Swing trading... lessons learned...

[B.J]

I'd like to thank $$MM$$/Karel for cleaning things up

Kicking back a little bit these next couple days, seeing how things settle, and scouting some prospects.

[dmk112]

BJ, not trading for a while is probably a good idea.. altough on Monday (8/29) I saw some bottoming action but no follow through... are you out of all your positions?

[B.J]

Hey DMK...

Only thing I have left is some AAPL.

Man did I get out of STV and VPHM way too early

Oh well. Like they say around here: no one ever got broke by taking profits.

As far as market bottoming, there are some good signs, but I need to wait and see.

[B.J]

Sorry I've been doormant (posting-wise)...

Update on what I've been doing:

Still in AAPL since about 44.
Back in ORBT (in a little better shape now) 10.88
AOB at 4.33. Should have bought when Grebnet posted about it.
Back in VPHM since 16.80

Hope investing is going well for all.

[Runner]

BJ awesome job with AAPL. Hope that rascal climbs to 60 for ya!

[Websman]

Sorry I've been doormant (posting-wise)...

Update on what I've been doing:

Still in AAPL since about 44.
Back in ORBT (in a little better shape now) 10.88
AOB at 4.33. Should have bought when Grebnet posted about it.
Back in VPHM since 16.80

Hope investing is going well for all.

I'm a Vulcan fool for selling VPHM so early. I did get in on AOB, though and I'm going to hold on to it to the bloody end.

[B.J]

I'm a Vulcan fool for selling VPHM so early. I did get in on AOB, though and I'm going to hold on to it to the bloody end.

I have no qualms with buying back at a higher price, if it looks good. Such is the case with VPHM. But, you're right... something moves 2-3 points without you, it's frustrating.

With AOB, I bought some at Poorman's recommended price (4.42, to make sure I got some), but also planned on buying some at the possible gap fill (4.20). Looked strong today.

[B.J]

BJ awesome job with AAPL. Hope that rascal climbs to 60 for ya!

Thanks Runner. Given the amount of move on each wave ($5-7), $60 looks about right.

[spikefader]

VPHM in review and the count.

Nice.

And remember folks, the VPHM weekly is in a 5th completion. This current strength will get sold for the abc correction - it's the challenge to judge it correctly. Daily upper channel is 15.80. I'd expect some profit-taking around that level.

Intraday doing it's 4 of 5 now.

In review, the 5th went to 17.30 and there's the abc in now. The daily count looks more convincing. This daily is pretty convincing. Next play is buy the 2.

[dmk112]

Spike, the gap support is when the gap gets filled or is it when it bounces of the top of the gap? Thanks

[spikefader]

Spike, the gap support is when the gap gets filled or is it when it bounces of the top of the gap? Thanks

Naturally, they both act as support. Sometimes there will be a fill, other times no fill, and you'll never know if the gap is going to fill or not. Daily volume on the gap day is a hint, but even that isn't reliable. But, if the volume is absolutely mammoth huge enormous (eg VPHM Aug 15 that hasn't even tested the gap yet) then the chances of a runaway are much greater than if it's merely a high volume day (eg ELN Aug 9th) which filled the gap 3 days later.

But in the end, it's about supply and demand, and support is support until it isn't. Perhaps it's luck as to whether one will nail the perfect no-fill gap support entry, or whether one takes that entry and have to endure a gap fill first. Naturally, one's r/r is going to determine whether one can weather a gap fill or not. The gap may be larger than your risk percentage, in which case you get stopped out and take a fresh position at the gap fill, if it still sets up for your 2nd gap support entry at all.

There is no doubt about it; gaps are a curious phenomenon and trading them is an art. And whether you trade 'em, or use other indicators or 'things' to help your entry I strongly urge everyone to base their stalking off the daily, and the actual entry trigger to be a confirming pattern on an intraday basis, and do it in such a way as they reduce their downside risk as much as possible.

If one does it well enough, one can enjoy those slim 1% stops that I like so much. So...trading "no gap fill" support and stopping out at -1% and then doing the same at the gap fill for -1% only has you -2%, which is small in the bigger picture.

One thing is certain, tight stops increase that r/r number which is going to help one's bottom line as an active trader.

But as I've said before, everyone trades differently with different frequency and different risk tolerance, and tight stops may not/won't work for some. One must find what works for them and make it a ritual routine and only modify it if you find something that you know is going to be fruitful.

With VPHM, I'd buy the actual gap support rather than wait for the gap fill support.

[dmk112]

Thanks for the clarification, so it looks like VPHM already tested the gap support at 17.78 on Friday, am I correct?

[B.J]

DMK, Spike, thanks for keeping the thread from falling too far.

I'm not up to a whole lot. Just holding some things and waiting. Still in VPHM, AAPL and AOB, and other assorted small positions. Trimmed all three positions (5.31 on AOB, 16 on VPHM - at least I have some left, and 53 on AAPL). I may trim some more if the market conditions don't improve.

I did buy PDC at 16.60 a little while ago. It's starting to do well.

[grebnet]

Cas

For those interested......take a look at CAS....into 20s????

[B.J]

Bought back what I had previously sold of AOB at 3.62 today. Same $$, 1.5x shares. Working OK so far.