BMHC ==> The Auggie Doggie Winner!

[jiesen]

What I really want to know is who else besides me saw the movie "Anchorman"?

LOUD NOISES!

Of course I saw it... terrific movie!

[Peter Hansen]

Fuhgetabout it !

My first wife who I divorced in '83 still owes me 5 figures according to the Court Documents...Do you think I'll ever collect?...Too late now although I'll give you 90% of what you can collect...IIC

IIC ,

As the wise guys say in Brooklyn within the confines of the "Fish and Hunt Club" ............FUHGETABOUT IT!

[IIC]

Good thing you didn't listen to me...ELOS lowered guidance

[B.J]

Stay Classy $$mm$$!!

[Peter Hansen]

Mr Market Who Knows?

Selling of stock by insiders is not a bearish signal. These guys get paid in stock. They can't pretend they are rich unless they sell their stock. Sure, they'd like to keep it because they know it will go up, but they have to contend with their wives who want to spend spend spend...whatcha gonna do?

Taipan a newsletter I receive uses a computer extrapolation model to forecast the values U.S. interest rates. based on the forecast, they predicted the US Housing market would most likely begin to DECLINE anywhere from July 22 to September 27, 2005. Some of the top home bldg stox insider sales are as follows.
Centex Corp (CTX)
July 29,2005
Juan Elek Director irect Sale at US 74.05-74.36 US $6,619,000
Juan Elek Director : Direct Sale at US 74.37-75.19 US $6.184,002
Toll Brothers (TOL)
July 22, 2005
Robert Toll CEO :Indirect Sale US 57.125 US $38.462,262
July 21,2005
Robert Toll CEO: Direct planned sale US $ 56,000,000

KB Home (KBH)
July 12,2005
Bruce Karatz, Chairman :Indirect Sale at US $80.2454 :US 54,518,724


Why are these TOP insiders selling .....who know, but more important ...why ALL at approximately the same time?

As A hedge against a fall in home prices readers are given an option of BUYING the IYR September 115 PUTS (IYD UK) .

I don't want to be " Chicken Little" but these are some interesting facts. The bottom line is that No One knows for sure what will actually happen!

[mrmarket]

I don't want to be " Chicken Little" but these are some interesting facts. The bottom line is that No One knows for sure what will actually happen!

Wall of worry, grasshopper. Wall of worry...

When I get on the weight bench and stare up at the 385 lbs I have to lift, it is sometimes scary, and I worry about getting squished. But I still KNOW that I can do it.

I KNOW that, near term, the homebuilders will continue to make big numbers. I'm not worried about next year, and at these low PE levels, they are STILL undervalued.

[Hany]

I agree

Folks,

This real estate bubble is non-sense. Yes, there is a craze that is going on but it's not only in the US but it's happening all over the world, even the war-torn middle east. But the idiots that keep talking about a bubble similar to 2000 are just that: idiots.

I remember when yahoo had a P/E of 200+. Try to mention Fundamental Analysis and people look at you as out of fashion. Let me tell you that the best investment you can ever make is owning your own home. Period! And as long as that holds true, KBH and other home builders will continue to make money.

Value Investors typically use Net Capital Asset Value (NCAV) to evaluate stocks. It is (Current Assets - Total Liabilities)/Total Shares Outstanding.

Most internet stocks had very very negative NCAV. You'd be lucky to find a company that had a slightly positive NCAV these days. KBH has a NCAV of $13/share. That means if the company decided one day to just close shop and pay off all its liabilities from its current assets, it would leave us at least $13 per share. I want you to find the NCAV of every company you got in your portfolio and I challenge you find any that has NCAV greater than $10.

This is a value stock pick but the beauty of it is that it's growing at greater than 20% so it's also considered to be a growth stock too. What better way to manage your money than to give it to these guys and make it grow for you?

[kamaggarwal]

thanks for bmhc, im in at 81 or so , like your anlysis, it should be a great pick, kam

[mtm]

With all do respect to everyone, I would be on the sell side.

[IIC]

The real estate bubble will burst...BIG TIME...Maybe you'll make your 15%...but it will go down hard...Unfortunately I don't know when...But the Mortgage Finance Group is already hurting bad...Rents are down in the high rent district of West LA...It always happens...build and over build...until you have too much space...prices plummet...It will happen...I'll bet Web's life on it...LOL

[B.J]

Doug, I believe you mentioned you work for a REIT, correct me if I'm wrong. If so, how is your company approaching the price situation?

[mrmarket]

See? It's worriers like you that allow me to buy these stocks at a value. Answer me this one question...if you had a crystal ball, and it told you that there was no bubble, would you be a buyer here?

If your answer is yes, then that means it's your worry that is keeping the price lower than it should actually be....see?

[IIC]

Doug, I believe you mentioned you work for a REIT, correct me if I'm wrong. If so, how is your company approaching the price situation?

I don't work for a REIT...I manage 112 commercial office buildings in TX NM and CA....I mostly am concerned with the financial aspects of operating buildings.

[IIC]

See? It's worriers like you that allow me to buy these stocks at a value.

I get concerned...But I NEVER worry

PS...I do have a crystal ball...but it has a hairline crack in it

[div_arb]

Wow you folks are really getting crushed holding all of these homebuilders. Let me ask you this, if i told you March 2000 was going to be a 10-year top for the NASDAQ, would you hold ANY STOCKS PERIOD in April 2000? Seems to me like you folks have bought the homebuilders at THE ABSOLUTE HIGH.

Now one point that was missed in all of this analysis is that the FED is specifically trying to cool down the housing market, right? Well, you know the old axiom - DON'T FIGHT THE FED!