Position Drill

[scifos]

What these people do is this. They double the bet size when they lose. If they lose 1.00 they bet 2.00, then 4.00-8.00-16.00 and so on.

Heh, this is what I do, it works just fine as long as you have deep pockets and the max bet is nice and high. As for the Risk/Reward ratio, its actually in better that 1:1 . You are risking whatever you bet and your reward is either the amount you bet (this is the profit PER BET; I think you were talking about session profit) or potentially more if you hit a blackjack.

[Runner]

Runner sounds great I'm going to try not sure I understand all that well when Is the start date?

You can buy any time you like. Right now we have one person with a 200K size position. I'll track the performance with a excel program..

[Runner]

SCIFOS:



Does not include Commission cost

[Runner]

SPIKE:

[skiracer]

Runner,
Nice work. Is that an Excel program you're running or another program that you plug into the Excel spreadsheet? I'm interested in learning how to set up something like that. Could you explain please.?

[scifos]

SPIKE:

Looks like you mixed up spike's numbers... looks like he's lost all his invetment!!

[Runner]

Looks like you mixed up spike's numbers... looks like he's lost all his invetment!!

Spikes order is set as buy limit @ 35.00 for now. So he has shown his intent to enter at a lower price. I simply put his order in my data base and will trigger @ 35.00....

[Runner]

You can manage your position as you see fit. You can move your stop up, but 7% is the max allowed. You don’t have to risk 7% if you desire not to. As you add more shares I’ll track your new order and sell at your request. If I mess up let me know.

I’ll try to post the position(s) update once a week. If order is put in I’ll attempt to post order buy/sell same day. Just a reminder this is not a day trading exercise…..

[skiracer]

Runner,
If I were to buy the stock at todays closing price could I hedge my long position with a put option at the same time? I know you said no short positions but was just asking whether that would be a viable option, no pun intended, to protect a position.

[Runner]

Runner,
If I were to buy the stock at todays closing price could I hedge my long position with a put option at the same time? I know you said no short positions but was just asking whether that would be a viable option, no pun intended, to protect a position.

Ski, I’m not sure how to track it? I’m thinking things could get difficult to control. I understand this takes away from real world, but I’d prefer to keep it as simple as possible for now.

[skiracer]

no problemo.

[Runner]

Here is a daily chart of HD:



Weekly:

[Runner]

Recovery after drawdowns

5% gain to recover 5.3%
10% 11.1
15% 17.6
20% 25
25% 33
30% 42.9
40% 66.7
50% 100

[Runner]

SCIFOS:

[Runner]

Well based on Scifos’s port I think he might be using a equal units model. He took his 500K and put almost ½ on the line with a risk of 35K. This 35K would be his total risk if he continued to use the 7% stop as the most amount of drawl down. Current position of 5006 shares would give a 13,916.68 drawl down. He could have about 2.5 drawdowns before he would reach his 35K limit.

I also have reason the believe Spike is following the same model. He has broken down the 500K into 5 units or about 100K per unit.

I will discuss 3 different position-sizing models and the 5-½ year results using the 3 models. The results of these three models will open some eyes.