MFLX ==> The Exelauno Day Winner

[New-born baby]

Thanks NBB. Your posts are appreciated.

I might just exit this position and look elsewhere for a better opportunity. Then again, I haven't lost anything until I sell, at least in theory.

DF,
I think that this thing will continue to fall to $36 or even lower. Perhaps leaving is the best thing. The option chain is too weak to pull you out of the hole. Often longterm leaps will sustain a stock, or the stock repair strategy will get one out at breakeven, but this thing is too broken to fix that way (down more than 20% on a weak option chain).

[alice4321us]

No shares to short on IB

An option is for 100 shares. So you could only sell 2 contracts, or else if you sold 3, you risk having to cover than contract.

The option chain is not rich enough to cover this fall. It is greater than 20%, and is going to be very, very ugly, I am afraid.

I guess I would play it this way: first, we need to determine the target price for MFLX. Initially we said $47. However, this bear flag of $11+, according to Dow Theory, says that the secondary target must now be lowered to $36.

Secondly, after the true target is determined, about the only way out of it is to sell short term options and hope that it climbs again. Alternatively, you could buy several puts. But you are now throwing more money into the hole.

I'll post another strategy soon. Strikes and everything. I need to let the dust settle on this one a little bit.

IB doesn't have any shares to short on this puppy.
What are the ways to play this to offset the losses.

[New-born baby]

Jessie

Jessie Livermore said that "when you see a stock fall, don't stand around and ask why. The only thing to do is get out!"

[spikefader]

Very good r/r here for MFLX long. Gap support with inverted SHS. Long here 45.62 with stop under lod.

[DSteckler]

Very good r/r here for MFLX long. Gap support with inverted SHS. Long here 45.62 with stop under lod.

What inverted SHS?

[New-born baby]

1 minute chart

What inverted SHS?

Probably speaking about the 1 minute chart.

And I'd like to know what your target is, if you don't mind

And this question: is this an "a" move on the EW? Or what, if you don't mind

[spikefader]

Very good r/r here for MFLX long. Gap support with inverted SHS. Long here 45.62 with stop under lod.

Chart.
R/R is a HUUGE 21-fold your risk. Or shoo, if you just want a nice 10-fold, target 20%.

[New-born baby]

Chart.
R/R is a HUUGE 21-fold your risk. Or shoo, if you just want a nice 10-fold, target 20%.

What is the target in dollar terms?
And what about today's HUGE bear flagpole? Doesn't that signal a further drop to you?

[spikefader]

Hey New-Born. You are a clever guy; did I ever tell you this?!

And I know that you know the deal with these expanding channel longs. If the pattern fails and you're long, you want to get outa the way of the train. One should never underestimate the power of a high volume gap down like this one.

Daily Chart

Best to all!

[New-born baby]

Hey New-Born. You are a clever guy; did I ever tell you this?!

And I know that you know the deal with these expanding channel longs. If the pattern fails and you're long, you want to get outa the way of the train. One should never underestimate the power of a high volume gap down like this one.

Daily Chart

Best to all!

Thanks for taking the time to show me your reasoning, Spike
You know that much of what I have learned has come right off of your thread here. And all the patient teaching has helped me a great deal.

That lOD just failed. UhOh, MILDRED!
I see what you are thinking: Raff's channels. I was thinking that old Dow Theory of the bear pole . . . . which means another $14.50 drop is in the cards for MFLX. I guess I would say I like the channel longs when a stock has the MoMo, but a look at the daily and weekly of MFLX shows that this stock has lost the momo, much like PARL has in recent weeks. Remember the "momo trendlines?" I use it.

I guess I'd also say to the followers of the HUGE one that if his pick hasn't reached target in 4 weeks, I would be considering "alternative" action .
This thing wasn't a freight train; it was an avalanche; it was an earthquake; it was a volcanic eruption. And it buried a lot of people.

[DSteckler]

<< And what about today's HUGE bear flagpole? Doesn't that signal a further drop to you? >>

Probably does. Support is the 200DMA, around 41.40.

[spikefader]

What is the target in dollar terms?
And what about today's HUGE bear flagpole? Doesn't that signal a further drop to you?

OK, big target is full recovery to 65.00 resistance and second target is simply a preferred r/r number I like. 10-fold risk is pretty cool hehe. But I note the setup just failed.......so caution longs as I holler to Mildred.

[New-born baby]

<< And what about today's HUGE bear flagpole? Doesn't that signal a further drop to you? >>

Probably does. Support is the 200DMA, around 41.40.

Thanks, Dave. Would you kindly give me your bottom target for this shot duck? In other words, do you think the 200 day will hold? I appreciate your help

I'll just say it: looking at >$30 now . . . horribly ugly.

[spikefader]

Thanks for taking the time to show me your reasoning, Spike
You know that much of what I have learned has come right off of your thread here. And all the patient teaching has helped me a great deal.

That lOD just failed. UhOh, MILDRED!
I see what you are thinking: Raff's channels. I was thinking that old Dow Theory of the bear pole . . . . which means another $14.50 drop is in the cards for MFLX. I guess I would say I like the channel longs when a stock has the MoMo, but a look at the daily and weekly of MFLX shows that this stock has lost the momo, much like PARL has in recent weeks. Remember the "momo trendlines?" I use it.

Sure, anytime dude. Glad to know that May you live long and prosper

Yep, MFLX; they don't all work, only gained 1.7% from the call. But failures are par for the course. Make the r/r favorable and let the cards fall where they may. Yesterday's GEMS was a similar play to this one.......and that ran over +20% from that perfect R shoulder in the space of an hour. That one has since disappointed and given it all back, so that's an uh oh Mildred too.

When they don't act right, ya just gotta cut 'em. And that Jessie Livermore quote is so true. So CAUTION MFLX longs! hehe

And EW-wise, over 2 days I count that it was a 'c' short setup at 46.38......i.e. the spike up from my suggested long entry. So yes, I caught the 'b' completion area (actually a tad early) so my ride only got as good as the length of 'c'.

[DSteckler]

NB, MFLX "should" have held at 47. Since it blew right past that, a pullback to 40 - 41 is likely. Since this is also close to the 200DMA, that increases the likelihood of it holding as support.