nothing. That seems the best thing to do at this time. For some reason I sold all my GOOG at 700+. Dumb luck.

----------------billy

I'd say that is smart luck, if any luck was involved at all. HUGE congrats to you, Billy. And may you have many, many more big winnahs.

I'd say if GooG takes a big hit, AAPL and RIMM are not far behind it.

Just for the readers' information, GooG reports AFTER THE CLOSE. Friday is options expiration, too, and it is going to be a fearful commotion if GooG falls short of expectations.

[billyjoe]

I'd say that is smart luck, if any luck was involved at all. HUGE congrats to you, Billy. And may you have many, many more big winnahs.

I'd say if GooG takes a big hit, AAPL and RIMM are not far behind it.

Just for the readers' information, GooG reports AFTER THE CLOSE. Friday is options expiration, too, and it is going to be a fearful commotion if GooG falls short of expectations.

New-born,
I hope you're wrong cause I've got AAPL and RIMM. RIMM just reported great earnings so they're somewhat insulated and AAPL will soon announce a product that will amaze everyone.

---------------billy

[IIC]

Two thoughts come to mind as far as GOOG:

1) They make it extremely difficult to run a cost effective campaign for small business...I believe I expanded on that previously but they just go through and either wipe out your keywords or they raise the price per click to some aastronomical amount...However, as far as my stock site they do make it reasonable outside the US and I got my max every day when I did that at a cheap price.

2) Although Google Clicks pay pretty good on stock sites I went back and checked my click-thru rate. This year it is only 0.45%...last year it was .98%. That means I'm only getting one click for every 200 page views.

There are probably a few reasons for this...Last year it was new and I did some advertising...This year probably most visitors are repeaters altho I've been getting quite a few newbies the past 2 weeks due to some things I've done...But the repeaters are less likely to click on the GOOG ads...especially because the variety of ads is not very wide...Who wants to click on an add they already saw 2 weeks ago?

On my coupon site I get over a 10% CTR...Unfortuanately those types of ads pay very little per click.

When we used to have F-Links we got about a 2.5% CTR.

Overall, between making it tough to place ads for catagories like stocks and the fact that people get tired of seeing the same old ads I think that GOOG ads probably already reached their peak...or are at least in a long term plateau until they come up with an improved plan....Some of their newer ad plans are not known by 90%+ (???) of the potential small customers.

[peanuts]

...the variety of ads is not very wide...Who wants to click on an add they already saw 2 weeks ago?....

Now, this is a most interesting and thought provoking statement!

Other questions might be:

"What type of person has the purchasing power AND can be stimulated to learn more about a product through an internet ad?"

"Do people ignore ads more frequently when they have less disposable funds?"

"Are the type of people who normally ignore most ads going to be stimulated to learn more about a product if they see the same ad more frequently?"

"Are the type of people who read all ads less likely to buy or learn more about a product if they see an ad more frequently?"

I would be willing to bet riverbabe's bikini straps that if people are feeling like money is tight and they are looking to spend less, then the frequency of them entertaining internet ads decreases substantially. I would go on to place an even bigger bet on spikefader's one good eye that this fact could affect the ad-clicking revenue-generating segment of Google's business.

[New-born baby]

Two thoughts come to mind as far as GOOG:

1) They make it extremely difficult to run a cost effective campaign for small business...I believe I expanded on that previously but they just go through and either wipe out your keywords or they raise the price per click to some aastronomical amount...However, as far as my stock site they do make it reasonable outside the US and I got my max every day when I did that at a cheap price.

2) Although Google Clicks pay pretty good on stock sites I went back and checked my click-thru rate. This year it is only 0.45%...last year it was .98%. That means I'm only getting one click for every 200 page views.

There are probably a few reasons for this...Last year it was new and I did some advertising...This year probably most visitors are repeaters altho I've been getting quite a few newbies the past 2 weeks due to some things I've done...But the repeaters are less likely to click on the GOOG ads...especially because the variety of ads is not very wide...Who wants to click on an add they already saw 2 weeks ago?

On my coupon site I get over a 10% CTR...Unfortuanately those types of ads pay very little per click.

When we used to have F-Links we got about a 2.5% CTR.

Overall, between making it tough to place ads for catagories like stocks and the fact that people get tired of seeing the same old ads I think that GOOG ads probably already reached their peak...or are at least in a long term plateau until they come up with an improved plan....Some of their newer ad plans are not known by 90%+ (???) of the potential small customers.

My "person" says ad revenue is going to disappoint. I believe it.

[IIC]

Now, this is a most interesting and thought provoking statement!

Other questions might be:

"What type of person has the purchasing power AND can be stimulated to learn more about a product through an internet ad?"

"Do people ignore ads more frequently when they have less disposable funds?"

"Are the type of people who normally ignore most ads going to be stimulated to learn more about a product if they see the same ad more frequently?"

"Are the type of people who read all ads less likely to buy or learn more about a product if they see an ad more frequently?"

I would be willing to bet riverbabe's bikini straps that if people are feeling like money is tight and they are looking to spend less, then the frequency of them entertaining internet ads decreases substantially. I would go on to place an even bigger bet on spikefader's one good eye that this fact could affect the ad-clicking revenue-generating segment of Google's business.

You do make some interesting points Peanuts...And of course it is true that saturation can pay off as people don't normally act the first, second or even third time they are exposed...But the GOOG ads...And I'm a BIG ad fan...Seem to be getting mundane to me.

I don't know the answer...But another thought I had after my post is that many business owners expect unrealistic results from their advertising....You don't spend $1,000 bux on GOOG ads and make $100 Grand...So many come and go I guess...What many small biz owners need to understand is the power of repeat biz and referrals...But most can't comprehend that concept and subsequently fail.

Just my rambling thots...thx...Doug

[IIC]

Bloomberg reports Google (GOOG) saw a 1.8% increase in ad-clicks during the last quarter. In addition, a Lehman Brothers analyst who cited data from ComScore said clicks on Google’s sponsored links rose 2.7% in the last month of the quarter. The world’s most popular search engine depends on ad clicks for most of its revenue which totaled $16.6 bln for 2007. The company reports 1Q results tomorrow after the closing bell. Analysts expect sales to rise 42% to $3.59 bln. Todd mentioned Google last week in his Random Thoughts.

[riverbabe]

Bloomberg reports Google (GOOG) saw a 1.8% increase in ad-clicks during the last quarter. In addition, a Lehman Brothers analyst who cited data from ComScore said clicks on Google’s sponsored links rose 2.7% in the last month of the quarter. The world’s most popular search engine depends on ad clicks for most of its revenue which totaled $16.6 bln for 2007. The company reports 1Q results tomorrow after the closing bell. Analysts expect sales to rise 42% to $3.59 bln. Todd mentioned Google last week in his Random Thoughts.

And I just sold all my GOOG! Also shorted it in another contest! Batting about .500 here!

[IIC]

But Barron's ahs this:

April 16, 2008, 9:27 am
For Google A New Month, Same Story: Weak Paid Clicks

Posted by Eric Savitz
For the third month in a row, ComScore data shows signs of weakness in Google’s (GOOG) paid clicks, leaving investors to wonder about the company’s upcoming first quarter earnings report, which is due after the close on Thursday.
Google’s paid clicks in March were up 2.7% year over year. That follows a 3.1% rise in February and a 0.3% drop in January. For the quarter, paid clicks were up 1.8%. Conditions were even worse for some of Google’s rivals, with Yahoo (YHOO) down 3.1% in March, Microsoft’s (MSFT) MSN down 15.1%, and Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL down 2.3%.