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There’s no secret to the fact that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ loves women. Short women..tall women…smart women…less-than-intelligent women. Blondes, brunettes and redheads. It’s all good. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is omnipresent, and my powers of observation go beyond the financial markets. Having said that, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is off the market when it comes to the spectrum of selection of women. I have no intention of discovering what a frying pan smashed across my skull actually sounds like. However for those of you who still are in the business of seeking, I’m sure you’ll want all the best for all women. That’s why I really am interested in a company whose goal is to help women, and make money doing so. This way we’re all happy. If women are not happy, men will not be happy. This is a fact.
Today I bought stock in Hologic Inc (HOLX) at 68.36. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 78.71. Here’s why I like HOLX:
Hologic is a leading developer, manufacturer and supplier of premium diagnostic and medical imaging systems dedicated to serving the healthcare needs of women, and a leading developer of innovative imaging technology for digital radiography and breast imaging. Hologic's core business units are focused on osteoporosis assessment, breast cancer detection, direct capture x-ray detectors for medical imaging and mini C-arm imaging for orthopedic applications.
HOLX stock is up over 200%. Sure it’s PE is high..54 ish, but look at its relentless climb:
It’s r^2 coefficient for the last 12 months is 0.87 and for the last 6 months it is .91. This is a remarkably high correlation coefficient for a stock with a PE of 54. Most of the time, high PE stocks are very speculative, therefore the stock price experiences a lot of volatility. Not so with HOLX. What you see in HOLX’s chart is basically a daily tug of war between bulls and bears and, on a very consistent result, the bulls win. When I get into its earnings, you’ll see that there is a basis for this price momentum and that its share price is still reasonable.
What do these guys do?
Let me ask you this. Do you listen to albums anymore or CD’s. Do you watch videotape or DVD’s? Do you take pictures with a Polaroid or a digital camera?The era of the digital breast imaging suite is here. Going digital can extend your reach, conserve time, and improve care. Hologic has transitioned to the era of digital mammography with Selenia FFDM and workflow solutions. The total breast imaging suite demands the best possible image, and the most flexible interactive tools for the technologist to organize the work stream efficiently, to get the images where they need to be, and to work sensitively and effectively with patients.
• Selenia uses selenium based direct capture technology. This eliminates light diffusion completely for perfect clarity and exquisite image quality.
• Selenia features the largest detector available today, imaging almost any breast without requiring multiple exposures.
• The Selenia acquisition workstation features a thoughtful user interface, and intuitive display screens gives the technicial more time to focus on the patient.
• Every Selenia image viewed is enhanced with intelligent processing.
"The image quality of Selenia is superb. I can see abnormalities much more clearly. And Selenia FFDM allows the radiologists more options for every image"
- Medical Director
"With analog, you look at a piece of film, and that's it. That's all you get. With digital, you can manipulate the image contrast, brightness, and magnification levels to better see abnormalities. And with digital, we can easily transmit an image to another facility."
- Mammographer
"I would never go back to analog. Digital is fantastic... and Selenia is the best I have seen."
- Mammographer
The power of digital imaging creates new possibilities for technologies that could enable medical professionals to see cancers earlier than ever before. Hologic is leading the way in the search for new ways to detect breast cancer.
Breast tomosynthesis takes a series of low dose exposures that are mathematically processed into a series of one millimeter slices, that show the tissue structure in three dimensions. The spatial ambiguity goes away and it becomes possible to see where a given feature really is. Early clinical trials suggest that breast tomosynthesis could revolutionize the way we think of mammography. The greater clarity of the resulting image is expected to lead to the achievement of important clinical benefits such as increasing the breast cancer detection rate and decreasing the number of false positives that result in unnecessary and emotionally stressful call backs for additional examinations. In addition, because tomosynthesis reduces the confusion caused by images of overlapping tissue in the breast, it may be possible to significantly reduce the amount of compression now used for mammography.
Think of the magnitude of this from an earnings perspective. Every woman on this planet should have some form of breast cancer screening scheduled for their overall health care program. Once physicians start using the HOLX product, other physicians are going to have a hard time keeping up with them if they aren’t using this digital technology. Pretty soon, EVERYONE in this medical field will be using the HOLX product. Why? Because they have to. Why would any patient go for a medical test that is less certain than the HOLX offering?
Think I’m full of crap? Read this:
“There is no doubt digital mammography allows you to be more efficient in terms of patient throughput, and that is why we are looking at switching soon to a complete digital environment.”
Alan Semine, MD,
Newton-Wellesley Medical Center
You sees? You sees?
“Our goal has been to reduce the time that a patient has to wait for a screening appointment, and these digital units have helped us accomplish this.”
Monte Clinton, CRA,
Director of Radiology,
Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center
Look look look….can’t lose! CAN’T LOSE!
The radiologists, as well as the technologists, now overwhelmingly prefer the digital system.”
Cindy Ellingson, CRA,
Director of Radiology,
St. Joseph Outpatient Center
Think Cindy will be all faceful that I quoted her on my website?
Hologic products are organized into four groups: Osteoporosis Assessment, Breast Imaging, Direct Ray Digital Imaging, C-arm Imaging. All four business units are on the forefront of technology. Their business is women’s health. HOLX is a company of individuals from varying backgrounds who share a common goal – the desire to extend women’s lives through the development of technologically superior diagnostic imaging systems that will facilitate the early detection of breast cancer and osteoporosis.
Each year, more than one million women are diagnosed with breast cancer, while hundreds of thousands of them fall victim to this dreaded disease. In addition, osteoporosis affects more than 200 million women worldwide. The rising number of osteoporotic fractures and their associated morbidity place an increasingly heavy burden on future healthcare resources, as it is estimated that the annual cost of managing osteoporosis will be more than $15 billion.
Hologic has achieved a leading market position in breast cancer and osteoporosis detection in the United States. The fastest growing market opportunity is in the breast cancer detection segment. HOLX products are known within the industry for superior image quality and technological innovation. Digital mammography comprises only about 8% of the installed base within the global mammography market. The total mammography market is generating growth in the number of procedures performed of about 15%, and expect that the digital category can expand more than 20% as the market continues to convert to this new platform.
HOLX ended fiscal 2004 on a high note. In the fourth quarter, they achieved record revenues of $63.9 million, record earnings of $5.2 million, record cash flow of over $11 million, and record shipments of 44 Selenia digital mammography systems. We also ended the year with a record backlog of $61 million, including orders for 88 Selenia systems.
For the year, revenues increased to $228.7 million, compared to $204 million in fiscal 2003. Net income increased to $12.2 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, compared to net income of $2.9 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, for fiscal 2003.
The market for full-field digital mammography grew substantially in 2004, and the Selenia system enjoyed double-digit market share gains due to the broader acceptance of the technology. With the Selenia system and the DirectRay direct-to-digital detector, the technology now exists to provide improved image quality, faster throughput and benefit from the higher reimbursement. These growth drivers will help accelerate the conversion from analog film-based mammography to digital mammography systems. There are more than 30,000 analog systems worldwide, making this a large and untapped market.
Leading industry sources estimate that the worldwide mammography imaging equipment market will be greater than $300 million in 2004, and anticipate it may grow to over $600 million by 2008. This market growth is being fueled primarily by the rapidly emerging segment of digital mammography, offset only partially by a decline in more conventional film-based technologies. These sources estimate that the U.S. market for digital mammography may grow to over $400 million by 2008 from its introduction only three years ago. International markets are expected to experience similar growth trends. In addition to speed and convenience, digital technology is expected to provide improved image quality over conventional films – ultimately leading to earlier
detection.
While digital mammography systems are presently several times more expensive than conventional systems, we believe they can provide long-term savings as they eliminate the recurring film and processing costs (gee where have we seen this before?), reduce the cost of image storage (gee where have we seen THIS before?), and have the potential to increase patient throughput. Digital mammography systems can save money in the long run. By transmitting the digital images directly to a computer for processing, the wait for film X-ray development is eliminated. Patients can get results while they wait, in as little as ten minutes. That means clinics can double their number of appointments.
Osteoporosis Assessment Products Overview
Bone densitometry is the precise measurement of bone density to assist in the diagnosis and monitoring of osteoporosis and other metabolic bone diseases that can lead to debilitating bone fractures, often of the spine and hip. In October 2004 the U.S. Surgeon General published a comprehensive report on Bone Health and Osteoporosis, highlighting the fact that osteoporosis, fractures, and other chronic diseases no longer should be considered an inevitable result of aging.
According to the report, an estimated 10 million Americans over age 50 have osteoporosis (the most common bone disease), while another 34 million are at risk. Of the ten million Americans estimated to have osteoporosis, eight million are women and two million are men. The report estimated that 1.5 million people suffer an osteoporotic-related fracture every year, an event that often leads to a downward spiral in physical and mental health. According to the National Osteoporosis Foundation, 20 percent of senior citizens who suffer a hip fracture die within one year, and one out of every two women and one out of every four men over 50 will have an osteoporosis-related fracture in their lifetime, with risk of fracture increasing with age.
Due primarily to the aging of the population and the previous lack of focus on bone health, healthcare experts estimate that the number of hip fractures in the United States could double or even triple by the year 2020. As a result, more women than ever are seeking assessment for osteoporosis. The demand for our bone densitometry systems will continue to be driven by an increase in the number of available therapies to treat osteoporosis, the increase in the at-risk population, and broader reimbursement coverage for bone density testing. HOLX’s patented dual-energy x-ray technology remains a leading bone densitometry assessment tool, offering superior, cost-effective accuracy and reliability.
The company's osteoporosis assessment products include a family of bone densitometers and the Sahara Clinical Bone Sonometer, a low-cost ultrasound device that assesses the bone density of the heel. HOLX's patented dual-energy X-ray technology remains a leading bone density assessment tool. The core Delphi product line incorporates a patented fan beam imaging technology and Instant Vertebral Assessment technology that let physicians simultaneously measure bone density and visually assess vertebral status. In December 2002, the company introduced its next generation product, the Discovery QDR Series, which reduces bone density scan times by 67%, providing bone density and vertebral imaging scans in only 10 seconds. In October 2003, the Explorer QDR Series bone densitometer was introduced, providing the company with entry into a lower cost X-ray bone densitometer market.
Ok…we spent enough time discussing the altruistic aspects of this company. Now I can focus on making money. Why will the stock price continue to climb?
The New England Journal of Medicine published a report saying that digital mammograms are better at detecting breast cancer than traditional film mammograms in certain populations. While the diagnostic accuracy of digital and film mammography was similar in the fully verified group, the Journal said, "The performance of digital mammography was, however, significantly better than that of film mammography among women under the age of 50 years, as compared with those who were at least 50 years of age." The Journal of Medicine also said that digital mammography was better for women classified by the readers as having heterogeneously dense or extremely dense breasts and premenopausal or perimenopausal women.
Hologic, commenting on the study, said "The most promising finding involved a subcategory of women incuding women under 50, women with dense breasts and premenopausal or perimenopausal women, which represented 65% of the study population, digital mammography had statistically greater diagnostic accuracy than film-based systems." Hologic, which develops digital imaging technology for general radiography and mammography applications, said the findings "will further promote the use of digital mammography and help provide women with more options for high quality breast imaging."
The recent release of clinical data showing improved detection of breast cancer using digital mammography in a significant subset of women, relative to traditional film, will further accelerate clinical adoption of the technology. HOLX is the only investment resembling a "pure play" in the digital mammography segment, which makes it an attractive acquisition candidate during the next few years. HOLX anticipates shipping, and recording as revenue, 237 Selenia systems in FY 05, up from 143 in FY 04. Assuming similar growth in FY 06, HOLX should sell 320-340 Selenias. Today only 8% of the 10,000 breast-cancer screening centers in the U.S. use digital systems.
The most recent quarterly earnings report reflected this good news.
Fourth quarter fiscal 2005 revenues totaled $78,217,000, a 22% increase when compared to revenues of $63,949,000 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005, Hologic reported net income of $9,476,000, or $0.41 per diluted share, compared with net income of $5,210,000, or $0.24 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004. The improvement in quarterly earnings primarily reflects the increase in product sales of Selenia digital mammography systems in the current quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004.
For the year ended September 24, 2005, revenues totaled $287,684,000, compared to revenues of $228,705,000 for the year ended September 25, 2004. For the year ended September 24, 2005, Hologic reported net income of $28,256,000, or $1.25 per diluted share, compared with net income of $12,164,000 or $0.57 per diluted share, for fiscal 2004.
At September 24, 2005, the Company's backlog for orders of Selenia was 185 systems and total backlog for all products increased to $102 million, the highest quarterly backlog in the Company's history and a 10% increase over the backlog at June 25, 2005.
With a Beta of 2.38, HOLX will really react to any help from the overall market. ANAL-ysts have pegged FY 06 revenue at $333 million with earnings of $1.17. Permit me to do my favorite Jim Carrey laugh “akk akkk akkk akkk akkkk”. What are you guys stoned? Are you on heroin? Just look at the growth rate over the last 3 years. In this field, it’s “me too” and follow the leader. Growth does not decelerate, it accelerates! For fiscal year 2006, HOLX will post revenues of $361 million which will allow it to pocket earnings of $1.86/share. At today’s PE of 54, this projects to a share price of $100.44, which is well past my sell price.
It seems like HOLX’s management agrees with me. Shareholders approved an amendment enabling the company to increase the quantity of common shares it can issue to 90 million from 30 million. As a result of the amendment, Hologic's previously announced 2-for-1 stock split - in the form of a stock dividend - will be paid on Nov. 30 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 16.
Here’s what the boss thinks that I have to look forward to:
"We are very pleased to report record revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005, in addition to full year revenue growth of 26% over fiscal 2004," said Jack Cumming, Chairman and CEO. "Our sales growth reflects the continued demand for Selenia, our leading-edge digital mammography system. Along with increasing sales, our success in controlling costs and improving internal efficiencies resulted in solid gains in profitability. We believe we are well positioned for fiscal 2006, as we expect to continue to grow our revenue pipeline by focusing on expanding our product offerings as well as our relationships with existing customers and winning new business in our core markets."
Dude, everytime I use my DVD player, my digital camera, my Ipod and my CD player, I’ll think about HOLX selling another Selenia.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
Today I bought stock in Hologic Inc (HOLX) at 68.36. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 78.71. Here’s why I like HOLX:
Hologic is a leading developer, manufacturer and supplier of premium diagnostic and medical imaging systems dedicated to serving the healthcare needs of women, and a leading developer of innovative imaging technology for digital radiography and breast imaging. Hologic's core business units are focused on osteoporosis assessment, breast cancer detection, direct capture x-ray detectors for medical imaging and mini C-arm imaging for orthopedic applications.
HOLX stock is up over 200%. Sure it’s PE is high..54 ish, but look at its relentless climb:
It’s r^2 coefficient for the last 12 months is 0.87 and for the last 6 months it is .91. This is a remarkably high correlation coefficient for a stock with a PE of 54. Most of the time, high PE stocks are very speculative, therefore the stock price experiences a lot of volatility. Not so with HOLX. What you see in HOLX’s chart is basically a daily tug of war between bulls and bears and, on a very consistent result, the bulls win. When I get into its earnings, you’ll see that there is a basis for this price momentum and that its share price is still reasonable.
What do these guys do?
Let me ask you this. Do you listen to albums anymore or CD’s. Do you watch videotape or DVD’s? Do you take pictures with a Polaroid or a digital camera?The era of the digital breast imaging suite is here. Going digital can extend your reach, conserve time, and improve care. Hologic has transitioned to the era of digital mammography with Selenia FFDM and workflow solutions. The total breast imaging suite demands the best possible image, and the most flexible interactive tools for the technologist to organize the work stream efficiently, to get the images where they need to be, and to work sensitively and effectively with patients.
• Selenia uses selenium based direct capture technology. This eliminates light diffusion completely for perfect clarity and exquisite image quality.
• Selenia features the largest detector available today, imaging almost any breast without requiring multiple exposures.
• The Selenia acquisition workstation features a thoughtful user interface, and intuitive display screens gives the technicial more time to focus on the patient.
• Every Selenia image viewed is enhanced with intelligent processing.
"The image quality of Selenia is superb. I can see abnormalities much more clearly. And Selenia FFDM allows the radiologists more options for every image"
- Medical Director
"With analog, you look at a piece of film, and that's it. That's all you get. With digital, you can manipulate the image contrast, brightness, and magnification levels to better see abnormalities. And with digital, we can easily transmit an image to another facility."
- Mammographer
"I would never go back to analog. Digital is fantastic... and Selenia is the best I have seen."
- Mammographer
The power of digital imaging creates new possibilities for technologies that could enable medical professionals to see cancers earlier than ever before. Hologic is leading the way in the search for new ways to detect breast cancer.
Breast tomosynthesis takes a series of low dose exposures that are mathematically processed into a series of one millimeter slices, that show the tissue structure in three dimensions. The spatial ambiguity goes away and it becomes possible to see where a given feature really is. Early clinical trials suggest that breast tomosynthesis could revolutionize the way we think of mammography. The greater clarity of the resulting image is expected to lead to the achievement of important clinical benefits such as increasing the breast cancer detection rate and decreasing the number of false positives that result in unnecessary and emotionally stressful call backs for additional examinations. In addition, because tomosynthesis reduces the confusion caused by images of overlapping tissue in the breast, it may be possible to significantly reduce the amount of compression now used for mammography.
Think of the magnitude of this from an earnings perspective. Every woman on this planet should have some form of breast cancer screening scheduled for their overall health care program. Once physicians start using the HOLX product, other physicians are going to have a hard time keeping up with them if they aren’t using this digital technology. Pretty soon, EVERYONE in this medical field will be using the HOLX product. Why? Because they have to. Why would any patient go for a medical test that is less certain than the HOLX offering?
Think I’m full of crap? Read this:
“There is no doubt digital mammography allows you to be more efficient in terms of patient throughput, and that is why we are looking at switching soon to a complete digital environment.”
Alan Semine, MD,
Newton-Wellesley Medical Center
You sees? You sees?
“Our goal has been to reduce the time that a patient has to wait for a screening appointment, and these digital units have helped us accomplish this.”
Monte Clinton, CRA,
Director of Radiology,
Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center
Look look look….can’t lose! CAN’T LOSE!
The radiologists, as well as the technologists, now overwhelmingly prefer the digital system.”
Cindy Ellingson, CRA,
Director of Radiology,
St. Joseph Outpatient Center
Think Cindy will be all faceful that I quoted her on my website?
Hologic products are organized into four groups: Osteoporosis Assessment, Breast Imaging, Direct Ray Digital Imaging, C-arm Imaging. All four business units are on the forefront of technology. Their business is women’s health. HOLX is a company of individuals from varying backgrounds who share a common goal – the desire to extend women’s lives through the development of technologically superior diagnostic imaging systems that will facilitate the early detection of breast cancer and osteoporosis.
Each year, more than one million women are diagnosed with breast cancer, while hundreds of thousands of them fall victim to this dreaded disease. In addition, osteoporosis affects more than 200 million women worldwide. The rising number of osteoporotic fractures and their associated morbidity place an increasingly heavy burden on future healthcare resources, as it is estimated that the annual cost of managing osteoporosis will be more than $15 billion.
Hologic has achieved a leading market position in breast cancer and osteoporosis detection in the United States. The fastest growing market opportunity is in the breast cancer detection segment. HOLX products are known within the industry for superior image quality and technological innovation. Digital mammography comprises only about 8% of the installed base within the global mammography market. The total mammography market is generating growth in the number of procedures performed of about 15%, and expect that the digital category can expand more than 20% as the market continues to convert to this new platform.
HOLX ended fiscal 2004 on a high note. In the fourth quarter, they achieved record revenues of $63.9 million, record earnings of $5.2 million, record cash flow of over $11 million, and record shipments of 44 Selenia digital mammography systems. We also ended the year with a record backlog of $61 million, including orders for 88 Selenia systems.
For the year, revenues increased to $228.7 million, compared to $204 million in fiscal 2003. Net income increased to $12.2 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, compared to net income of $2.9 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, for fiscal 2003.
The market for full-field digital mammography grew substantially in 2004, and the Selenia system enjoyed double-digit market share gains due to the broader acceptance of the technology. With the Selenia system and the DirectRay direct-to-digital detector, the technology now exists to provide improved image quality, faster throughput and benefit from the higher reimbursement. These growth drivers will help accelerate the conversion from analog film-based mammography to digital mammography systems. There are more than 30,000 analog systems worldwide, making this a large and untapped market.
Leading industry sources estimate that the worldwide mammography imaging equipment market will be greater than $300 million in 2004, and anticipate it may grow to over $600 million by 2008. This market growth is being fueled primarily by the rapidly emerging segment of digital mammography, offset only partially by a decline in more conventional film-based technologies. These sources estimate that the U.S. market for digital mammography may grow to over $400 million by 2008 from its introduction only three years ago. International markets are expected to experience similar growth trends. In addition to speed and convenience, digital technology is expected to provide improved image quality over conventional films – ultimately leading to earlier
detection.
While digital mammography systems are presently several times more expensive than conventional systems, we believe they can provide long-term savings as they eliminate the recurring film and processing costs (gee where have we seen this before?), reduce the cost of image storage (gee where have we seen THIS before?), and have the potential to increase patient throughput. Digital mammography systems can save money in the long run. By transmitting the digital images directly to a computer for processing, the wait for film X-ray development is eliminated. Patients can get results while they wait, in as little as ten minutes. That means clinics can double their number of appointments.
Osteoporosis Assessment Products Overview
Bone densitometry is the precise measurement of bone density to assist in the diagnosis and monitoring of osteoporosis and other metabolic bone diseases that can lead to debilitating bone fractures, often of the spine and hip. In October 2004 the U.S. Surgeon General published a comprehensive report on Bone Health and Osteoporosis, highlighting the fact that osteoporosis, fractures, and other chronic diseases no longer should be considered an inevitable result of aging.
According to the report, an estimated 10 million Americans over age 50 have osteoporosis (the most common bone disease), while another 34 million are at risk. Of the ten million Americans estimated to have osteoporosis, eight million are women and two million are men. The report estimated that 1.5 million people suffer an osteoporotic-related fracture every year, an event that often leads to a downward spiral in physical and mental health. According to the National Osteoporosis Foundation, 20 percent of senior citizens who suffer a hip fracture die within one year, and one out of every two women and one out of every four men over 50 will have an osteoporosis-related fracture in their lifetime, with risk of fracture increasing with age.
Due primarily to the aging of the population and the previous lack of focus on bone health, healthcare experts estimate that the number of hip fractures in the United States could double or even triple by the year 2020. As a result, more women than ever are seeking assessment for osteoporosis. The demand for our bone densitometry systems will continue to be driven by an increase in the number of available therapies to treat osteoporosis, the increase in the at-risk population, and broader reimbursement coverage for bone density testing. HOLX’s patented dual-energy x-ray technology remains a leading bone densitometry assessment tool, offering superior, cost-effective accuracy and reliability.
The company's osteoporosis assessment products include a family of bone densitometers and the Sahara Clinical Bone Sonometer, a low-cost ultrasound device that assesses the bone density of the heel. HOLX's patented dual-energy X-ray technology remains a leading bone density assessment tool. The core Delphi product line incorporates a patented fan beam imaging technology and Instant Vertebral Assessment technology that let physicians simultaneously measure bone density and visually assess vertebral status. In December 2002, the company introduced its next generation product, the Discovery QDR Series, which reduces bone density scan times by 67%, providing bone density and vertebral imaging scans in only 10 seconds. In October 2003, the Explorer QDR Series bone densitometer was introduced, providing the company with entry into a lower cost X-ray bone densitometer market.
Ok…we spent enough time discussing the altruistic aspects of this company. Now I can focus on making money. Why will the stock price continue to climb?
The New England Journal of Medicine published a report saying that digital mammograms are better at detecting breast cancer than traditional film mammograms in certain populations. While the diagnostic accuracy of digital and film mammography was similar in the fully verified group, the Journal said, "The performance of digital mammography was, however, significantly better than that of film mammography among women under the age of 50 years, as compared with those who were at least 50 years of age." The Journal of Medicine also said that digital mammography was better for women classified by the readers as having heterogeneously dense or extremely dense breasts and premenopausal or perimenopausal women.
Hologic, commenting on the study, said "The most promising finding involved a subcategory of women incuding women under 50, women with dense breasts and premenopausal or perimenopausal women, which represented 65% of the study population, digital mammography had statistically greater diagnostic accuracy than film-based systems." Hologic, which develops digital imaging technology for general radiography and mammography applications, said the findings "will further promote the use of digital mammography and help provide women with more options for high quality breast imaging."
The recent release of clinical data showing improved detection of breast cancer using digital mammography in a significant subset of women, relative to traditional film, will further accelerate clinical adoption of the technology. HOLX is the only investment resembling a "pure play" in the digital mammography segment, which makes it an attractive acquisition candidate during the next few years. HOLX anticipates shipping, and recording as revenue, 237 Selenia systems in FY 05, up from 143 in FY 04. Assuming similar growth in FY 06, HOLX should sell 320-340 Selenias. Today only 8% of the 10,000 breast-cancer screening centers in the U.S. use digital systems.
The most recent quarterly earnings report reflected this good news.
Fourth quarter fiscal 2005 revenues totaled $78,217,000, a 22% increase when compared to revenues of $63,949,000 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005, Hologic reported net income of $9,476,000, or $0.41 per diluted share, compared with net income of $5,210,000, or $0.24 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004. The improvement in quarterly earnings primarily reflects the increase in product sales of Selenia digital mammography systems in the current quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004.
For the year ended September 24, 2005, revenues totaled $287,684,000, compared to revenues of $228,705,000 for the year ended September 25, 2004. For the year ended September 24, 2005, Hologic reported net income of $28,256,000, or $1.25 per diluted share, compared with net income of $12,164,000 or $0.57 per diluted share, for fiscal 2004.
At September 24, 2005, the Company's backlog for orders of Selenia was 185 systems and total backlog for all products increased to $102 million, the highest quarterly backlog in the Company's history and a 10% increase over the backlog at June 25, 2005.
With a Beta of 2.38, HOLX will really react to any help from the overall market. ANAL-ysts have pegged FY 06 revenue at $333 million with earnings of $1.17. Permit me to do my favorite Jim Carrey laugh “akk akkk akkk akkk akkkk”. What are you guys stoned? Are you on heroin? Just look at the growth rate over the last 3 years. In this field, it’s “me too” and follow the leader. Growth does not decelerate, it accelerates! For fiscal year 2006, HOLX will post revenues of $361 million which will allow it to pocket earnings of $1.86/share. At today’s PE of 54, this projects to a share price of $100.44, which is well past my sell price.
It seems like HOLX’s management agrees with me. Shareholders approved an amendment enabling the company to increase the quantity of common shares it can issue to 90 million from 30 million. As a result of the amendment, Hologic's previously announced 2-for-1 stock split - in the form of a stock dividend - will be paid on Nov. 30 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 16.
Here’s what the boss thinks that I have to look forward to:
"We are very pleased to report record revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005, in addition to full year revenue growth of 26% over fiscal 2004," said Jack Cumming, Chairman and CEO. "Our sales growth reflects the continued demand for Selenia, our leading-edge digital mammography system. Along with increasing sales, our success in controlling costs and improving internal efficiencies resulted in solid gains in profitability. We believe we are well positioned for fiscal 2006, as we expect to continue to grow our revenue pipeline by focusing on expanding our product offerings as well as our relationships with existing customers and winning new business in our core markets."
Dude, everytime I use my DVD player, my digital camera, my Ipod and my CD player, I’ll think about HOLX selling another Selenia.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
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