Jim's cycle trades

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    Originally posted by Jim Smith
    Another play brought to you by Jim's cycle trades.
    Better late than never jejejeje
    Last edited by spikefader; 06-23-2006, 10:35 AM. Reason: fix link

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    • the last four year cycle

      From the close of the week before the July 4th holiday through the end of july 2002, the S&P lost 21.6%......I am seeing a lot of busted bear flag patterns screaming caution: LM for one.

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      • Irf

        Followed your short rec. on this one. Paying off, thanks. You've been awfully quiet...

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        • SHFL....might buck the trend

          watch for SHFL top possibly test its 50 day ma next week.

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          • Clf

            buy on weakness......damn, damn, damn, I had this on my watch list cuz it was snuggling up to the 30 day ema.....now it's above it on great volume...I am buying weakness as I believe this is a $100 stock in August.

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            • Where's the money going to go?

              The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? Bond prices should continue to suffer. Realestate looks played out with higher rates. We have an excess liquidity issue here. My intuition is that there's a higher floor on this market than the doom and gloomers think. But, I can't advocate indexing. I think you'll find individual stocks that can soar. I would avoid consumer stocks, look what happened to NKE and ANF....Companies are awash in cash so suppliers to companies or countries like China and India are good. ...Just look at CLF. Tech is toast cuz I don't see the next hot thing ala Ipod. But China's oil demand is insatiable. Energy is hot going to get hotter. XOM is awash in cash, watch for acquisitions. I think the main theme is anti consumer pro industrial consumption.

              Comment

              • peanuts
                Senior Member
                • Feb 2006
                • 3365

                you nailed it

                Originally posted by Jim Smith
                The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? Bond prices should continue to suffer. Realestate looks played out with higher rates. We have an excess liquidity issue here. My intuition is that there's a higher floor on this market than the doom and gloomers think. But, I can't advocate indexing. I think you'll find individual stocks that can soar. I would avoid consumer stocks, look what happened to NKE and ANF....Companies are awash in cash so suppliers to companies or countries like China and India are good. ...Just look at CLF. Tech is toast cuz I don't see the next hot thing ala Ipod. But China's oil demand is insatiable. Energy is hot going to get hotter. XOM is awash in cash, watch for acquisitions. I think the main theme is anti consumer pro industrial consumption.
                Jim,

                This is one of your best posts ever. Industrials and the companies that service them are the places to put your money... no matter what Lye tells you, Steel is a good place to be.


                If you stare directly into the sun, you will have severe eye problems for life. If you stare directly at Chuck Norris, it will bring you death.
                Hide not your talents.
                They for use were made.
                What's a sundial in the shade?

                - Benjamin Franklin

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                • CAMH to be covered by Cigna

                  MTWA heart test to be covered by Cigna. Announced 5:57 pm est

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                  • << The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? >>

                    On the sidelines in cash. Money market rates aren't bad for a short-term holding.

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                    • ZUMZ could be a short here

                      Kissing off the 50 day sma again....retail looks iffy except for JCP.....

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                      • ANF and CAMH

                        ANF in meltdown mode


                        CAMH gapping above a three month downtrend on good volume....I think you buy some of this and put it away.....I think this is a 10x winner.


                        Oh, and shorting ZUMZ was a baaaad call on my part....

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                        • Irf, Shfl

                          Thanks for the heads up. Out IRF @ 38.04 in SHFL @ 31.82

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                          • Like a teenage girl at a drive in movie

                            I reserve the right to change my mind......Actually, I've alluded to the idea that this is a liquidity driven market.....Start believing in the devine right of money cuz one of the things I did pick up from my MBA program was a lot of money makes the price of other things go up. Money is the only thing that matters....


                            PS.... I believe IBD will say this was a follow through day validating the bull market.

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                            • Stocks I am watching today

                              ICE: could be a cup and handle with 10 points upside
                              SPSX: I believe this gets back to $35 near term
                              CLF: I want to get back in on a test of the 50 day moving average.
                              BBH: Next sector to run?
                              DNA: A leader
                              CELG: broke out and ready to roll
                              CAMH: Time to build positions
                              OIH: Long and want to get longer
                              GSF: looking for a move to $65 over the next month.

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                              • BBH breaks downtrend

                                no group shall be left behind......it's time to load up

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