TOL ==> The Summer Solstice Winner

[B.J]

$$MM$$, you make many excellent points differentiating the housing bubble from any other form of investment bubble (the main one being that a house is more than just an asset, and a hell of a lot better than renting).

I'm in agreement with Ski about the creative financing options that make affordability much easier than it should be, but those problems will manifest themselves 3-5 years from now when those ARM rates/interest only expire. You'll see a jump in the foreclosure market at that point. However, I guess I'd be more worried about TOL when that happens then now.

[ninner]

i agree with mr market ...i dont feel there is a housing bubble in general...with interest rates still historically low and a shortage of land out there housing is at a premium.. Another thing to keep in mind is that TOL buys land that is another benefit of owning TOL. Adding to its liquidity the stock will be splitting at the end of July which will benefit the stock in the long run. i think the stock has along way to go before it has topped and i believe right now we are in the midst of a mild correction before it will run up right before it splits!!

[skiracer]

We'll it's all in the course of good dialogue presenting feeling an opinions from both sides. There's always two sides to every coin and story. Good luck with the position regardless of my feelings about the stock. It these posts only serve to heighten anyone's level of research and analysis then that's the most positive factor we could wish for.

[canaveraldan]

Stock Split

The luxury homebuilder said the split will take the form of a dividend to be distributed on July 8 to shareholders of record June 21.

How does this work? If I buy in now do I still get the 2 for 1 dividend?

[mrmarket]

The luxury homebuilder said the split will take the form of a dividend to be distributed on July 8 to shareholders of record June 21.

How does this work? If I buy in now do I still get the 2 for 1 dividend?

If you own the stock before the stock splits, you get twice as many shares as you had. It's no different than any other kind of split.

[mrmarket]

We'll it's all in the course of good dialogue presenting feeling an opinions from both sides. There's always two sides to every coin and story. Good luck with the position regardless of my feelings about the stock. It these posts only serve to heighten anyone's level of research and analysis then that's the most positive factor we could wish for.

Well said. Remember, I have 68 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I am confident this one will be added to my streak.

[skiracer]

You are one of the TITANS. And you're a dead ringer for my brother-in-law who by the way is worth a zillion.

[canaveraldan]

Still on the stock split questin

So what does the "to shareholders of record June 21" part mean.

This is something that has never been clear to me.

Your Hugeness, Thanks in advance for your reply

[casinoboy3]

So what does the "to shareholders of record June 21" part mean.

This is something that has never been clear to me.

Your Hugeness, Thanks in advance for your reply

The date means nothing. If you have X shares at $100 on July 7th, you will have 2X shares on July 8th each worth $50. Doesn't matter when you buy them.

[mimo_100]

So what does the "to shareholders of record June 21" part mean.

This is something that has never been clear to me.

Your Hugeness, Thanks in advance for your reply

If you entered your order to buy on June16 and the order filled, you would be required to pay for it in 3 business days, which in this case, would have been June 21. Therefore you would have been a stockholder of record on June 21. Actually the company would have been smarter to leave the record date out and focus on the distribution date and the ex-dividend date. (see table below) The most important thing is when the new shares will be distributed and the ex-dividend date (it appears that they will distribute after the market close on July 8.) It is at that time that the price of the stock is adjusted. Assuming that the stock closes at $102 on July 8, it will open the next trading day (July 11) at $102/2 = $51 per share. Stocks formerly appeared in the quotes two ways, TOL and TOLwi(when issued). Thus you had a choice of buying at $102 or $51 per share. If you bot at $102, you would get the stock dividend when they distributed it. If you bought at $51, obviously you would not.


In this case, it doesn’t matter whether you are a stockholder of record or not regarding your equity in this issue. The scenario would be different if they declared a cash dividend. You must be a stockholder of record to get the cash.



Yahoo Splits Calendar - July 2005
Payable Ex Date Company Symbol

Jul 01 Jul 05 Capital City Bank CCBG
Jul 08 Jul 11 Toll Brothers TOL

[mimo_100]

Difference of opinion is what makes a horse race. I just feel somewhat differently about the play. Nothing personal. I loved the CMTL play and traded it a few times for several thousand in gains. Bought it again this week and am still holding it. I just feel that the housing market is considerably overbought. As far as interest rates are concerned I only believe what actually happens when it happens and not what any of the papers forecast. Not saying that what Barron's says is right or wrong but I've learned to not rely to heavily on their prognosis or forecasts. I also feel the Fed is way out of line an out of touch with what is really going down and that they're manipulating the rates to keep the whole thing afloat and in line with what the administration wants and needs.
Dialogue, whether it be agreeable or dissenting, is the key to an open forum. Nothing I ever post here should be taken personally. I'm a capitalist before anything else except God and my family, just like I believe you are. Like I said I don't want to rain on anyone's parade or put the horns on anyone's positions with my feelings or posts. But like Soupy Sales says, " be true to your teeth and they won't be false to you." You do know that I only wish you the best of luck with the position regardless of my own positions or feelings. After all it's only money.

MrMarket would be the first to tell anyone on the importance of everyone doing their own due diligence. Here is what he says on his website: ” First of all, I’m just another investor like you. I’m not a licensed securities professional or a financial advisor (nor do I want to be) so in no way should this be construed as me providing information to anyone. This is not investment advice, just a reflection of what I’m doing presently in the market. So take it for what it’s worth => PLEASE è everyone looking at this website should do their own homework. “



I do my own analysis. In this case I believe that TOL will go lower before it will go higher. If I am wrong, all I lose is one opportunity. I tend to ignore media stuff, bubbles, bangles and bright shiny beads. The market leads the economy, although many feel just the opposite.



MrMarket has a tremendous track record. It is very hard to be critical of his success. He does a great job and deserves all the accolades that he gets. I do, however, believe we could have a lively discussion on the entry points into his picks. It is easy to look backwards and see times when it would have been better to wait.



By the way MrMarket, congratulations on your recent successes. YOU are HUGE.



Tim

[aggredior]

Love the company, hate the chart. Looks like a climax top followed by high volume down/low volume up days. It took a heavy hit today. Hopefully, it will find stability around 99, but it may very well retrace (pre split) to 94 or 89--50 dma is 88.58. I like this stock long term, but don't think it will hit the 115's in the next 4-6 wks. This is an interesting pick which should give the chart watchers so fun.

[ninner]

your wrong on climax top call...i dont see where the runup is more in the last weeks then other runups.....as far as won's defination of tops....it doesnt apply...however, i think previous gains have to be digested before more gains are made but patience is the key.....just pulled the trigger on another stock today...GRP.....the rs line has made new highs before the stock has....i believe a breakout is imminent!!!

[aggredior]

Ninner,

You're right, there have been larger price increases previously. I probably should have stated it as a reversal day and wait to see if it becomes a key reversal day. The volume on the 17th was significant and, IMO, the low close should give some concern.

Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring. A break either direction is very possible. Since I don't own this stock, let's hope you are right.

[mrmarket]

Ninner,

You're right, there have been larger price increases previously. I probably should have stated it as a reversal day and wait to see if it becomes a key reversal day. The volume on the 17th was significant and, IMO, the low close should give some concern.

Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring. A break either direction is very possible. Since I don't own this stock, let's hope you are right.

You guys waste too much time with all this mumbo jumbo...it's EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS that ultimately drive a stock price.