Flattening Yield Curve = Market Top??

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Doug

There are varying definitions of what a Cup w/ Handle really is...Even IBD is not consistent in their descriptions.

Generally you want to see a run up of 30%+ to make the left side high...that's the main reason I question your CwH on this one. But, even though IBD says 30%...I just found some of their examples in their Q&A where this did not happen. That's also where BreakoutInvestor and I would disagree too(even though he posts many nice one's as I've mentioned before).

Here is an example of the IBD double talk:

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1104&status=article&id= 132267040238219&secure=30&show=1

Now...the right side high should be within 10% of the left side high....Your's is good there. The handle should retrace on low vol no more than 50% of the difference between the right side high and the absolute bottom of the cup....You are fine there as far as retracement...but I was just looking at a monthly chart and the vol was too high during that time.

http://trimurl.com/24H

The bottom of the cup should not be steep...it should be rounded...your's is too steep.

Also, we have the vol thing which your chart does not show...While the bottom is forming the volume should be generally low...As the right side high is forming the volume should be above average. The downward part of the handle should form on lower volume until the upward movement when vol should be above avg until the "FLASH POINT"(Glad at least one person remembered that I changed the term PIVOT POINT last year ) is reached when vol should be at least 1.5x ADV.

Generally, the FLASH POINT is .10 above the right side high...But I consider it at .01 above.

Like I said...there are varying definitions and even some of the one's I post at Mr. B each week are a bit of a stretch. Therefore, I consider some to be "Classic" CwH's and others...well, I never came up w/ a name for those that are close.

You'll find some sites around the net (paid and unpaid) that offer CwH's...But, some take a pretty vivid imagination...Generally, if I can't see the pattern right off the bat I don't consider it a "Classic".

Well, that's my take...Sorry to nitpick...but you asked...doesn't mean your chart is not a good pattern...but it doesn't fall into my "Classic" category.

BTW...8 is EXCELLENT

Best, Doug(IIC)

Thank you Doug for the education. I appreciate the definitions.
I would agree the bottom of the cup needs to be rounded. This one had too many spikes to be a classic cup with handle.

As always, I thank you for all you do. You are incredible!

[mimo_100]

Here is a link to the smartmoney living yield curve. At this link, they
go into a lot of detail for anyone not familiar with the yield curve.

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve&nav=dropTab

Tim

[jiesen]

almost a year later, and it's still flat/inverted

from:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=10726

Minyanville's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:
1. The Whole Enchilada What can it possibly mean when the 2-year note, the 5-year, the 10-year and the 30-year all trade below the Fed funds rate? We're not talking about a 5/10 inversion, or 2/10 inversion. We're talking the whole enchilada, baby. Holy chipotle, Benór Bernanke, now what?

• The Fed funds rate is presently at 5.25%. Meanwhile, the entire yield curve is now trading below the Fed funds rate.
  - 2-year: 5.17%
  - 5-year: 5.12%
  - 10-year: 5.15%
  - 30-year: 5.19%
• According to stats from Merrill's David Rosenberg, this has only happened four times in the past 25 years:
  - March 2000, August 1998, January 1989, January 1982.
• In each instance, the next six months saw a significant rally in bonds, a widening of corporate spreads, an average 6% decline in commodity prices and underperformance by small cap stocks.
• As Professor Bennet Sedacca noted last week, the 10s inverted to Fed funds is essentially the market betting on recession.
• As well, on the Buzz & Banter last week, Prof. Sedacca added that the FOMC focus on lagging core inflation data is chief among reasons the Fed tends to overshoot on Fed funds rate.
• Labor costs (which rose more than expected in last week's employment report) tend to pick up late in the cycle.

[Lyehopper]

Wow, Doug--is 8 good?
Now, I am rather dumb, so please tell me how that isn't a cup with handle?
Man I see a cup, handle and breakout. Look here:


Perhaps your objection is that this cup isn't above the old high of 2000?
Your friend Breakout Investor would say (at least, I think he would say) that this is a cup. When he sells lists of cup with handles, formations like this on are on it.

Best to ya, Doug Please correct me if I am wrong

NBB.... I just wish you'd paste the best link on imageshack so we didn't have to click on these charts.... Bummer!

[IIC]

Here is a link to the smartmoney living yield curve. At this link, they
go into a lot of detail for anyone not familiar with the yield curve.

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve&nav=dropTab

Tim

Hey Tim...Who is the girl in your avatar pic...Been wondering for a few days???

[mimo_100]

Hey Tim...Who is the girl in your avatar pic...Been wondering for a few days???

here it is

My AV

[peanuts]

here it is

My AV

Tom Cruise has good taste. Did he brainwash her? Her lower lip makes me crazy...

Isn't she from Akron too? I sometimes have to go to Northstar Bluescope Steel in Delta.


Some people say that Tom is crazy,
but he got Katie to have his baby

[mimo_100]

Tom Cruise has good taste. Did he brainwash her? Her lower lip makes me crazy...

Isn't she from Akron too? I sometimes have to go to Northstar Bluescope Steel in Delta.


Some people say that Tom is crazy,
but he got Katie to have his baby

Northstar Bluescope Steel in Delta, OH.

http://www.northstarbluescope.com/aboutus/maps.htm

Katie was born in Toledo, OH, just a 3-wood from Northstar. I think she and Michelle Williams are both good actresses. To me, they come off as pretty handsome and desirable ladies. I question Katie’s choice of men, however.

[Lyehopper]

Some people say that Tom is crazy,
but he got Katie to have his baby

SsSsSsSssssss! When read with an "Andre' the Giant" accent these rhymes are pretty funny.lol

http://www.andrethegiant.com/bio.html