BMHC ==> The Auggie Doggie Winner!

[New-born baby]

I agree with you

NBB,

Where Wall Street is wrong is that rising interest rates won't put a stop to homebuilding purchases. Rising rates are a function of a stronger economy, which means more wealth for homebuyers.

If earnings keep going up, and the stock price doesn't go up with it, then you're back to my "trying to hold an empty keg of beer underwater" analogy. You just can't do it very long.

Now then, if earnings of these companies DO erode. It's a whole different ballgame. But this isn't happening AND these stocks are STILL cheap on a valuation basis.

MM,
Yes, I agree with you completely. IF (I say IF because I am not a MM or Jiesen who does the FA thing) earnings are as strong as you project, it is the empty keg and TOL, BHMC, and KBH rocket higher. However, it seems likely to me that we'll have to wait until 6 weeks before the next earnings report to get any boost. Right now, the market is playing off the rising interest rate scenario that Mr. Greenspan has warned that he'd do. So the shorting sharks are enjoying their opportunity now to earn some serious coin off the chart formation like the one posted above.

I believe strongly in the chart. IF the price drops below $69.50, that is the definite signal that BHMC is headed much lower. IF the price busts the current resistance today at the close, it seems likely that BHMC is doing the empty keg thing ASAP.

I also want to say how much I appreciate you, MM. You really know how to analyze the fundamentals of a stock. I expect that BHMC, TOL, et al, will drop lower and form an inverted shoulder~head~shoulder, and then they will rocket higher. I hope at that time to be on board for the 50+% ride Now that would be fun! Or the train may leave the station right now. We shall see very soon.

God bless the MM. And my heart-felt thanks for all you do.

[jiesen]

This just in: BMHC is a super-strong buy!

Strong buy alert was issued 8/3 after purchase by a certain huge investor. Due to recent drop of 10% in stock price, BMHC was upgraded by FA Investors, Inc to a super-strong buy.

BMHC is not a good buy right now, it's a better buy! It prints money!

[New-born baby]

Strong buy alert was issued 8/3 after purchase by a certain huge investor. Due to recent drop of 10% in stock price, BMHC was upgraded by FA Investors, Inc to a super-strong buy.

BMHC is not a good buy right now, it's a better buy! It prints money!

It may be--if BMHC doesn't fall below that $69.50 mark, the setup is invalid.
If it does, then these guys are pump and dump professionals, wouldn't you agree?

[mrmarket]

the charts tell the story but what it boils down to with regard to BMHC and the other homebuilders is a fork in the road..

If you believe we are at the end of the line with regard to real estate then run away as fast as you can...

If you believe (as I do) that real estate is a growing market, then this is a steal right now.

For all you options experts, it sounds like a great straddle play to me.

[mrmarket]

MM,
Yes, I agree with you completely. IF (I say IF because I am not a MM or Jiesen who does the FA thing) earnings are as strong as you project, it is the empty keg and TOL, BHMC, and KBH rocket higher. However, it seems likely to me that we'll have to wait until 6 weeks before the next earnings report to get any boost.

Actually TOL reports on August 25 and I'm sure their numbers will be HUGE, making short sellers berry berry nerbous.

[New-born baby]

Nice piece of information to have

Actually TOL reports on August 25 and I'm sure their numbers will be HUGE, making short sellers berry berry nerbous.

Well, that's a nice piece of information to have Yes, it would make short sellers quite nervous. Keep the stops tight

Here's TOL's chart:

It says the very same thing that BMHC's chart says: it could very well plummet to $40 minus.

I am not trying to be nasty. I do not know FA. I only know a very little TA. And what little I know says lower IF the scenario I have drawn develops.

[spikefader]

Yep Newborn, great observation with the volume on the TOL SHS. On Wed, there was a channel short on the Housing Index $HGX that I hadn't posted about....and KBH had one too. I think I'll be out of KBH today.

[New-born baby]

Kbh

Yep Newborn, great observation with the volume on the TOL SHS. On Wed, there was a channel short on the Housing Index $HGX that I hadn't posted about....and KBH had one too. I think I'll be out of KBH today.

I am out already and took the big loss. This time I am not going to argue with the chart.

BMHC, whose chart is ready to drop, has fallen $2+ before 10:30 EST. Shorters are working hard already.

[mrmarket]

I love lamp.

[UMiami Law]

My first post.

This is a great forum that I have stumbled upon. MM is in fact "HUGE". I am somewhat new to the stock game and this site and its members are providing me with a great education. Thank you all.

As far as BMHC, I bought in early this week after the drop at under $70. I am surprised at how unstable this stock seems to be. The fundementals of this company look great and I think the market is extremly overreacting to the interest rate hike. I hope that the dust has settled and that the stock will be on its way back to $87+.

[mrmarket]

This is a great forum that I have stumbled upon. MM is in fact "HUGE". I am somewhat new to the stock game and this site and its members are providing me with a great education. Thank you all.

As far as BMHC, I bought in early this week after the drop at under $70. I am surprised at how unstable this stock seems to be. The fundementals of this company look great and I think the market is extremly overreacting to the interest rate hike. I hope that the dust has settled and that the stock will be on its way back to $87+.

I tend to agree with you. How did you find this site? How are the Canes looking this year?

[UMiami Law]

I tend to agree with you. How did you find this site? How are the Canes looking this year?

I was on a Yahoo Finance message board and someone posted a link to this site.

I am crossing my fingers that the Canes will do well. We have a new starting QB, Kyle Wright, who is showing promise. As with every year, the draft hits the team pretty hard. As long as we beat FSU, I will be happy.

__________________________________________________ _________
--The Shark

[IIC]

This is a great forum that I have stumbled upon. MM is in fact "HUGE". I am somewhat new to the stock game and this site and its members are providing me with a great education. Thank you all.

As far as BMHC, I bought in early this week after the drop at under $70. I am surprised at how unstable this stock seems to be. The fundementals of this company look great and I think the market is extremly overreacting to the interest rate hike. I hope that the dust has settled and that the stock will be on its way back to $87+.

First of all...Welcome Miami...Second of all...and this is just my opinion...past fundies don't mean a lot...look to the future...The Top Groups have to fall sometime...I believe that this is the beginning of the end for builders and RE related firms...Of course I thought that 6 mos ago too...But it will happen sooner than later...Best, Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

I was on a Yahoo Finance message board and someone posted a link to this site.
__________________________________________________ _______
--The Shark

You know, your avatar is an excellent one for a lawyer. At first I thought it would be a good one for a dentist, but the more I think about it . . . .
Here's a picture of one of your friends greeting one of my friends on a dog day afternoon:


By the way, we are glad you are here. Everybody here roots for the success of his fellow poster. I think you'll find that there are several posters here who really know what they are doing (I am not one of them).

Right now we are debating the prospects of Home Builders. MrMarket, who really knows the Fundamental Analysis end of the business, insists that the HB's are still on the move up. Give them time and they cannot be stopped. On the other hand, some of us Technical Analysis posters (who cannot see past the end of the month on a chart) are horrified by the chart formations we see. So we do not have consensus as to the future prospects of KBH, TOL, and BMHC. But we disagree amiablically.

If you have any ideas about how to take a profitable bit out of the market, please post it here at MrMarketishuge. And tell a friend (or 100) about this site.

Best to you!

[UMiami Law]

Thank you, IIC and New-born baby, for your warm welcome.

I appreciate the variety of opinions expressed on this forum. I believe the best way to analyze a stock is from all different perspectives. Personally, I can't read a chart to save my life. However, I do have a rudimentary (I do mean rudimentary) understanding of fundamentals. I like reading the posts from you techies in order to further my technical education and to get an overall view of a stock's movement.

P.S. I am not a lawyer yet. I'm still in law school. But I figured, why fight the image of a shark when I can embrace it.