Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[stocks54]

If it were me, I'd be waiting for the abc correctives now, and during the 'c' weakness to $14.50 area you wanna bid into the Feb 17.50 strike calls (ELNBW) for hopefully <$0.80. If the 'c' long gets bought and it keeps impulsing, then 5 impulsive waves in a month should put those 17.50s nicely in the money by at least a couple points, perhaps rewarding with a 5-bagger or more, depending on all the variables and how impulsive it gets. And if the 'c' fails, your risk is tightly controlled.

Or you might want to try bidding for the 15.00 strike calls during the 'c' weakness, maybe around $1.40 for the calls when stock price drops to $14.50 area??

Thanks Spike. Another question for you. I have invested 50% of my portfolio into ELAN option (Calls and LEAPS). I know I should hedge my position by purchasing some PUTS. Any suggestion as to how to proceed. Should I purchase PUTs for 1 month in advance or should I purchase long term puts?

As always thanks for your response!

Stocks

[IIC]

You didn't ask me...but personally...I'd bail on those...IIC

Thanks Spike. Another question for you. I have invested 50% of my portfolio into ELAN option (Calls and LEAPS). I know I should hedge my position by purchasing some PUTS. Any suggestion as to how to proceed. Should I purchase PUTs for 1 month in advance or should I purchase long term puts?

As always thanks for your response!

Stocks

[spikefader]

HANS 'a' completion?

[spikefader]

I'm a bear going into tomorrow. Vector solidly bearish. I wanna be a bull but right now I'm just a monkey. DOW 10860 is the major trend line and we closed under it after it acted as resistance 3 times intraday.

[jiesen]

?CESV short?

If you're gonna short something, why not CESV? (That's assuming there are shares available, of course.) The CEO just sold $50M in preferred shares, then resigned yesterday. If that's not a solid case for a meltdown, I don't know what is. Maybe it's time to draft a TA chart for a good entry on this one?

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike. Another question for you. I have invested 50% of my portfolio into ELAN option (Calls and LEAPS). I know I should hedge my position by purchasing some PUTS. Any suggestion as to how to proceed. Should I purchase PUTs for 1 month in advance or should I purchase long term puts?

As always thanks for your response!

Stocks

One might be tempted to take profits at these levels. But I think 21.00 is a better area to give it more serious thought.
It sounds like your plan is to hold for the full gap fill?? And if you can stand the abc correctives that are bound to show up soon between here and there, then good for you. I'm not gonna take profits yet; I got green hope fever. I'll be holding my long and will ponder an options play as well for approaching earnings. Definately hedge for earnings with puts and watch price action at the time of release.

Without me knowing exactly which calls/leaps you're holding and where they sit profit-wise, it's probably unwise for me to try to give a meaningful or reliable opinion. Even if I did know that info I'm kinda hestitant to try to offer an opinion considering you're heavy into them. Why so heavy anyway? Are you trying to 'make it back' from ELN?

Here's what I will say though: Make crystal your plan. Make sure that plan is still sitting within the framework of your initial logic and that there hasn't been any price action that should alter that plan. And make sure that if ELN were to gap down huge again on bad news that you can handle that amount of pain. The chart might be looking fantastic and all signs are that we're headed for a gap fill, but something bad can always whack a good chart. If you're over exposed to ELN lighten up during current strength and reassess on the correction should it come. You may be thinking, "But I don't wanna miss the run should it come", and there lyeth the temptation to let her ride in the face of cautious logic lol

Perhaps now that we're approaching a 5th completion you should consider taking some off the table and load up again during the corrective move that might be coming soon to try and shake weak hands out.

But having said that, I take it you're in healthy profit now, and if you're happy holding and you want to simply protect from disaster, grab enough out of the money Feb or March puts to cover your needs. That way they're cheaper than paying all that time premium and you're covered for the short-term, and the cost won't offset any gains from here too much. Just be ready to eat the cost of those puts if/when ELN rallies crazy on good news or whatever. That's the beauty of out of money 1 or 2 month out options, they're relatively cheap.

Good luck with it!

[stocks54]

You didn't ask me...but personally...I'd bail on those...IIC

Thanks IIC.

My reasoning for investing that much in calls and LEAPS (mainly) is - Over a period of time it will give me better return if the stock was to move up. I have limited funds to invest so I am looking for way to maximise profit. On the down side it carries lot of risk as well.

What do you think?

Best Regards,

[stocks54]

Spike,

Thanks for your reply. To give you some idea about calls and leaps I carry:

1) 12.5 2007
2) 15 2007
3) 20 2008

I had call for 10 Jan 2006. I sold them for $4.60 few days ago. I could have waited to get more profit BUT I converted them in long term LEAPS.

"Why so heavy anyway?"
When the stock went down from $20's to $7 I did loose some money BUT I think that it provided second opportunity to get into the stock at lower price.

I know there is a small amount of possibility that result might not in faour of ELAN and the stock might tank again. That's why I am thinking of purchasing some PUTS.

My current strategy is to keep the LEAPS that I have and see how Tysabri sales pick up (Hoping that it gets approved).

"But having said that, I take it you're in healthy profit now"
Yes, I am in healthy profit right now. I feel there would be some uptrend in the price with lot of people trying to get into the stock before FDA decission.

Best Regards,
Stocks...

[DSteckler]

<< HANS 'a' completion? >>

Spike, your most recent 4 is incorrect. That is not Wave 4. The large white candle thre days ago was the end of Wave 3 and HANS is now in Wave 4.

[skiracer]

<< HANS 'a' completion? >>

Spike, your most recent 4 is incorrect. That is not Wave 4. The large white candle thre days ago was the end of Wave 3 and HANS is now in Wave 4.

I was looking at that last night and thought the same thing. I know these things are never perfect but shouldn't a wave 4 down be around 33% down of what wave 3 was up to actually qualify as a true wave 4. I thought it was a bit of a stretch and that it was still in a wave 3 up and that Spike's "a " would have been the wave 4 down.

[spikefader]

<< HANS 'a' completion? >>

Spike, your most recent 4 is incorrect. That is not Wave 4. The large white candle thre days ago was the end of Wave 3 and HANS is now in Wave 4.

Thanks dude!

I just checked the 20-day chart and here it is. I need more coffee before I think any more; my head hurts lol

[DSteckler]

Spike, when you post an intraday chart it would be helpful if you indicated such in the annotations.

[spikefader]

I was looking at that last night and thought the same thing. I know these things are never perfect but shouldn't a wave 4 down be around 33% down of what wave 3 was up to actually qualify as a true wave 4. I thought it was a bit of a stretch and that it was still in a wave 3 up and that Spike's "a " would have been the wave 4 down.

Thnx ski. Ya, you know I leave most of the rules at the door in the room of creativity heh

Actually, it's less creativity and more trying to make it 'look right' at the expense of the broader rules. I thought about my 4 when I did the chart, and didn't like it at first, then thought nah, it looks ok so far. Where this HANS uppy goes will tell us eventually.

[spikefader]

Creme of Crop #2

Closing PKD here at 11.54 for +5.77% on it's only position.

Adding it to USG here at 74.46.

Let's see how Super USG can git! Giterdone boy!

[RL]

Spike any particular reason your out of PKD have been holding a short time but they are offering a stock sale?