Market Watch

[Runner]

Similar action took place in the S&P. Look back in September05 and you’ll see the same thing happen. The market stalls near prior highs and then crashes. Well here we are in Feb06 and same thing is happening right now.

I had to back out my chart a little to find next temp support area. Could be around 1243-1253 ranges. If we break down from 1243 the S&P could be in trouble.

[spikefader]

Runner;

Yup, we be on the same page dude. I'm tempted to shout run fer ze hills....heh

DOW bull flag failure, with that long-term trend line failing again now, arguably DOW diamond pattern, certainly bearish broadening, SPX charts as below showing channel failure and the projection.....my logic is telling me it's got potential to get ugly.

I'm seeing Creme crop failure, 'c' long failures, Cooper failures (thanks DSteckler), cashmaker calling short setups.......my Vector bearish, me holding DOW swing short, what is all this saying? When ze market speaks, vot vill you do? Vill you listen? Or vill you getten ze killed? No position is a position folks. If you haven't already, click on my link to see where ze market may be headed real soon ....

Anyone got a link for negative beta stocks; I may need that..... heh

[New-born baby]

Uh Oh MILDRED!

MILDRED, er, SPike:
Great post! Laughed until I cried! Not tomorrow, though. The way I got it figured is that people will go home to worry tonight, and tomorrow they start selling with a vengeance.

[Runner]

I’m thinking the short set-ups will happen on the next bounce. Watch us stall prior to last highs. This will do 2 things IMO. It will drawl in new buyers and then the buyers who bot last week will dump close to break-even. This may give the fuel needed to crash things nice and hard. Now I have zero facts again to back up my theory but my scans tell me to wait for the set-ups. I don’t have many short set-ups at this time. So caution is needed for longs and stalk for shorts.. You may also get some real nice day trades on the long side this week.. but we shall see…hehehe

[Runner]

looking here in the S&P

[spikefader]

[Runner]

The Nasdaq is looking real sloppy to me. Notice the failure to take out the highs.

[ParkTwain]

The Russell 2000 is where the action's at and has been that way for years. Big-cap technology, which dominates both Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, is too PC-centric and is struggling with growth as one would expect. Wireless devices and infrastructure, HDTV for consumers, and biotech are where the growth will be.

Although I'm commenting here as if fundamentals matter, that's not how I trade anymore.

[DSteckler]

The Russell 2000 is where the action's at and has been that way for years. Big-cap technology, which dominates both Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, is too PC-centric and is struggling with growth as one would expect. Wireless devices and infrastructure, HDTV for consumers, and biotech are where the growth will be.

Would you say the same thing about the RUT vs. the SPX?

[ParkTwain]

Dave, I guess I don't understand your question.

Pick a time period up to the last 5 years, and the RUT is kicking SPX's butt.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ERUT&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC

Here are a couple of interesting related articles:

http://www.russell.com/us/indexes/us/definitions.asp

(definitions of Frank Russell Company's indexes)

http://www.ifa.com/archives/articles/chu_melinda_20020807_measuring_active_small_cap_manager_performance.asp

http://www.investorhome.com/cherry.htm

[spikefader]

The Nasdaq is looking real sloppy to me. Notice the failure to take out the highs.

Yep, agree Runner. Arguably a diamond pattern I think.....



example diamond:

[DSteckler]

Dave, I guess I don't understand your question.

Pick a time period up to the last 5 years, and the RUT is kicking SPX's butt.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ER...&q=l&c=%5EGSPC

True 'nuff, except for last year where the SPX outperformed the RUT (4.91% vs. 4.55%). But up until 1999, the SPX typically outperformed the RUT. Interesting how post-2000, the small-caps have done better than the large-caps. My guess is that this is due to the Naz getting hit much harder than the SPX during the 2000 - 2002 crash.

[ParkTwain]

Just checked an idea re: recent separation of performance of RUT vs Nasdaq. Separation between them opened up in Jan 2006. Perhaps the dive in INTC explains most of it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ERUT&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=b&c=%5EIXIC

(relative performance of RUT and IXIC)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=%5ERUT&l=on&z=m&q=b&c=intc&c=%5EIXIC

(2nd chart include relative perf of INTC)

None of MSFT, DELL, or CSCO dove in January like INTC did.

[New-born baby]

Double resistance

Look at this chart and explanation. The Dow and the S&P are both at a double top resistance level. This is formidible resistance, and I'd expect that the market will back off at this level like I warned yesterday.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[spikefader]

Bull suit gettin' stinky and needs a dry clean perhaps????? heh