Billyjoes Top 10 Cheap Stocks

[billyjoe]

Week 5 Thursday

MOSS and MED were stopped as predicted. Cash values : MOSS $101,473 MED $95,926. We've got 3 winners remaining : TLF +6.17%, NUAN +6.31%, and ENG +14.83%.

We put the $101,473 from MOSS into TLF today and we will decide tomorrow where to put the MED $95,926.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Wednesday PRFT stopped remaining cash $95026. We now have a cash position of $471,340. We are reinvesting into equal amounts of $157,113 into our 3 best NUAN 6.71, TLF 5.47, and ENG 7.2005. Our 2 other positions MOSS MED are close to being stopped.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Week 5 Cheap Stock Portfolio

Stopped today

RWC - $95,383

MESA- $93,955

LPSN- $93,976

HOM- yesterday $93,000

We've got 6 stocks left MOSS, NUAN, TLF, PRFT, MED, and ENG. Will reinvest money tomorrow at least an hour after market open if anything is looking good. Our 3 top candidates for getting the cash are MOSS +2.3% NUAN +5.7% and ENG +7.8%. Our cash position is $376,314. Stops tomorrow 5%.

billyjoe

Runner,
In this experimental portfolio I'm buying equal amounts ($100,000) of each stock at the beginning of the week and liquidating everything at the end of the week regardless of what the stock does. My maximum loss on any one position is 7% of 10% or .07% on each position. That is only if the 7% stop is hit on Monday as it was today with HOM. The stops are then tightened to 6,5,4, and 2% the remaining days of the week.

billyjoe

10-4 I got it!

[billyjoe]

Week 5 Cheap Stock Portfolio

HOM 5.67 stopped at 5.27 for 7% loss funds remaining $93,000

NUAN 6.18 close 6.76

MOSS 5.43 close 5.65

RWC 8.23 close 8.30

TLF 5.35 close 5.31

PRFT 9.45 close 9.44

MED 5.40 close 5.51

ENG 6.54 close 6.68

MESA 9.76 close 9.43

LPSN 4.98 close 4.84

5 advanced 5 declined

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Runner,
In this experimental portfolio I'm buying equal amounts ($100,000) of each stock at the beginning of the week and liquidating everything at the end of the week regardless of what the stock does. My maximum loss on any one position is 7% of 10% or .07% on each position. That is only if the 7% stop is hit on Monday as it was today with HOM. The stops are then tightened to 6,5,4, and 2% the remaining days of the week.

billyjoe

Another thing to realize is your total risk is 1%. Even though the initial investment seems like a lot of money your only risking 1% of your money to make you money. Many people think they have it all on the line and to a certain degree they do. But you exit your position at the point you planned and you allow wiggle room from the daily noise. This model may give you some huge returns. It is a volatility risk model and results can be staggering. In Tharp’s book he talks about this model and shows some example of data. It blew the doors off other models.

Here is a major advantage of this model.

It allows both small and large accounts to grow steadily. It equalizes performance in a portfolio by volatility. It can equalize trades when using tight stops without putting on large positions. THE AMOUNT RISKED IS NOT THE ACTUAL RISK.

Volatility position sizing has some awesome features for controlling exposure. FEW TRADERS use it. Yet it is one of the more sophisticated models available.

Billyjoe, I’ve attached an example of using the 1% risk model to your picks

Current Balance in account $973,777

1% per position is risk of total port. $9,737.77

HOM 9,737.77/ATR(14)x2=15,215 shares initial stop @ 5.04

This will limit exposure and purchase amount of shares based on the 1% rule. Now if you get stopped out at 5.04 your loss of total capital is 1%. Unless nasty gap down. ON a percentage bases your looking at about 11% loss but your total port amount loss is only 1% or about 9,737.77 amounts risked. You can see your giving these boys run to bounce around and not sure if this is your intent or not. I just wanted to use this as an example to give you other things to think about.. Now you can also use what even risk model you like. You can even drop to .5% of total capital since you have a large account. Market conditions could maybe allow you to go as high as 2%. I would not go above 2% on any position.

[billyjoe]

DMK,
ANAD has many good points, but it also has weaknesses that keep it off the list. ROE , sales , earnings haven't been very impressive. Appearing near the top of my screens in the most categories is how stocks get on the list. Even one bad screen can keep a stock off the list when it is compared to 3-4 other stocks that for example have a positive ROE.


billyjoe

[dmk112]

How about ANAD?

[billyjoe]

Week 5 Cheap Stock Portfolio

HOM--5.68 Restores homes after wind , water damage

NUAN--6.77 Speech recognition software

MOSS--5.44 Designs licenses clothes for target stores

RWC---7.98 Wireless 2 way mobile radios

TLF---5.44 Retail and wholesale leather goods

PRFT-- 9.55 Information technology central U.S. states

MED---5.39 Manufactures health and diet products

ENG---6.51 Electrical power systems for petroleum refining

MESA--9.80 Holding company for regional airlines in 43 states

LPSN---4.99 Online customer sales and support

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Week 4 Cheap Stock Portfolio Hold and Fold Method

Stocks, End Week Value, %loss/gain

HOM----$98,000---- -2%

GROW---$100,340---+.34%

MOSS---$91,000---- -9%

MED---- $95,929---- -4.1%

SPIL-----$97,603---- -2.4%

RWC-----$100,676--- +.67%

LPSN-----$94,766---- -5.2%

APLX-----$99,431----- -.57%

TLF------$95,893------ -4.1%

CYBS-----$100,139----- +.14%

Grand Total $973,777 loss of 2.7% after brokerage fees

Actually beat the reinvest method this week because of so little upward movement.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

APLX stopped cash value $99,431 . CYBS sold cash value $100,139 total cash for week $968,998 or loss for the week of 3.1% . 9 of 10 stopped. Nothing went up more than .7% . We couldn't reinvest in falling stocks. More later.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Friday Week 4 Cheap Stock Portfolio

HOM stopped at 2% remaining funds $98,000. Total cash from 8 closed positions $769,438 . We have 2 open positions APLX and CYBS that aren't moving.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Stops on Friday are always 2% of original purchase price unless it has advanced during the week. HOM Monday opened at 5.84 today closed at 5.76 and stop is 5.72. Stops during the week are 7,6,5, 4 and 2%. In cases where we have a winner or 2 up over 5% before Friday I'd sell a stock such as HOM to use the cash to reinvest even if it hasn't been stopped. I call it a sell due to non- performance. It can come back next week and be the big winner or Superstock as Spike calls it. On paper I messed up this week when MOSS was down, but not enough to be stopped . I calculated the stop from it's morning open . Then when it was stopped it cost me 9,000 when the max loss for any stock should have only been 7,000 and on a Wednesday it should have been a max loss of 5,000 or 5%.

billyjoe