AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

AMLN made the list!

Naked short list, that is:

http://www.buyins.net/tools/short_list.php?dys=1

[jiesen]

That's an increase of 21% for Byetta and 10% for Symlin, over the previous week. This is HUGE!

[jiesen]

AMLN up today on outstanding scrip #'s

Check these numbers out:

Byetta Aug 5 weekly 5181 total, 4753 new
Symlyn Aug 5 weekly 1334 total, 1007 new

[New-born baby]

Amln

Nice recovery this afternoon.

[jiesen]

FDG vs ARLP

Jiesen,
You're a smart FA guy. FDG is expected to split 2 for 1, or 3 for 1 soon. Expected to pay a $20 divy in 2006. Current price is $105. Sister to ARLP.
What does a guy like you think of FDG?

Well, on the surface, FDG looks ok to me. Splits of course make absolutely no difference to a FA driven investor like me. Dividends do matter, but if there's going to be a big one for some special reason, and especially if it's common knowledge, that won't send me out running to buy the stock. $20 is quite a bit higher than their regular $4 dividend, and I doubt it's sustainable any more than FRO's $22 dividend this year is. Of course, I'm not stating that unequivocally, as I haven't read any of their financials, like I have with ARLP. For me, I already own a coal stock, and to buy another right now doesn't make too much sense, especially since prices are at a point where I was just about to sell, not buy. But if I had to take ARLP's gains off the table, and put it into another coal, FDG might be a good one to pick, considering that ARLP may have gotten a bit ahead lately- it looks that way here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=FDG&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=arlp

but maybe ARLP is just outperforming because it's a better business model...
I bought ARLP because it meets $$MM's stringent criteria for a 15% gain. FDG doesn't, because it lost money in 2002. Maybe that doesn't really matter, but then again, maybe it does! The revenues are growing nicely, but earnings are a little sporadic. I kept ARLP because the more I learn about it, the better I like having it in my portfolio- and I really don't want to give up my only energy stock. I've done that every time I've bought one, simply because my target was hit early, and I was out! I don't know enough about FDG to say either way, but it is a Canadian stock, and there is also some risk inherent in that. I owned PVX about 2 years ago, but sold it when I heard that they were going to restrict foreign ownership (me) from owning it because it had approached the 50% Canadian owned "limit" they have for it. What a bummer that turned out to be:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PVX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Anyway, I'm happy with ARLP, and probably won't give any other coal stocks too much attention in the short term, so if you do decide to go with FDG, good luck with it!

[New-born baby]

Fdg

on that note, I don't think I'll be selling my ARLP even when it hits my previously stated $100 target. I don't want to be caught "energyless" when oil hits $100/bbl!

Jiesen,
You're a smart FA guy. FDG is expected to split 2 for 1, or 3 for 1 soon. Expected to pay a $20 divy in 2006. Current price is $105. Sister to ARLP.
What does a guy like you think of FDG?

[jiesen]

on that note, I don't think I'll be selling my ARLP even when it hits my previously stated $100 target. I don't want to be caught "energyless" when oil hits $100/bbl!

[New-born baby]

Even oil stocks are down!

yeah, I understand, believe me. the crappy market conditions today will do that to ya. But AMLN is one of just a few (NGPS included!) of my stocks holding up- even green still- with all of the selling going on.

maybe if oil would stop setting new highs every freaking day, we could return to our regularly scheduled bullish programming.

Incredibly, even some of the oil stocks are down today. EENC for example.
So much for a bullish Friday.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I didn't short AMLN. I am just saying what the chart says, which is it looks like it cannot bust $20 resistance at this time, and is headed South. That's all.

Hey, I know I am posting bile today, but it isn't meant to attack anyone. BHMC, TOL, KBH, AMLN, CIB,VPHM--the charts are not pretty today. I am just posting what they say.

Fundamentally, you are much smarter than I. I appreciate your counterpoint.

yeah, I understand, believe me. the crappy market conditions today will do that to ya. But AMLN is one of just a few (NGPS included!) of my stocks holding up- even green still- with all of the selling going on.

maybe if oil would stop setting new highs every freaking day, we could return to our regularly scheduled bullish programming.

[New-born baby]

Nothing here

Do you really believe AMLN will go to $17 because the chart says it will? And are you still holding your AMLN position? Or are you just fretting about your position because it's under water?

I would seriously warn against going short AMLN over the weekend. New scrip numbers will be out on Monday before market opens, and if you're caught short on a day that the planets align in just the right way (the numbers happen to be huge that day, and the other shorts all notice it at the same time) then God help you.

Jiesen,
I didn't short AMLN. I am just saying what the chart says, which is it looks like it cannot bust $20 resistance at this time, and is headed South. That's all.

Hey, I know I am posting bile today, but it isn't meant to attack anyone. BHMC, TOL, KBH, AMLN, CIB,VPHM--the charts are not pretty today. I am just posting what they say.

Fundamentally, you are much smarter than I. I appreciate your counterpoint.

[jiesen]

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortint&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=amln&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=AMLN

Note that AMLN's short interest is at an extreme high of 26M shares. Just because everyone's doing it doesn't make it a smart move.

[jiesen]

Do you really believe AMLN will go to $17 because the chart says it will? And are you still holding your AMLN position? Or are you just fretting about your position because it's under water?

I would seriously warn against going short AMLN over the weekend. New scrip numbers will be out on Monday before market opens, and if you're caught short on a day that the planets align in just the right way (the numbers happen to be huge that day, and the other shorts all notice it at the same time) then God help you.

[New-born baby]

$17 target

Looks like the short term is $17.

[jiesen]

AMLN in latest Forbes.com story

This is exactly the kind of exposure that AMLN needs right now:

http://www.forbes.com/sciencesandmedicine/2004/03/22/cx_mh_0322graduates.html?partner=yahootix

[jiesen]

Another update

Weekly, ending July 22:
Byetta total 3877, new 3656. Symlin total 1132, new 925

This is not 100% verified, but probably correct. It's at least 10% over what was projected for the week based on daily script #'s. Definitely a reason for AMLN to be up 10% (or more) today.

UNCONFIRMED scrip #'s are as follows:

July 29
Byetta 4289 total, 4031 new (up from 3877,365

Symlin 1212 total, 991 new (up from 1132, 925)

AMLN is going to be HUGE!

edit-
Here is the updated scrip chart:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm