Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Thanks for all the input guys. This is a thought-provoking chat and I encourage more opinions.

Yep Runner, the bottom line is making money. Hopefully it's because one has done it by applying knowledge, experience, wisdom, patience, solid logic and unwavering discipline and not childish emotional impulsiveness or blind faith in a hedge fund shorting the likes of GOOG. The former draws respect and honor, the latter compassion and pity. lol

I think the key points I'm trying to focus on in this current discussion is that a) I don't agree with all of EW (yet??)(I probably shouldn't knock what I don't fully understand though) b) I think it's presumptuous and inefficient to try and explain all price action, which is what EW theory boasts it can do. I'm sure there's lots of debate within the smartest EW circles about price action and the count. Can someone confirm this? Dave?? Is there ever 100% concensus? Perhaps on huge monthly/weekly timeframes. But what about smaller time frames? There's not enough time in the day to prove or disprove whether EW can explain all price action, no matter the time frame. I'd be interested to know the truth, but it probably ain't gonna happen any time soon.

But perhaps total concensus is not required to have the justifiable right to claim being able to explain all price action. Perhaps Dave is right; a pattern is always there in every chart, and I just may not see it cuz I don't know enough yet. I guess I'm being very blinkered and selective (motivated by the desire to make efficient profit), looking only for the patterns that I see as good money-makers. And I'm doing it by taking limited EW and changing the rules. Does this require me to call it something different? Or simply have a notice (or, IIC, a thread disclaimer lol) to anyone reading that I've simplified EW to suit my own needs. Does simplifying EW make my logic flawed? I don't think so; perhaps just incomplete. Can I live with being viewed as a very naive EWer? Yep. Should I relabel and rename the 12345abc to something else? Shoot, I don't want to and don't think I need to. I never presumed to think I had a system that justified me laying claim to an entirely different wave concept. I still don't really, cuz it's the same principles; impulsive moves, corrections, more impulsive moves. It's the same stuff. I just don't think labelling all of a chart's history is a) worth the effort in trying and b) going to make one profitable.

I think mimo is right that changing the definitions is a no-no. I think the easiest thing is for site newbies to read the thread and you'll know I'm not using total EW, just simplified version with a whacky thing called a 'c' long/short and whatever else I happen to modify lol. I'll give credit to broad EW theory, and apologize to new readers for confusing them. lol Dave, dude, a thousand apologies if I confused you there; I'm no sensei, simply a humble and unskilled chartist that takes the cream and turns a profit. Comes back to the bottom line again Runner; I'd rather be viewed as wrong and profit from it than the flip side of that.

[spikefader]

P.S I'm flattered and thanks for the kind words gentlemen.

[Websman]

P.S I'm flattered and thanks for the kind words gentlemen.

Spike, you're so awesome, I'm going to name my next newborn child after you. or pet...lol

[Shadow]

I think the easiest thing is for site newbies to read the thread and you'll know I'm not using total EW, just simplified version with a whacky thing called a 'c' long/short and whatever else I happen to modify........ and apologize to new readers for confusing them.

Spike,

I know I’ll come to love and appreciate your charts the way the
rest of the crew does.......when I figure out what the heck you’re
talking about!

Would you be interested in a little chart 101? Maybe a new thread
for us struggling chartist or is there someplace / book to learn what
you’re doing? Some chart formations I can follow but I’m not familiar
with what you’re doing. ABC...123...kinda reminds you of that old
song..... LOL

I’m not the only one who needs a little tutorial, am I?

Thanks
Shadow

[DSteckler]

<< I'm sure there's lots of debate within the smartest EW circles about price action and the count. Can someone confirm this? Dave?? Is there ever 100% concensus? >>

ROTFL! Put two Ellioticians in the same room and you'll get three wave count interpretations.

[jiesen]

Don't feel bad, Shadow. I've been looking at these charts for over 2 years now, and I still can't make heads or tails out of 'em. Obviously these are techniques that work, though. Just look at Spike's CERS! Unfortunately, much of this goes right over many heads (mine included). Maybe a chart 101 thread wouldn't be such a bad idea.

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop #1 system trade closed today!

SuperStock MCO stopped out at 63.30 today for +6.5% on the average across all positions. You'll note the gap down under the psar price of stop limit order area of 63.30, but price came back in volume for the fill.
Initial system culling left -2.5% across the average, so final system profit is +4%. Not as 'super' as one might expect from a SuperStock, but in a sideways market I'll take it. It's as green as a martian's head, which means Creme of the Crop theory is 1 for 1



Creme of the Crop FAQ for thread/forum newbies
Q. What is Creme of the Crop?
A. I take Mr.Market's latest data dump and apply money flow, volume, and trend filters. What is left is the Creme of the Crop. Each final candidate is bought the first market day after the dump, and the weak ones are filtered out via stop out at -4% or bearish daily psar. Closed positions are diverted to the strongest Creme, leveraging their success. Eventually 1 SuperStock is left carrying all funds. The position remains open until the daily psar changes to bearish.
Q. What's so good about Creme of the Crop?
A. It's leveraging the best of MM's dump by restricting the downside yet allowing winners to run. Risk is limited; profit is not.
Q. How long does this play last?
A. It's early days in the system, but I expect an average of several weeks. Crop #1 lasted 9 weeks. Crop #2 is 3 weeks old and running with 6 stocks open (+12,85% on the average).
Q. What's the worst case scenario for this type of system?
A. In a sharp bear market, the system may find a worst case scenario of stopping out on the first day and experiencing the maximum drawdown of -4% on the average.
Q. How does the system perform across different market conditions?
A. It's too early to say for sure. Crop 1 was in a sideways market and produced +4%, Crop 2 has been during a bullish/sideways market and has produced close to +13% to date.
Q. Has this system been traded with real money?
A. Not by me, and no-one has declared it in the thread. It is still a 'project' for entertainmet purposes only at this stage
Q. Why do it?
A. There's little doubt MM's model produces some gems! I designed this system to allow the precious, near-perfect ones, with high volume, trending characteristics, showing money flowing into them, to rise to the surface of the lake of opportunity that the dump presents to the MM audience. The last stock standing out of the full data dump lays claim to the title of SuperStock, a brilliant gem, the Creamiest of the Creme of the Crop, that has proven it can carry a portfolio to success in the face of failure and weakness.

What's not to like?

(Comments and/or input for tweaks is welcomed and encouraged)

[spikefader]

CERS c long intraday.

[spikefader]

Hey, Spike, I love what you are doing. Sometimes I wonder how you determine where “1” starts. I may have missed the lesson. Is it posted on this forum? Don’t stop. I think everyone gains a lot from your posts, and especially your willingness to share your technical abilities – far beyond those of mortal men – except maybe MrMarket.
Tim

Thanks agin heh
The way I see it, a '1' can start after a period of coiling or aimless meandering that isn't impulsive in nature. I'd feel more comfortable labeling '1' if what one is proposing to call a '1' is a reasonable fit to the eye. As long as the pattern looks reasonable and isn't just starting anywhere you like. I think it's got to qualify as a clear 'impulsive' move relative to the rest of recent price history. It's even better where it might be coming off 'c' support area, where price has washed around (in what EWers might call further correctives or whatever).

[mystiky]

Any comments on BCRX?

Doesnt it look like it will eventually come back down to the $19 levels?

These "runaway" gaps seems to always fill on it.

Looks quite extended in my opinion.

Spike?

[mimo_100]

whipsaw

Creme of the Crop #1 system trade closed today!

<clip>
, and the weak ones are filtered out via stop out at -4% or bearish daily psar.

<clip>
What's not to like?

(Comments and/or input for tweaks is welcomed and encouraged)

Spike,

In Crop #1, did any of the positions get stopped out, only to turn around
and go higher?

I am in the early stages of developing a purely mathematical way of setting a stop price rather than using a fixed percent. I use the difference of the daily high and low, compute an average and standard deviation, then use this value to set the stop under (or, in case of shorts, over) the price.

Tim

[spikefader]

CERS c long intraday.

Workin'....

[spikefader]

add to YM short 10940.

[spikefader]

Spike,

I know I’ll come to love and appreciate your charts the way the
rest of the crew does.......when I figure out what the heck you’re
talking about!

Would you be interested in a little chart 101? Maybe a new thread
for us struggling chartist or is there someplace / book to learn what
you’re doing? Some chart formations I can follow but I’m not familiar
with what you’re doing. ABC...123...kinda reminds you of that old
song..... LOL

I’m not the only one who needs a little tutorial, am I?

Thanks
Shadow

Hey Shadow.

Ya know....I really should put together a glossary or sumfin. It's on my 'to do' list heh

First thing I'd say is flip through the thread especially the posts with charts. There are plenty of examples of the stuff I look at.

I'll see if I can put together a list of specific posts where I've explained all this stuff before. If anyone finds 'em, post a link will ya

But I'll stress that the stuff I do isn't the be all and end all; it's just a handful of methods that spot potential. It still comes down to risk/reward and discipline. Stops save lives.

There are occasions I've ranted about something and get fired up about discipline and such, and I'll try to dig those out to. I should get together a list of 'best of' posts. In fact, I'd encourage someone to do it for the entire forum. There are gems of sayings and posts all over the place. Anyone wanna volunteer? heh

[spikefader]

Doesnt it look like it will eventually come back down to the $19 levels?
These "runaway" gaps seems to always fill on it.
Looks quite extended in my opinion.
Spike?

Well maybe it will. But I think you've got that 'runaway' gap presumption askew. They call 'em runaways for a reason....sometimes they won't fill for years. That's why they should never be underestimated. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security just becuz you see a few high vol gaps fill. That's illusion and deception, and there's never any guarantee one will fill any time soon. Anyone caught holding against one (whether high volume gap up against a shorter, or a high volume gap down against a long) and not use a stop and it's just a matter of time before you get bitten.

BCRX: That booming major weekly channel action back in October was telling, as was the weekly channel turn up back in Dec. That combo plus the weekly green money flow for the last 7 months, and the bias is clearly long, and one doesn't wanna be short. Never underestimate booming channel action. It's significant and very bullish. Look at the vol by price at 14.00 to 18.00 too; it's huge and solid. I wouldn't count on it coming back. It may; I just wouldn't hold my breath Shoo, just realized it's a pharma company lol even more reason to not underestimate runaways! lol