Steckler's Star Studded Stock Picks

[Shadow]

Dave,

Can you give me an opinion on mutual funds switching? What do
you feel are the best indicators for following mutual funds since
they have very different charts?

I have an acct with a choice of 19 “funds” and I would like to
learn to follow them and switch as needed to catch the major
portions of uptrends and try not to ride them all the way down.

Under “professional” advice 20% of this fund has been sitting in
a bond fund that earned less last year than my kid’s did in their
credit union savings account. I understand the risk diversification
but I feel if I am watching the markets closer than the average
person I can avoid some of that risk.

Opinions or book suggestions on mutual fund moves?

Thanks
Shadow

[DSteckler]

Bow tie candidates for next week

MDR


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

Re: Bow tie, was Cooper 1-2-3-4 candidate

Duh...I used a symbol from a different scan.

MDR is a Cooper 1-2-3-4 candidate. There were no bow tie candidates this week.

Cooper candidate are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

[Shadow]

Also, inregards to my previous question, which
ma do you find to be more reliable?

[New-born baby]

Thank you

Duh...I used a symbol from a different scan.

MDR is a Cooper 1-2-3-4 candidate. There were no bow tie candidates this week.

Cooper candidate are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

Dave,
Love your work, man!

[DSteckler]

Shadow:

1) Do you own multiple funds in the same family, e.g., all Vanguard?;

2) Are they different fund families; e.g., some in Vanguard and some in Fidelity?;

3) Is the account a variable annuity?

4) Are they load or no-load funds?

I need your answers in order to better answer your question.

Re: which MA to use. In what context? For example, selling Fund ABC once it crosses below the XXX Moving Average? or did you mean something else?

[DSteckler]

Dave,
Love your work, man!

Thanks, NBB!

[Shadow]

Shadow:

1) Do you own multiple funds in the same family, e.g., all Vanguard?;

2) Are they different fund families; e.g., some in Vanguard and some in Fidelity?;

3) Is the account a variable annuity?

4) Are they load or no-load funds?

I need your answers in order to better answer your question.

Re: which MA to use. In what context? For example, selling Fund ABC once it crosses below the XXX Moving Average? or did you mean something else?

Dave,
They are not all in the same fund family. This is a company sponsored
401 k plan with no load.

Here are the choices to pick from:
__GMO US CORE EQ III new 9/16/05*
__SSGA FLAG 500 INDX A (not a mutual fund) *
__ TRP BLU CHIP *
__FIDELITY LOW PR STK *
__AXA US SMALL CAP (not a mutual fund)
__COLUMBIA ACORN Z *
__AF EUROPACIFIC GTH A
__FIDELITY DIVERSIFIED INTL *
__FIDELITY FREEDOM FUNDS: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040
__PIMCO TOTAL RT INST *
(* = current holdings)

The remaining 2 are money market and company stock (Merck). I am watching
the company stock along with Spike’s (much appreciated help) to try to catch
some short term gains. Please feel free to help with that one too.

The Freedom funds all have low rankings and the GMO fund is below the
S&P 500. Only a few seem to be performing decently and I would like
to learn the best way to track and improve account performance.

I have another account that is all American Funds Family. Eventually,
when I feel more confident with my stock selections I am moving this
one to a brokerage account. Not an option with the first account.

I was questioning ma is regards to buying and selling and any
other indicators recommended for following funds since there
are no volume #'s to track. As you can tell I haven't learned
to track funds very well. I'm working on it!

Thanks for all your help
Shadow

[DSteckler]

Thanks, Shadow. That information helps.

One question you need answered is whether there is a limit as to how many times per year you can make exchanges. Some 401K plans are liberal about this and some are restrictive.

I'm not a big fan of using MAs to determine which mutual fund to own. Let's say you're using a 50DMA crossover - a fund can be above this MA but still lag the market average return.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of financial advisors are either ignorant on how to time funds and/or don't have the time to adequately manage their client's holdings. Also, the mantra in their industry is asset allocation and don't try to time the market because no one can do it successfully over the long run [hah!]

I think a better approach is to look at the relative strength of the different funds in your 401K against a benchmark (say the SP500). The fund or funds with the best RS compared to the benchmark means those funds are probably outperforming - if not outperforming the benchmark, then outperforming the other funds in your 401K.

I don't know of any websites that offer mutual fund RS rankings but I'm sure there's something out there. There is an excellent program you can buy from www.monoclesystems.com that is specifically designed to help time mutual fund buys and sells.

[Shadow]

Thanks, Shadow. That information helps.

One question you need answered is whether there is a limit as to how many times per year you can make exchanges. Some 401K plans are liberal about this and some are restrictive.

I'm not a big fan of using MAs to determine which mutual fund to own. Let's say you're using a 50DMA crossover - a fund can be above this MA but still lag the market average return.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of financial advisors are either ignorant on how to time funds and/or don't have the time to adequately manage their client's holdings. Also, the mantra in their industry is asset allocation and don't try to time the market because no one can do it successfully over the long run [hah!]

I think a better approach is to look at the relative strength of the different funds in your 401K against a benchmark (say the SP500). The fund or funds with the best RS compared to the benchmark means those funds are probably outperforming - if not outperforming the benchmark, then outperforming the other funds in your 401K.

I don't know of any websites that offer mutual fund RS rankings but I'm sure there's something out there. There is an excellent program you can buy from www.monoclesystems.com that is specifically designed to help time mutual fund buys and sells.

Thanks Dave!

I didn't realize that about the mutual fund MA's. I learned
something today.

Yes, I did pay for the priveledge of a mediocre return. I may
end up eating my words but I feel I can time the funds a little
better if I'm reviewing them constantly with the right tools.
Moving all to a money market in a bear market is a least
preserving cap. Why ride down with them?

Morningstar and "you know who" ratings were only of
moderate help. I'll check that web site info out and
the # of trade allowances. Thanks for taking the time.
Shadow

[DSteckler]

4/9 MA crossover within the last 3 days

APC - EPS estimates up 60+% for each of the next two quarters, YOY.

CMCSK - EPS estimates up 167.65% and 344.44% respectively, YOY.

DISCA - same group as above. EPS estimates up 100% for each of the next two quarters, YOY. Very low ADX (got as low as 9.13 two weeks ago; on Friday it was 13.42) and has been bouncing between its 50DMA and 20-day EMA.

ORCT - broke out of a large continuation H&S a few weeks ago. Target objective around 40 but I'm sure it won't do that without backing and filling along the way. Next quarter EPS estimates up 284%.

UARM - bounced off its 20-day EMA last week. EPS estimates up 100% for each of the next two quarters, YOY.

[DSteckler]

UPCS looks interesting

UbiquiTel is the exclusive provider of Sprint digital wireless mobility communications network products and services under the Sprint brand name to midsize markets in the Western and Midwestern United States.

Phenomenal ROE (85%) and estimates for the next two quarters are up 600% and 300% respectively, YOY. ERG = 261. Very tight trading range since 11/22 and it bounced off its 50DMA on Wednesday.

[DSteckler]

A few more for Monday

GLW - bounced strongly off its 20-day EMA on Wednesday. EPS estimates for the next two quarters are up 35.29% and 25% respectively, YOY. ERG is a very high 284 and the %A/D is a very high 61.9%.

LPX - triple top breakout on Friday. Estimates for the upcoming quarter are up 205% over year ago but the following quarter is down 46.24%.

PAL - up on Friday because precious metals are hot. PAL also made a stochastic pop on Friday. Estimates for the upcoming quarter are down 212.50% and I suspect that when metals cool off, so will PAL. The company has lost money in each of the last 4 quarters and is estimated to lose 25 cents/per share in the Dec. quarter.

[DSteckler]

VPHM moving

Breaking out this morning on great volume.

[DSteckler]

BTUI small gap open

Also broke out of the two-week trading range.