Should $$$MR. MARKET$$$ kill the streak?

[New-born baby]

Which one was it?

Still holding....as you know, all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys and sells are posted on this forum and all members are notified by email. Does the IBD forum offer that feature??

MM,
I remember a stock coming within 4 cents of your sell price, and then pulling back. I can't remember which stock that was. Do you still own that one?

[IIC]

Still holding....as you know, all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys and sells are posted on this forum and all members are notified by email. Does the IBD forum offer that feature??

No...but they tell you which stocks you should have bot or sold yesterday ...LOL

[Websman]

Still holding....as you know, all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys and sells are posted on this forum and all members are notified by email. Does the IBD forum offer that feature??

No, but they do ban those of us who tell the truth.

[mrmarket]

MM,
I remember a stock coming within 4 cents of your sell price, and then pulling back. I can't remember which stock that was. Do you still own that one?

TOL hit my target but I missed selling it for some reason. I still own it (and love it for 2006).

[Gatorman]

Still holding....as you know, all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys and sells are posted on this forum and all members are notified by email. Does the IBD forum offer that feature??

Was just hoping that with all the Christmas/New Year rush, it was posted and I missed it.
It would have been nice for you to start 2006 with more bullets in your gun to fire at winners.

[ParkTwain]

I'm afraid that $$MM$$'s home builder stocks (TOL and KBH) will be the ultimate reasons to kill the streak. I don't see how these stocks will recover to reach $$MM$$'s goals with all the macro and cyclical factors arrayed against them going forward through 2006 and beyond.

This is despite my belief that the low wage rates for manufacturing in China and India (which depress prices and therefore counter to some extent the inflationary forces in the not yet booming developed economies) are for the foreseeable future the friend of mortgage buyers in the U.S. The question is whether U.S. GDP growth has reached a pace so strong through most of 2006 that it has engulfed the deflationary effect of the low wages of Chinese workers, and therefore the U.S. Fed Reserve must continue to raise domestic rates to fight inflation. (After all, the Fed's reason for being is to make sure there is always a little inflation in the economy. To fight deflation, the Fed can only lower rates to zero, and amazingly this generation of Americans has seen rates get closer to zero than most imagined was possible.)

A weakening dollar (due to continued trade deficits) should tend to push U.S. domestic interest rates (including mortgages rates) higher than they would otherwise be.

[mrmarket]

I'm afraid that $$MM$$'s home builder stocks (TOL and KBH) will be the ultimate reasons to kill the streak. I don't see how these stocks will recover to reach $$MM$$'s goals with all the macro and cyclical factors arrayed against them going forward through 2006 and beyond.

This is despite my belief that the low wage rates for manufacturing in China and India (which depress prices and therefore counter to some extent the inflationary forces in the not yet booming developed economies) are for the foreseeable future the friend of mortgage buyers in the U.S. The question is whether U.S. GDP growth has reached a pace so strong through most of 2006 that it has engulfed the deflationary effect of the low wages of Chinese workers, and therefore the U.S. Fed Reserve must continue to raise domestic rates to fight inflation. (After all, the Fed's reason for being is to make sure there is always a little inflation in the economy. To fight deflation, the Fed can only lower rates to zero, and amazingly this generation of Americans has seen rates get closer to zero than most imagined was possible.)

A weakening dollar (due to continued trade deficits) should tend to push U.S. domestic interest rates (including mortgages rates) higher than they would otherwise be.

You may be right...but it's really hard for me to sell a stock with a P/E of 5. That's like taking money out of my savings account to put in my checking account. Not a lot of downside in holding.

[DSteckler]

<< Not a lot of downside in holding. >>

$30 of downside, Ernie.

[New-born baby]

<< Not a lot of downside in holding. >>

$30 of downside, Ernie.

Dave,
Do you trade options? Perhaps you could set up for us a bearish call spread on TOL and KBH. Might as well profit from the situation . . . .

[DSteckler]

<< Perhaps you could set up for us a bearish call spread on TOL and KBH. >>

TOL: Sell March 25 call, buy March 35 call for a net credit of $4.60. Max reward is $4.60, max risk is $5.40. The return percentage (reward/risk) = 85.20%

KBH: Sell March 65 call, buy March 75 calls, for a net credit of $3.85. Max reward is $3.85, max risk is $6.15. The return percentage (reward/risk) = 62.60%.

Trading options involves substantial risk. Consult your tax or financial advisor before placing any option trades <g>.

[mrmarket]

<< Not a lot of downside in holding. >>

$30 of downside, Ernie.

So TOL will go to zero?

[Jim Smith]

To kill or not to kill, is really a moot point for me now....I think I understand what you're doing sufficiently to know that the streak is not meaningful to me.....I am not willing to accept ongoing drawdowns, too psychologically damaging and financially damaging. I can't cash in on streaks and % returns are fine for mutual fund prospectuses.....I need cash returns.....I am very happy with a 1% return on a $500,000 trade if I can achieve it in a week or less.

[mrmarket]

To kill or not to kill, is really a moot point for me now....I think I understand what you're doing sufficiently to know that the streak is not meaningful to me.....I am not willing to accept ongoing drawdowns, too psychologically damaging and financially damaging. I can't cash in on streaks and % returns are fine for mutual fund prospectuses.....I need cash returns.....I am very happy with a 1% return on a $500,000 trade if I can achieve it in a week or less.

Jim.... no one on this forum ever told you what to do with your money.

As for "ongoing drawdowns, too psychologically damaging and financially damaging", I have beaten the market each and every year for the last 15 years. In several of those years I beat the market very handily.

There is more than one way to make money and different ways satisy different people's risk tolerances. I think if you can accept that fact, you'll be very happy on this forum.

[gerihearne]

still holding not folding

Still holding....as you know, all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys and sells are posted on this forum and all members are notified by email. Does the IBD forum offer that feature??

I'm a new member and new to the financial world, as you know.
But, I think it's right that you hold. Some of us are in it for the longrun ...
while others have other styles. That's fine for them. But, I like the confidence you place in your choices based on your model. As you said before, no reason to sell a good stock ... unless it hits your mark, of course.
My 2-cents for this day.
________
ufc

[spikefader]

There is more than one way to make money and different ways satisy different people's risk tolerances. I think if you can accept that fact, you'll be very happy on this forum.

Yep, this gets to the crux of the issue. MM, you are truly wise hehehe.

Jim, I understand where you're coming from dude. You seek something specific, as do I. I love tight stops, and limiting the risk. I like impressive r/r ratios and I am happy to search for those perfect entries. I'm a technical trader. MM is the exact opposite, and I can live with that. He brings some awesome data dumps to the table. Many good stocks come out of it.

Bottom line is we all have our differences and the way we trade 'em. And we all enjoy watching the success of the other. I'll be a huuge supporter of your own success, and look forward to reading your stuff. Positive attitudes, positive environment, draw your line in the sand and accept others may vary.