Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Spike,
In Crop #1, did any of the positions get stopped out, only to turn around
and go higher?
I am in the early stages of developing a purely mathematical way of setting a stop price rather than using a fixed percent. I use the difference of the daily high and low, compute an average and standard deviation, then use this value to set the stop under (or, in case of shorts, over) the price.
Tim

Yes, I'm pretty sure some of 'em did. And I've pondered the stop thing for a while and yet to come to anything substantial in the way of change. I recall one of them that stopped out tanked big the following day, can't recall the ticker, and didn't track the others (I should go back and look at em all again to see)....

But in any event, I don't like the concept of having no stop or wide stop. I like the limited downside thing. So what if they do end up coming back I must ask myself? Does it change the fact that they've acted like a dog during the play and aren't deserving of staying in? If something drops 50% and comes back over many weeks/months is it worth the time and risk? What if it comes back in 2 days? Does it make any difference to the intent of the system? I don't think so. The intent is to leverage those wonderful stocks that not only 'act right' and don't weaken, but surge UP and not DOWN. Leverage the strong ones rather than 'put up with' disobedient hehe

The beauty of a 4% stop on a system like this is that becuz it starts diversified across 10-20 stocks several 4% hits against some bullish leaders means the port doesn't suffer much, if at all, and the stronger ones make a huge difference when you leverage their success. At least that's what Crop #2 is doing. And crop #1 experienced many more stop outs (cuz market was sideways) yet still turned a profit. That was impressive I must say, even though the bottom line performance wasn't overly impressive on a % basis.

But I'd be interested to read about your stop method once you've got it figured! It may be ingenius!

[Lyehopper]

Spike, you're so awesome, I'm going to name my next newborn child after you. or pet...lol

Great idea Webs!!!!.... I'll name my next registered Simmental herd bull after Spike....

LHH "Spikefader" son of LHH "Powerdrive".....hehehe.... I like it!!!!

I'll post a copy of the papers after I do it.

[spikefader]

[spikefader]

Great idea Webs!!!!.... I'll name my next registered Simmental herd bull after Spike....

LHH "Spikefader" son of LHH "Powerdrive".....hehehe.... I like it!!!!

I'll post a copy of the papers after I do it.

lol oh boy......that's too funny. I can see it now. LHH Vulcan, son of LHH Dart, brother of LHH MM, cousin of LHH jiesen, uncle to LHH IIC haha

[spikefader]

SNUS: 2 completed perhaps. Inside day today. Watch for a powerful 3 up.

[spikefader]

Don't feel bad, Shadow. I've been looking at these charts for over 2 years now, and I still can't make heads or tails out of 'em. Obviously these are techniques that work, though. Just look at Spike's CERS! Unfortunately, much of this goes right over many heads (mine included). Maybe a chart 101 thread wouldn't be such a bad idea.

Oh it ain't that complicated! lol

I'll do a quick CERS review and see if it can get any clearer...

Once upon a time, on a forum far far away....... lol ...... a guy called Peter Hansen mentions to Spike that if he likes MCX, he's gonna also like CERS; http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=5730

I reply 'nice find' and post the chart showing it's in a 'c' movement:


I post the real-time long call at $9.90 on the inverted neckline break:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34254&postcount=5738

more bullish comment later in the day cuz sekto has taken it long and wonders on the best stop:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34272&postcount=5749

Much to sekto's disgust, and a clear reminder of how cruel the market can be, sekto exits the long by mistake after putting in a sell limit instead of a sell stop limit of 9.60 (which cruelly fills at 9.65, 3 pennies off the low)

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34368&postcount=5756

and http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=5757

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34383&postcount=5767

(this last post I welcome sekto to the knucklehead club that we're all a member of) He won't make that mistake again, he'd be up 38.7% to date if he was holding/hunting for the 5 waves recommended
(I mention all this sekto not to embarrass you, but as an example of why a silly mistake can cost us! Perhaps others will learn from your mistake, and that would be a cool thing).

A few days later I enter CERS it in Port of the Year cuz price hadn't impulsed yet. I get lucky with a perfect fill that IIC negotiated with the nasdaq over a dozen phone calls (lol) (that really gave me a chuckle).

I also enter it in POTW, but the opening gap up of 14% (doh) steals my thunder lol.

I post the chart today showing the impulsive nature of it intraday, as it pushes up for a 5th on the daily chart:



You'll notice the 34% target I mention in the first intraday chart was met today.

So in review, it doesn't get much better than this one for a lesson. If sekto had not made that error the story would have a fairytale ending. lol As it is, it's just a nightmare that I pray he forgives me for publicly storytelling! lol

Morals to the story are value the 'c' long and check your orders before hitting 'transmit'!

[skiracer]

Did anyone actually buy it?

[sekto]

lol... Ill admit it was dumb, but i still had chance to get back in.
Never pulled the trigger cuz uncle spike told sekto that chasing is bad. I didnt listen to him on that before and results werent pretty!
Sekto only makes the same mistake two times before he learns. hehe
Look forward to ur next C call spike! BTW hows SMSC looking?

[skiracer]

lol... Ill admit it was dumb, but i still had chance to get back in.
Never pulled the trigger cuz uncle spike told sekto that chasing is bad. I didnt listen to him on that before and results werent pretty!
Sekto only makes the same mistake two times before he learns. hehe
Look forward to ur next C call spike! BTW hows SMSC looking?

It looks good for a 3rd wave move right here. Definitely worth watching tomorrow morning.

[sekto]

It looks good for a 3rd wave move right here. Definitely worth watching tomorrow morning.

Hope ur right ski =]

[spikefader]

Vector closed bearish. Bear suit on. Caution longs.
Just took YM short 11009. Stop slightly above 11042.

add to YM short 10940.

Afterhours weakness (INTC warns) helping my short swing.


YHOO, EBAY, GOOG (other techs) all down naturally. Hmmm... spooz down 10 points, NQ down 25 points....hmmm this could get real ugly real fast people... Why? Cuz DOW is at risk of opening below that long-term DOW trend line I keep mentioning. That ain't good. DOW might wanna look for that 10680 price support key reversal day pretty fast.....and if that happens, that'll mean the 'c' long on the DOW daily at 10730 has failed for a 2nd time.... eesh. And if that happens, fasten seatbelts dudes and dudettes.

Newborn, how's that fear chart goin?!

[spikefader]

Did anyone actually buy it?

SPIKE did!

[spikefader]

lol... Ill admit it was dumb, but i still had chance to get back in.
Never pulled the trigger cuz uncle spike told sekto that chasing is bad. I didnt listen to him on that before and results werent pretty!
Sekto only makes the same mistake two times before he learns. hehe
Look forward to ur next C call spike! BTW hows SMSC looking?

heh, great attitude dude. yup, it's a great way to learn; the hard way lol It's the best teacher. And yep, usually chasing something that you've been burnt on usually only burns more lol But looking at the daily reentry prolly wasn't truly a 'chase', cuz for the next 2 days CERS didn't really impulse anywhere to chase. That's why I still liked it for port of year and week. Got lucky

Now, SMSC.... I last posted this chart:


and said neutral under 31.84, which is under the 'c'. That happened today and then recovered....but 'c' still failed, so put that in the back of your head.
On the daily, there are single day impulses and correctives, and it's still in the 'c' (perhaps completed today??).
Based on the daily (and weekly charts comments earlier) I still like it long, but in current market conditions and the double top there on the daily, and 'c' completion yet to be confirmed, I'd play this one very very cautiously and would probably either close it or put a hard stop tucked under today's low.

Are you long SMSC? If so, consider taking a very cautious approach to it, and I'd be exiting right here at former 'c' support now 'c' resistance.
It could easily search for 27.50 support now. Now is the time for weakness/support plays and not optimistic hoping that resistance breaks. The charts I've posted today are better options I think. Or just step aside and wait for the bull to come back. Tomorrow could get ugly.

[stocks54]

ELAN Options

Hello Spike,

Any suggestion for what might be good pick for ELAN calls?

Best Regards,
Stocks54

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

As someone who does not have the experience,or time to trade Eminis,is an ETF a possible "poor mans " substitute?

In my IRA ,I have a CRT paying 14% yield which is purchasing shares of possible winners,such as BEL.

My other account is used for active trading,and is intended for my handicapped daughters future.This past year I did well scalping Canroy dist.selloffs.Id like to add short profits to the picture,without the risk of single stock volatiltiy.

With a obvious sell-off coming premarket tomorrow,can you suggest a vehicle for taking advantage of market swings,without having a futures acct.?

Ive decided to play ETFs for oil instead of individual issues,as XLE is moving nice and supplies the volume that Im looking for.

OT,Ive been debating Skeptics to Christ lately,talk about mental gymnastics?I fear the end times may be sooner than I thought.That would really test support on the market,lol.

cordially Tom