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Toyota- what a chart!
What does this chart say to you TA guys? As an FA guy myself, I'm loving TM.
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What does this chart say to you TA guys? As an FA guy myself, I'm loving TM. -
It says pullback this week
Okay, Jiesen my friendOriginally posted by jiesen
You asked for it; you got it. Pullback!
TM is a stock I watch everyday. You are correct: she has been on the move. My thinking is that she is at alltime highs and entering the "Twilight Zone." In other words, we have no chart to show us where the next resistance might be. TM has a market cap exceeding GM, F, and DCX put together already, yet US volume is under 200k avg per day--until this recent gas crisis. And the chart is so very choppy--always. As long as I have followed the stock, an open may be $2-$3 lower or higher on any given day. This is an excellent stock to daytrade if you watch its Niekki action overnight. If she has pulled back strong for two days in a row, you can usually buy at close and get some change back in the morning. But that may not always work . . . .
Summary: too high for my blood.
Here's a six month weekly view:
Here's the weekly for 2 yrs. It says very clearly that she is headed to $82 pretty shortly. You have an evening star with volume. The STO crossed--an excellent indicator to point out the tops. Overbought on all the indicators.
FA NEWS: oil price drops, Prius doesn't look like all that great of a car with $2 gas again, TM pullsback. Cup on weekly chart has met TA target.
Face it: Toyota is running out of gas.
Last edited by New-born baby; 09-26-2005, 08:40 AM. -
New-born,
I tend to disagree at least in long term. The public may have a short memory, but after being burned time after time, they will eventually wise up and the big gas burners will be permanently doomed and Toyota will soar. If gas gets back to 2.00 I'll drive to Monroe, corner of 13th ave. and 9th st., shake your hand ,and admit you're right and I'm wrong.
billyjoeComment
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BillyJoe
All I said was that, near term, TM is going to pull back to $84 or so. Too high for me to enter this week. I do agree that long term TM is a good company.Originally posted by billyjoe
Note also that she is up $2.51 this morning . . . .Comment
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TM up $3.3 this morning... talk about shrugging off the bad news!Originally posted by New-born baby
Go TM!Comment
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Prius Smeius
That Prius is very hot. Average time on a dealer lot before being sold is 20 hours. But wait--what about the real value of a Prius? Saves gas, right?Originally posted by jiesen
A comparably equipped Honda Accord sells for $3,800 less. If you keep the car five years, what price must gasoline be before the Prius offsets the initial $3,800 price difference?
Answer: $9.20 per gallon of gasoline for five years.
That does not take into account that Prius batteries fail after 3-4 years, and cost about $4k to replace.
And people are buying them like hotcakes.Comment
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Prius info
NBB, your figures are debatable. First, because the demand for Prius's is so high, the depreciation is significantly less than average. Factoring this in, half of the $3800 difference could be made up already. And who's to say gas couldn't be $9/gal? It's already $7 in Europe, and they're still buying it.Originally posted by New-born baby
Also, people who buy a Prius for economic reasons wouldn't get rid of it after 5 years. My Toyota has lasted over 10 years, with almost 0 problems. If my next car took me 180,000 miles, that'd be over 15 years of driving for me! If you ask me, the savings over 15 years at and average of $4/gallon would be significant- and at $7/gallon HUGE!
How long does the Prius battery last and what is the replacement cost?
The Prius battery (and the battery-power management system) has been designed to maximize battery life. In part this is done by keeping the battery at an optimum charge level - never fully draining it and never fully recharging it. As a result, the Prius battery leads a pretty easy life. We have lab data showing the equivalent of 180,000 miles with no deterioration and expect it to last the life of the vehicle. We also expect battery technology to continue to improve: the second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. This is true of price as well. Between the 2003 and 2004 models, service battery costs came down 36% and we expect them to continue to drop so that by the time replacements may be needed it won't be a much of an issue. Since the car went on sale in 2000, Toyota has not replaced a single battery for wear and tear.Last edited by jiesen; 09-28-2005, 07:14 PM.Comment
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Tm
Jiesen:
Did you know that Toyota was over $103 stock in 2000? She now may test that old high and perhaps make a new one. I'd say that $103 is almost a lock . . . .
(Note: if you bought at $103 in 2000, it has taken over 5 years for the stock to recover).
Last night I spoke with a friend in CA who is considering buying a Prius. Salesman told him that he should expect to replace battery at 80k . . . true story.
That friend also said that real estate is coming down rapidly in San Diego, and that there is a troubling amount of people no longer able to make their house payments, as well as businesses who are experiencing very tight cash flows right now. He sees a strong downturn in CA--CA is 25% of the entire US economy.
This doom and gloom is brought to you this sunshinny morning with cheer by NBB!Comment
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New-born,
Thanks for brightening my day once again. Did you happen to hear what Greenspan said about the 'bubble' and homeowners equity? Thought I had read it wrong , but apparantly he meant or believed every word. To paraphrase
he said that the bursting of a housing bubble resulting in a 10% - 30% devaluation would only effect 5% of the homeowners due to the high percentage of equity most Americans hold in their homes. Maybe on his block, not in my neighborhood. For the past 3 years I've been cranking out home equity checks that have reduced my ownership from 100% to 65% of the home value at a time when the values are declining.
billyjoeComment
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5% is a lot
If true, 5% is still a whole lot of people. And I still don't 'beve it.Originally posted by billyjoeComment
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TM news - sales up 10% in Sept. (Prius up 90%)
Asian automakers also saw weak SUV sales, but none of the payback that U.S. automakers had to contend with. Toyota Motor Corp.'s sales were up 10 percent in September, thanks to a 22 percent increase in car sales. Toyota's truck sales fell 4 percent. The Japanese automaker's sales were up 11 percent in the first nine months of the year, and the company said it set a third-quarter U.S. sales record.
"Toyota's record sales reflect increased interest in fuel-efficient vehicles and hybrids," Toyota's North American President Jim Press said. Sales of the hybrid Toyota Prius surged 90 percent.
From:
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Inverse correlation?Originally posted by jiesen
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Pretty much! Guess we know who's eating whose lunch...Comment
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