Position Drill

[Runner]

SCIFOS:

[spikefader]

..I also have reason the believe Spike is following the same model. He has broken down the 500K into 5 units or about 100K per unit.

I will discuss 3 different position-sizing models and the 5-½ year results using the 3 models. The results of these three models will open some eyes.

Well actually, I'm not intentionally following any pre-defined model. I'm merely applying some spikorama logic to the game and trying to maximize my upside potential. hehe

My logic is that because of the trading restriction you've put on it (HD only) I want to average into the position as it grows. I'm not (at this stage) setting any restriction that I must only buy a fifth each time (and may well buy 4/5 of a postition in the right circumstances).

I would prefer my first entry to be a good one and profitable before I add. This HD position must "act right" and I'll be trying to use tight stops on the adds as I do them unless I get lucky with some fast profits up front and can afford looser ones. My intention is to build a full position as it grows and avoid dollar cost averaging as it falls, which many people like to do.

I may have a great first entry, and price acts in such a way that I can add larger chunks at really smart locations in order to limit the downside risk, and maximize profit-making potential. That would be nice But in reality I may have series of yuck entries that frustrate in which case I'll just grin and endure it and keep on keeping on. Bottom line is that even though I've got plenty of cash, I want to LIMIT my behavior for entries and stops, and targets if I get so lucky

So to sum up, I will pretty much be trying to follow a TA-based system for entries, with discretion-based allocation. Sizing that will be dictated purely by the degree of success of the entire position, and the nature of price action for my entries. And it would take pages to cover all the possible outcomes. So many variables, not enough time. But the bottom line is I want to be MAKING money with the position, and not exposing myself to risk as I sink into quicksand.

And this week we have a weekly channel turn up after a channel long back in September. There is also a channel turn up on the daily at today's close. I think it's worth chasing this channel turn up considering the broader market bullishness, so I elect to step up now and buy 1/5th position at limit price of 41.36 on Monday, and another 1/5th position at Monday's intraday pivot limit price of 41.13. Immediate stop loss on both positions at 39.50.

Good luck folks.

[Runner]

Very interesting approach here Spike. I have a real position in from 40.26 using a random entry off huge volume spike back on 10/19/05. This chart shows my stops and how I’ve adjusted them using a Volatility stop @ X 3. I was planning on possibly adding to position but will wait until trade moves more in my favor. My current stop of 39.43 will stay and the other stops are no longer a consideration. This stock reports earnings on the 15th.

I have your orders in place and will post Monday after the close!

[Runner]

Another stock has been added to this drill. The Stock Tic is C. same rules apply and now your 500K can be used for HD and C.

[Runner]

SPIKE:

[Runner]

C

[spikefader]

SPIKE:

LOL can you believe it; I was off by a penny for the Pivot price calculation. The pivot turned out to be 41.14, not 41.13 and today's low was 41.14!! argh! haha OK, raise my bid up to 41.14 and maybe it'll fill tomorrow. Same stop orders.

[Runner]

Ok Spike I’ll raise ya one penny on the limit to buy 2,431 shares @ 41.14. I noticed the penny miss also. Close but no cigar..haha

[Lyehopper]

Good thread....

I hope to learn from watching this unfold.

[spikefader]

Ok Spike I’ll raise ya one penny on the limit to buy 2,431 shares @ 41.14. I noticed the penny miss also. Close but no cigar..haha

Gap down today should have filled the 2nd position.
Change of game plan now considering the gap down triple top pattern.

So new orders. Stop limit tightened up to 40.43, target S1 now resistance at 41.24. So it's either out break even or -2% on the combined. That's as much risk I'll give this triple top.

[Runner]

SPIKE:

[Runner]

Well Spike no trigger out today. As you would say I’m a sleeping bull on HD for right now. I ike the fact that it thus far has held the 40.54 area. It is just mimicking the tone of the sideways action happening in the Indices. It does have some resistance to move through, but for now I remain bull. My stop on my partial position is still 39.43.

[Runner]

Oh took small position in C off the down trend line pop. Thus far it is working as I noticed that money center banks appear to have drawn some interest.

[spikefader]

OK, no prob. I take it you're using RT hours only and not premarket?

[Runner]

Spike,
If in real world you would have bailed in the Pre-Market then by all means your position is closed. I can do that. So great job Spike with your capital protection and you are now 100% in cash.