Mining the IBD 100, striking gold

[mrmarket]

I drive a 1993 Cadillac STS...it has 173,000 miles on it and still goes really fast.

[IIC]

LOL, I don't know about the commies. but what cracked me up over there was about 6 people who continually ragged on IBD, canslim, the air conditioning, their bowel problems, whathaveyou.

but the arguing was fun to watch especially when you realize that most of them were just lightweights anyway.

Kind of like the value_oasis yahoo group a friend told me about. Geez what a bunch of goofs. At least around here there seems to be an as yet unmet quota of goofs. A comliment

studentofthemarket

Hey...You and I ought to meet up at the next Trader's Expo or Money Show...You'd have a ball with me questioning the IBD people...It really is a joke...The only thing better at those shows is the "Hosted" Cybertrader bar...Missed the NYC one that just happened...Probably can't make the May one in Vegas either...But will probably go next Fall wherever it is...Doug(IIC)

[peanuts]

Day 3 Ibdgm

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -2.62% $5,911.89

ASVI -0.52
ERS -0.60
NWRE -1.00
SNDK -1.52
WDC -0.97
WSO -.44

[IIC]

Peanuts...Not that it has anything to do with your scan...But just as a note of interest I saw this yesterday re: SNDK

If anyone is interested you can read about structured products and HITS at http://Amex.com ...IIC

AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE LISTS MORGAN STANLEY'S 13.25% HITS LINKED TO SANDISK CORPORATION

New York, February 22, 2006 - The American Stock Exchange(Amex) today began trading Morgan Stanley's 13.25% HITS linked to SanDisk Corporation.

Priced at $10 per HITS with an initial offer size of 1,800,000 shares, this equity trades under the ticker symbol SHM and has a maturation date of March 20, 2007. The notes are issued by Morgan Stanley. The Amex specialist unit is Wolverine Trading LLP. If you have any questions or would like to receive a copy of the prospectus for SHM, please contact the Capital Markets Group at the American Stock Exchange at [email protected] or call 212-306-1659

[skiracer]

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -2.62% $5,911.89

ASVI -0.52
ERS -0.60
NWRE -1.00
SNDK -1.52
WDC -0.97
WSO -.44

An the worm has turned. They are such fickle entities these stocks. They never quite understand what it is that we want of them. My feelings for awhile now are that it is harder to hold a basket of several stocks than to hold one or two and rotate more frequently. But to each his own. I'd have to go back and look but are any of these at or past the 7 % loss point. That's a big point in O'Neil's discipline about honoring a minimal stop and using them.
You've still got plenty of room at 7% except with NWRE which is kind of close. Will you honor that discipline or are you not following their strategys that close.

[peanuts]

Day 4 and end of week 1

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.67% $5,951.76

ASVI -0.16
ERS +0.57
NWRE +0.46
SNDK -1.14
WDC +0.21
WSO +0.59

WEEK 1 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: ($48.52)
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: (0.80%)
Largest individual return to date: WSO, 5.29%
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (7.57%)


If you think that I can add some stats to this so that you get more information from it, please let me know.

Looks like week 1 didn't go so well.

I would appreciate any efforts you can make to keep the discussion on this thread pertinent to the picks, results, and any knowledge gained. Let's not waste one another's time with fickle banter. I know, it is tough not to respond... I think you are up to the test, however. Thanks!

[spikefader]

hiya peanut.

Hang in there dude....it's not so bad. DOW was -0.55% for the week.

I really like WSO for next week. It's Creme of the Crop material the way it sets up today.

Quick question on your picks: Any technical based entries for them or just basket buy open or similar? Wondering if you checked intraday on the days you bought 'em whether buying support would have made any difference to your figures.

Keep postin' dude.

[peanuts]

Quick question on your picks: Any technical based entries for them or just basket buy open or similar? Wondering if you checked intraday on the days you bought 'em whether buying support would have made any difference to your figures.

I used the closing price (4:00) on Friday, Feb 17. All prices recorded are closing price each day. I would not be able to track the portfolio's intraday value, only individual stocks. Adding the highs and lows of each stock each day would not give me this figure unless each day all the stocks were reaching their respective highs and lows simultaneously.

I see your point and I too think it would be interesting to see the max and min value possible. If I do the experiment again, maybe I'll change the parameters or track the portfolio several different ways. Until then, we're stuck with what I've got.

I really like WSO for next week. It's Creme of the Crop material the way it sets up today.

I'm not recommending any of the stocks in the portfolio. Are you recommending to purchase WSO? It does look tempting.

[skiracer]

I used the closing price (4:00) on Friday, Feb 17. All prices recorded are closing price each day. I would not be able to track the portfolio's intraday value, only individual stocks. Adding the highs and lows of each stock each day would not give me this figure unless each day all the stocks were reaching their respective highs and lows simultaneously.

I see your point and I too think it would be interesting to see the max and min value possible. If I do the experiment again, maybe I'll change the parameters or track the portfolio several different ways. Until then, we're stuck with what I've got.



I'm not recommending any of the stocks in the portfolio. Are you recommending to purchase WSO? It does look tempting.

So you did just buy them at the market at the close on Friday. Are you going to keep track of these 5 for the next few weeks to see how they perform over a longer period of time. Will you be adding or creating another list of 5 each week? I'd like to know what's the point your trying to show or prove. Has it got anything to do with trying to show the IBD 100 list is a top performer or that it's a good list to find a decent stock or two from.
I was curious as to whether or not you were placing any stops an at what % from your initial entry. You never answered that question.
Since their list changes pretty much every week and any given 5 stocks could change rankings and RS values etc. I thought you would be adding 5 new stocks each week to give a fair representation of the IBD 100 as it changes.

[mrmarket]

So you did just buy them at the market at the close on Friday. Are you going to keep track of these 5 for the next few weeks to see how they perform over a longer period of time. Will you be adding or creating another list of 5 each week? I'd like to know what's the point your trying to show or prove. Has it got anything to do with trying to show the IBD 100 list is a top performer or that it's a good list to find a decent stock or two from.

Ski...I don't think there is anything wrong with using the IBD100 as a starting point for highgrading further screens. Sure it overlooks some great stocks and also contains some lemons, but there are also some good stocks in there.

The only stock that eventually matters is the one you make a play on.

[skiracer]

Ski...I don't think there is anything wrong with using the IBD100 as a starting point for highgrading further screens. Sure it overlooks some great stocks and also contains some lemons, but there are also some good stocks in there.

The only stock that eventually matters is the one you make a play on.

I agree with you completely. I'm sure there are a number of good stocks on that list and like any other list of stocks there are going to be a few that are setting up technically or fundamentally to make a move. I also think that fundamentally speaking the CANSLIM methodology is great for mining fundamentally sound stocks that will appreciate over some period of time. There's no guarantee because their discipline works better in a bull market or a rallying market atmosphere and just buying in at some point without considering the chart aspects and the r/r can turn into a mistake. It's probably the biggest fact in my leaving their strategys behind years ago.
My own personal feelings about the IBD 100 list of stocks isn't the question as much as trying to see what Peanuts is trying to show. He hasn't set up any specific parameters that the list is operating within. No stops or triggers or planned entry or exit points. Just lets see how this list does after 5 or 6 weeks. I would bet almost anything that without some type of stringent plan or controls it has to end up down overall after the 5 or 6 weeks. Just like if you picked the best 5 bets out of a football or baskets line every week and bet them all every week. You would be the bookmakers best friend. I just don't believe that holding 5 or more stocks indescriminately for 5 or 6 weeks will end up on the plus side over the course of that period. And to do that repeatedly would be very hard without rotating in an out at the most opportune points in their cycles. But it'll be interesting to see how the percentages work out over the course of time. I have to be careful here and not put out to much fickle banter and waste anyone's time with the specifics of a managed discipline or plan.

[mrmarket]

Let's see how he does. I think he should be commended for sticking his neck out. There are a lot of folks (most of them still over at the IBD forum, thankfully) who like to be critics but never seem to say where they stand on anything. Peanuts is not one of those.

Heck, NY4Ever is brave enough to make market calls.

[spikefader]

Are you recommending to purchase WSO? It does look tempting.

I recommend it's worth stalking for a long.......it's price action since October has been very bullish channel-wise. It's a good one to patiently wait for some weakness to buy into....perhaps a return to the weekly channel?? currently 65.00ish and rising....but it's always about the r/r at the time that happens. I like to see a confirming intraday pattern on a day price returns to a channel. That way the stop is nice and tight. But at the same time, it's got to present a nice juicy target too. It may or may not present one.

But out of all of your picks, I like WSO best. ASVI and ERS too close to double top now. NWRE is doing a broadening pattern that puts me off. WDC was a previous Creme Crop pick that did really well and I do like it, but it might be due to drop for a handle on the 10 year monthly chart (although that runaway gap in Dec is impressive). I'd really like WDC at 17.00 gap support. That'd be worth 4% risk if nothing significantly bearish happens in the meantime.

[DSteckler]

I recommend it's worth stalking for a long.......it's price action since October has been very bullish channel-wise. It's a good one to patiently wait for some weakness to buy into....perhaps a return to the weekly channel?? currently 65.00ish and rising....but it's always about the r/r at the time that happens. I like to see a confirming intraday pattern on a day price returns to a channel. That way the stop is nice and tight. But at the same time, it's got to present a nice juicy target too. It may or may not present one.

But out of all of your picks, I like WSO best. ASVI and ERS too close to double top now. NWRE is doing a broadening pattern that puts me off. WDC was a previous Creme Crop pick that did really well and I do like it, but it might be due to drop for a handle on the 10 year monthly chart (although that runaway gap in Dec is impressive). I'd really like WDC at 17.00 gap support. That'd be worth 4% risk if nothing significantly bearish happens in the meantime.

A broadening pattern in NWRE? Spike, are you looking at an intraday chart? I don't see a broadening top on either the daily or weekly chart. I do see a symmetrical triangle.

Same question with ERS: where is the double top? The highs are 23.85 on 2/6 and 21.45 on 2/21 - that is a 10% difference. I see a nice symmetrical triangle on ERS that should be breaking out in one direction or the other within the next day or two.

[spikefader]

A broadening pattern in NWRE? Spike, are you looking at an intraday chart? I don't see a broadening top on either the daily or weekly chart. I do see a symmetrical triangle.

Same question with ERS: where is the double top? The highs are 23.85 on 2/6 and 21.45 on 2/21 - that is a 10% difference. I see a nice symmetrical triangle on ERS that should be breaking out in one direction or the other within the next day or two.

Here's what I'm lookin at:

NWRE:


ERS yeah, I may be too cautious there......I glanced at it I think on a weekly chart and didn't like the look of it. A glance at the daily now shows there's channel long 2 days ago...and yes, good % to the high so maybe ERS may present a good r/r setup. But on the monthly it's likely finished a 3 or 5 up so impulse correction due??.......any upside is gonna meet tuff resistance at the top, which yep is over 10% higher, but I guess show me the r/r setup. Is it long here 19.90 with a stop under 18.25 channel long? That's 8% risk for 15% move to resistance at 22.50 daily closes.......not worth it. Looking at the monthly it's had a pretty impressive impulse up from $6.00 in 275% in 5 months...prolly due for some discounting.