Mining the IBD 100, striking gold

[DSteckler]

Okay, thanks.

[peanuts]

Are you going to keep track of these 5 for the next few weeks to see how they perform over a longer period of time.

I will only be tracking the stock performance of the original 6 IBDGM scan results over a period of 8 weeks (2 months). Each day each stock's closing price and the daily portfolio performance results are recorded. At the end of each week the results of the best and worst performing stocks (since day 1) and the overal portfolio's performance are noted.

Will you be adding or creating another list of 5 each week?

No, but I will post the results of the screen each week the new list and ratings are issued.

I'd like to know what's the point your trying to show or prove. Has it got anything to do with trying to show the IBD 100 list is a top performer or that it's a good list to find a decent stock or two from.

A lot of people swear by the IBD. Personally, I use it to find ideas. I'm not sure of the actual statistical figure, but it has been able to find some of the market's best performing stocks while they were making the greatest gains. I'm not trying to advertise for the IBD. This is only an idea of how to narrow down the list that has already been narrowed down to represent the best performing stocks in the whole market (bear or bull). This experiment is my own test of the rating system that IBD uses, and the 100 list it generates. I'll make any kind of assumptions I can from the experiment, and using the criteria mentioned in the screen, I should be able to duplicate the experiment to 1) any future weeks results 2) other "100 lists" 3) to get the reciprical results (where each result is the opposite- so that I can compare the "creme of the crop" to the "dregs of the barrel"). If it statistically shows that this is a good way to narrow down the IBD 100 to get the best few stocks, then I will set up a real money portfolio. Furthermore, I am using this forum as a documentary of the the experiment so that anyone can copy it if it proves to be a winning system.

I was curious as to whether or not you were placing any stops an at what % from your initial entry. You never answered that question.

The experiment only tracks the portfolio over a period of 8 weeks. No stop losses are placed. That may come into play if the system is proven to pick good stocks- then a trading stategy would have to be developed to maximize gains and minimize losses.

Since their list changes pretty much every week and any given 5 stocks could change rankings and RS values etc. I thought you would be adding 5 new stocks each week to give a fair representation of the IBD 100 as it changes.

I will only post the screen results so that any findings from the experiment can be back tested.

As with all experiments, not all variables can be accounted for. This list does not take into account the general market trend, any global or national events which may influence markets, the shorting effect which some proclaim happens with IBD listing, or any other kind of manipulation.

[skiracer]

Thanks for answering my questions. I would find it hard to trade without using a planned exit strategy (stops) either fixed or trailing. And one of O'Neil's basic premises is the 7% stop loss. It's not important to use them with your experiment but if you were holding these positions in your real trading account would you be using them or not. Also was curious about your actual discipline or strategys in the real account. Are you short term or intermediate term in holding positions time wise? Good luck with the experiment but in all honesty I have my reservations about it coming out on the positive side. I really believe the odds are more against you in holding any 5 stocks regardless of where they came from or where you found them, without exiting or re-entering during peaks and valleys over a longer time frame. It will be interesting to see how it progresses. Especially from the IBD 100 list.

[peanuts]

Week 2 screen results

I ran the screen on this week's list. Here are the results and Friday's (Feb 24, 2006) closing price:

GFIG $59.08
TS $160.41
GG $25.72
TSU $38.40

[IIC]

I ran the screen on this week's list. Here are the results and Friday's (Feb 24, 2006) closing price:

GFIG $59.08
TS $160.41
GG $25.72
TSU $38.40

Peanuts...Let me make a suggestion...It is not realistic to use Friday's closing price after the fact...You should use Monday's opening price...Doug(IIC)

[Websman]

Interesting... I'm banned from the IBD boards. How's it going over there these days?

[peanuts]

Day 5 (2nd week)

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +2.30% $6,088.46

ASVI +0.19
ERS +0.58
NWRE +0.24
SNDK +4.74
WDC +0.22
WSO 0.00

[IIC]

Peanuts...Let me make a suggestion...It is not realistic to use Friday's closing price after the fact...You should use Monday's opening price...Doug(IIC)

Guess you didn't like my idea...I'm not trying to ruin your project...but I do not think taking a closing price 2 days before you pick the stocks is very useful...You picked them on 2/19/06...The next market open was on Tuesday 2/21/06...Quite a difference overall...Here is the list you posted...I put the 2/21/06 open in Bold...I know this is an IBD experiment...But I don't thinking tracking them the IBD way is very realistic...Unless you are planning to sell your system

Symbol / Shares / Price Per Share
ASVI / 30.7125 / $32.56...34.00
ERS / 51.1509 / $19.55...20.30
NWRE / 39.6040 / $25.25...25.40
SNDK / 17.4246 / $57.39...57.76
WDC / 41.3565 / $24.18...24.50
WSO / 14.573 / $68.62...68.60

Week 1 starts on Tuesday!

Wish me luck.

[Websman]

Interesting... I'm banned from the IBD boards. How's it going over there these days?

[IIC]

Interesting... I'm banned from the IBD boards. How's it going over there these days?

Since you got and Ernie got banned there is nothing interesting to read...So I have not been there...Well, I was there once when Billy plastered my name all over the place...But that's it...Doug

[Websman]

Since you got and Ernie got banned there is nothing interesting to read...So I have not been there...Well, I was there once when Billy plastered my name all over the place...But that's it...Doug

I miss Billy. I hope he's ok.

[IIC]

I miss Billy. I hope he's ok.

I noticed a few others mentioned him on other threads...I hope he is too...Doug

[peanuts]

Guess you didn't like my idea...I'm not trying to ruin your project...but I do not think taking a closing price 2 days before you pick the stocks is very useful...You picked them on 2/19/06...The next market open was on Tuesday 2/21/06...Quite a difference overall...Here is the list you posted...I put the 2/21/06 open in Bold...

You never suggested a reason why the opening price would be better for tracking.

Maybe I should explain my reasoning for using the closing price Friday. It is my understanding that the IBD 100 list is generated each weekend. The closing price is significant to the list and the rating system that IBD uses to determine the results which I am screening. (don't ask how, because I did not write the code, so only 'they' know) It is also reasonable to assume that the closing price will be at the ask in the near future. So, if the system proves to be viable, the closing price could be considered the entry price. However, now that you have me thinking of it, it might be better to also consider the deviation from the closing price as a statistically generating formula to determine a reasonable price range for proper entry... thanks for the implantation of thought. Also, thanks for your research. I am glad it has been noted.

I know this is an IBD experiment...But I don't thinking tracking them the IBD way is very realistic...Unless you are planning to sell your system

My motives are so transparent? Actually, the experiment is to test not only the IBD 100 picks, but also the rating system of IBD. IBD uses mathematical equations to determine strength or weakness in stocks, industries, and markets. Statistically speaking, they have been fairly succesfull in finding some of the best money making opportunities for all people, and major price moves before they happen. Furthermore, I think there might be some way to find either kinks in their system's armor, or a way to find the real gems of the whole bunch. Either way, I looking for a way to use the IBD to find the Microsofts of 84 or Yahoo!'s of 98 & 99, or maybe the stocks that are absolutely terrible and are great shorts (sorry, no examples as I am mostly a bull and avoid bears). A way to find this information before it happens would make for a great asset... aren't you lucky to be witnessing the grass roots efforts... right here? But, even if something can be formulated from this experiement, the actual value, like all of the stocks we buy/hold/sell, will only be determined by what the next guy will pay for it...

Interesting... I'm banned from the IBD boards. How's it going over there these days?

I do not, and have not ever posted on the IBD boards, nor have I ever read any of the posts. I am of no use to you if you are only interested in the IBD board

[Websman]

I do not, and have not ever posted on the IBD boards, nor have I ever read any of the posts. I am of no use to you if you are only interested in the IBD board

Keep posting. Your information is good..

The IBD board sucks...jejeje

[skiracer]

My motives are so transparent? Actually, the experiment is to test not only the IBD 100 picks, but also the rating system of IBD. IBD uses mathematical equations to determine strength or weakness in stocks, industries, and markets. Statistically speaking, they have been fairly succesfull in finding some of the best money making opportunities for all people, and major price moves before they happen. Furthermore, I think there might be some way to find either kinks in their system's armor, or a way to find the real gems of the whole bunch. Either way, I looking for a way to use the IBD to find the Microsofts of 84 or Yahoo!'s of 98 & 99, or maybe the stocks that are absolutely terrible and are great shorts (sorry, no examples as I am mostly a bull and avoid bears). A way to find this information before it happens would make for a great asset... aren't you lucky to be witnessing the grass roots efforts... right here? But, even if something can be formulated from this experiement, the actual value, like all of the stocks we buy/hold/sell, will only be determined by what the next guy will pay for it...


Actually I think we're all lucky that you aren't taking up more space with whatever it is that you're trying to do. You picked 5 stocks from the IBD 100 list without giving any explanation of how you arrived at your choices other than their IBD 100 ratings. We all know the reasons for their being on the list in the first place. You give no rationale other than they are on the IBD 100 list and that you are going to track them for 8 wks. You give no technical explanation of their charts, no reasoning for making the selections in the first place, no plan whatsoever as to entry points or reasoning for entry, no target expectations, and no reasonalbe exit strategy or stop loss point. On top of that you try and make it sound like it is something totally earth shattering in its relevantancy to trading strategys or disciplines. You give nothing except 5 stocks with nothing else and you expect a group of experienced traders to accept what you are doing as something sophisticated or worthwhile. Give us something with a little meat on it. Something with some thought put into it and the proof thereof. You've given nothing except 5 stocks from a list of 100 an I just fail to see anything enlightening in the whole matter. If I have missed something please back it up with something substantial that we can sink our teeth into other than cheap talk. You haven't offered up anything with any of this that I can see as significant or that I might want to add to my knowledge base. On top of all that your resistance to dialogue that could have a beneficail effect on the experiment makes me wonder about the reasoning behind the whole experiment. Personally I need something with alot more substance and thought behind it. You haven't backed it up with anything near that other than the ability to pick 5 random stocks from the IBD 100 list. I think you will have to do better that that to maintain our attention.