MFLX ==> The Exelauno Day Winner

[Adman]

From 3/6:

Ernie-I was in Multi-Fineline on 12/20 at 37 and some change and sold 1/31 at 54.02.
I almost went back in at 51 on 2/23, but thought there would be more of a pullback coming.
Yes it is hovering around 60, and I do believe it will cover your 69.67 mark, but not by 4/14 as you hope. I do believe you will see it break through 70, (barring any radical geo-political shenanigans) in late June, towards the end of the quarter. I am looking for a bit of a pullback, say around 55.75-55.90, then pick up more. Think about adding 50% to your position at that time.
It has risen steady over the past 7 1/2 months, and I still believe you will see a short term leveling followed by a pullback before you will see a 15% pick up.
Today, at 60, you're in, and if I'm am missing the mark on this, you're also golden!

From 3/9:

She's coming my way. I still stand by my 55.90 as an entry point. I will be watching closely, and may up that to 56.20, as it has started a big pullback. Right now, it's at 57.83, down over a buck in the past few minutes.

From 3/13:

I dropped my entry and went in Friday at 53.60.
Up today at the open, to 56.74.
I have a limit in to sell 50% of my position at 59.01, which will net me 10+ percent.

I will jetison the remaining 50% at 61.93, netting me out 15 plus percent on that half. I am revising my forecast of 70 by mid-year, and am now expecting a mid- year stall out around 65.73.

I will be watching this very closely, and may again, revise my sell number down on the second half of my position. I will disclose if I do.

From 3/14:

Adman, you're HUGE! Thanks for the update.
Cordially,
Geri

I have revised my outlook here. I still plan to sell half of my position, but I have upped it from 59.01 to 60.06. The second half of the position will probably be sold off if when we hit the 62.18 mark. I still stand by the 65-66 stall out before continuing its' ascension to 70.

With all that said above, I hung in and I sold the remaining 50% on Monday at 63.40.
I was somewhat right about the mid-60's stall out, but I did not see this big pullback. For those of you still in, this is a hold. After last nights volitility, I would not suggest picking up any more, as I stated in an earlier post.
We have seen the pullbacks on 2/23 and 3/10, with MFLX rebounding nicely, my gut tells me this will bounce back, but not with the vigor and enthusiasm as in the past.
I honestly thought I had errored in selling when she got back to 67 on Wednesday. I really thought it was going to chug right up to 70, by today.
I now can't say when we will see 70. It could be next week, it could be September.

[jiesen]

those were some great calls, Adman!

[gerihearne]

ditto

those were some great calls, Adman!

Props to Adman.
Also, I'm in the camp of holding.
Thanks again for your informative posts, Adman.
A big help to newcomers to the market like me.

Cordially,
Geri

[lemonjello]

'Ere, he says he's not dead.

Blood in the MFLX streets - I'm buying back the short calls on this one.

.....................
The Dead Collector: Bring out yer dead.
[a man puts a body on the cart]
Large Man with Dead Body: Here's one.
The Dead Collector: That'll be ninepence.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Dead Collector: What?
Large Man with Dead Body: Nothing. There's your ninepence.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Dead Collector: 'Ere, he says he's not dead.
Large Man with Dead Body: Yes he is.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not.
The Dead Collector: He isn't.
Large Man with Dead Body: Well, he will be soon, he's very ill.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm getting better.
..............

[jiesen]

'ere's the ANALyst trying to club MFLX on the 'ead

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060331/m_flex_mover.html?.v=1

Interesting speculation on the day-by-day moves of MFLX in the AP:

Note that the analyst with the bearish opinion has these two beefs with MFLX:

1) He can't see the benefit of the merger clearly enough for his taste.

2) He thinks Motorola won't want to do business with MFLX anymore because MFLX will be growing too much (gaining too much market share)

wtf?

[Adman]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060331/m_flex_mover.html?.v=1

Interesting speculation on the day-by-day moves of MFLX in the AP:

Note that the analyst with the bearish opinion has these two beefs with MFLX:

1) He can't see the benefit of the merger clearly enough for his taste.

2) He thinks Motorola won't want to do business with MFLX anymore because MFLX will be growing too much (gaining too much market share)

wtf?

To speak to #1, that's just one analysts opinion, and I must respect that, while I disagree with him.
#2, I think that is pure horse sh&t. If anything, MOT's advantage is to continue along it's current path, and explore possibilities of taking some of MFLX for their own, sometime down the road.
Yes, there is "blood in the streets", but, as I mentioned in an earlier dispatch today, if you are in, hold. I re-affirm my hold position. There is no reason to panick sell at this point, but I certainly would not look to increase my position at this time.
(You are only off 3% today)

I pulled this off of FirstCall earlier, Sorry for the length:

March 30, 2006 06:19:54 (ET)


ANAHEIM, Calif., March 30, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Multi-Fineline Electronix, Inc. (MFLX, Trade), one of the leading global providers of high-quality, technologically advanced flexible printed circuit and value-added component assembly solutions to the electronics industry, with FY2005 net revenues of U.S. $357 million and net income of U.S. $35 million, announced today that, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain specified conditions, it intends to make an offer to purchase all of the issued ordinary shares of MFS Technology Ltd ("MFS") in a voluntary general offer under Singapore law, which is similar to a tender offer in the U.S. MFS is a one-stop provider that specializes in design, prototype, production and assembly of flexible printed circuits complemented by printed circuit boards with manufacturing facilities in Singapore, Malaysia and China. MFS' ordinary shares are listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX: MFS Tech) with FY 2005 revenues of S$380 million and net profit of S$35 million.

Holders of MFS ordinary shares will be offered the option to receive either 0.0145 shares of M-Flex common stock for each share of MFS, or cash in the amount of:


* S$1.15 (U.S. $0.71 based on an exchange rate of U.S $1.00 to S$1.6227,
as reported on Bloomberg on March 28, 2006) per MFS share if less than
90% of MFS shares are tendered, excluding shares held by M-Flex, its
related corporations or their respective nominees; or
* S$1.20 (U.S. $0.74 based on an exchange rate of U.S. $1.00 to S$1.6227,
as reported on Bloomberg on March 28, 2006) per MFS share if at least
90% of the shares held by MFS shareholders are tendered, excluding
shares already held by M-Flex, its related corporations or their
respective nominees.
MFS shareholders may elect to receive either stock consideration or cash consideration, but not both. MFS shareholders who elect to take the stock consideration will be required to agree not to sell any of the stock consideration for a period of six months after the closing of the offer, if it closes.

The total value of the deal is expected to be approximately U.S. $500 million with the exact amount depending upon the extent of participation and the number of MFS shareholders electing the cash or stock consideration. M-Flex expects to finance the offer, which will involve the payment of up to U.S. $222 million in cash depending upon the level of MFS shareholder participation and whether MFS shareholders elect cash or stock.

The exchange ratio was determined through an arms' length negotiation among MFS, M-Flex and WBL Corporation Limited, the common majority stockholder of both MFS and M-Flex. In reaching the determination, the special independent committee and board of M-Flex considered, among other factors, the historical operating results, share price performance and the prospects of MFS and M-Flex.

According to M-Flex's chairman and chief executive officer, Phil Harding, the strategic, operational and financial synergies expected to result from M-Flex's anticipated acquisition of MFS include:


Strategic and Operational Synergies
* M-Flex expects to have the expanded scale to pursue additional product
programs in support of the growing demand for handsets. In terms of
historical revenues, the combined group would become the second largest
company in the world for flex and flex assembly manufacturing.
* M-Flex expects to leverage the available capacity at MFS' established
manufacturing operations.
* M-Flex expects the acquisition will move it toward its stated strategy
of achieving customer diversification.
* M-Flex believes the acquisition will enhance its design capabilities by
allowing it to tap into MFS' Singapore-based design center. MFS' design
center has developed new product platforms, many of which are targeted
to high-growth Asian markets.
* M-Flex expects to enhance its marketing resources and research and
development activities through expanded geographic presence to broaden
the development and accelerate the capture of new customer opportunities
and new product applications.
* M-Flex expects to reduce exposure to risks related to geographic
concentration with added facilities in other countries.
Financial Synergies
* M-Flex expects to realize a reduction in its overall effective tax rate
through expansion of its operations and activities in countries with
lower tax rates.
* M-Flex expects to improve operational efficiencies by streamlining the
manufacturing capabilities of both companies.
* M-Flex expects to decrease manufacturing costs, primarily related to
purchased materials, commonly used by both M-Flex and MFS.
The closing of the offer will be subject to a minimum acceptance level of 64 percent of MFS shares. WBL is a beneficial owner of approximately 56 percent of MFS' outstanding shares and approximately 61 percent of M-Flex's outstanding shares. WBL has provided MFS and M-Flex with an irrevocable commitment to support the proposed transaction and to tender its shares in MFS for the stock consideration, if and when the formal offer is made, subject to approval of WBL shareholders, if required. In addition, certain directors of MFS have agreed to tender their shares of MFS to M-Flex in the offer. These individuals, together with WBL, own at least 57 percent of MFS outstanding shares. WBL would own beneficially between 59 percent and 68 percent of the M-Flex common stock (56.1% and 64%, on an effective ownership basis) upon completion of the acquisition, assuming full acceptance of the offer, and based upon non-WBL shareholders of MFS accepting either all stock consideration or all cash consideration in the transaction.

Harding said, "M-Flex has a proven track record with more than 20 years as a provider of high-quality, technologically advanced flexible printed circuit and value-added component assembly solutions to the electronics industry. MFS also has a strong history specializing in the design, manufacture and assembly of flexible printed circuit products. With a combined presence that spans China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, the Netherlands and the United States, we believe together we will have a broader geographic reach and one of the most competitive positions in the marketplace."

The making of the offer is still subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain pre-conditions including among other things: (1) the approval of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of the use of the prospectus/offer document to be sent to the shareholders of MFS and the proxy statement to be sent to the stockholders of M-Flex; and (2) the approval, if necessary, of the shareholders of WBL, with respect to the tender of the shares by WBL in the offer.

As soon as reasonably practicable M-Flex intends to prepare and file a Form S-4 Registration Statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that will contain a proxy statement with respect to the special stockholder meeting to be held by M-Flex and a prospectus/offer document, that will be sent to MFS shareholders. Once SEC approval is obtained, M-Flex will announce the offer and thereafter will mail the proxy statement to its stockholders. Between 14 days and 21 days from the date of the announcement of the offer, if any, M-Flex will mail the prospectus/offer document to MFS shareholders. It is expected that the closing of the offer will occur on or about the date of the special stockholders meeting of M-Flex stockholders, which will occur within 60 days after the proxy is mailed, assuming all of the conditions for the closing of the offer have been satisfied or waived. The prospectus/offer document will contain the terms and conditions of the offer.

Advisors

M-Flex is advised by Needham & Company, LLC and DBS Bank Ltd. for investment banking and financial advisory services. M-Flex's legal advisors are Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, San Diego, California and Rajah & Tann, Singapore. MFS is advised by Macquarie Securities (Asia) Pte Limited for investment banking and financial advisory services. Drew & Napier LLC, Singapore and Baker & McKenzie LLP, San Francisco, California are legal advisors to MFS.

Conference Call

M-Flex will host a conference call to discuss the transaction today at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time and 9:00 a.m. Pacific time. The dial-in number for this call in North America is 800-818-5264 and 913-981-4910 for international callers. The call also will be webcast live on the Internet and can be accessed by logging onto www.mflex.com. The webcast will be archived on the company's website for 60 days following the call. An audio replay of the conference calls will be available for 14 days beginning at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time (1:00 p.m. Pacific time) on March 30, 2006. The audio replay dial-in number is 719-457-0820. The replay pass code is 6214357.

About M-Flex

M-Flex (www.mflex.com) is a global provider of high-quality, technologically advanced flexible printed circuit and value-added component assembly solutions to the electronics industry. The company is one of a limited number of manufacturers that provides a seamless, integrated end-to-end flexible printed circuit solution for customers, ranging from design and application engineering, prototyping and high-volume manufacturing to turnkey component assembly and testing. The company targets its solutions within the electronics market and, in particular, focuses on applications where flexible printed circuits are the enabling technology in achieving a desired size, shape, weight or functionality of an electronic device. Current applications for the company's products include mobile phones and smart mobile devices, personal digital assistants, mobile power adapters, medical devices, computer/data storage and portable bar code scanners. M-Flex completed its initial public offering in June 2004, and its common stock is quoted on the Nasdaq National Market.

[Runner]

One of the most misused terms in the markets is the famous “double top”. MFLX has not put in a double top until last reaction low has been taken out. Here is my question as far as today’s volume goes. By looking at the volume today it shows me it was higher then yesterday but yet the stock closed near the high of the day. Is this an example of why volume should be a secondary indicator? It looks to me as if some buyers stepped in on MFLX.

[DSteckler]

One of the most misused terms in the markets is the famous “double top”. MFLX has not put in a double top until last reaction low has been taken out. Here is my question as far as today’s volume goes. By looking at the volume today it shows me it was higher then yesterday but yet the stock closed near the high of the day. Is this an example of why volume should be a secondary indicator? It looks to me as if some buyers stepped in on MFLX.

Volume is used as a confirming or diverging indicator, not a primary or secondary indicator. Also, a double top doesn't necessarily need to take out a reaction low; all it needs to take out is the lowest low between the two highs.

[Runner]

[Runner]

My typing sucks. I meant to type "READING"......

[spikefader]

Yeah Runner I get your point, and fair nuf. Only time will tell if it's a double top or not. You and others are happy to wait for a no doubt confirmation. Me, in this case with MFLX, I happily elect to overuse the term and call it what it appears to be until I'm proven wrong. Look at the monthly candle for it; for whatever that single thing is worth.

But double top or not, the high resistance got sold hard, and price is down 12% or so in 2 days. Was a good trade to short the resistance up there....that's for sure.

[Runner]

Spike, I just wanted to through out the classical definition of a double top. This info came from one of John Murphy’s books.

[New-born baby]

Spike

Spike,
Concerning MFLX, would you can to tell us what to expect starting Monday?

[spikefader]

Yep, and glad ya did Runner; got me thinkin! Had to make sure I wasn't too much of a knucklehead hehe

Hey New-Born! I'm expecting either a flag formation or a R shoulder. It'll be tricky to trade well for a week or so, and then direction will become clearer. I'm expecting gap fills right now. But it's still early days.

What do you expect dude?! Inquiring minds wanna know.

[New-born baby]

Mflx

Hey New-Born! I'm expecting either a flag formation or a R shoulder. It'll be tricky to trade well for a week or so, and then direction will become clearer. I'm expecting gap fills right now. But it's still early days.

What do you expect dude?! Inquiring minds wanna know.

Basically, I am expecting the very same thing. Monday I expect a bounce, at least until about 1:00 EST, of perhaps $1.50-$2. Then I expect sellers to come in and reduce the gain for the day, but still a green Monday for MFLX.
This, of course, is speculation, and based upon two factors: 1. Buyers stepped up with real power at the close Friday (imo, shorts were covering), [GM--same thing] and 2. people will study the charts over the weekend, and seeing the bullish finish, will again hope for a strong recovery like MFLX had two weeks ago when it moved from $55-$68 in a few days.

Therefore I expect MFLX to make a good daytrade long for Monday. Longer term--the chart says what the chart says, and Friday's action lowered the PnF target from $53 to $47. No time to take a position long until the situation resolves itself, imo. One could sell out of the money calls or buy in the money puts, or try to scalp the stock; but everything else is too dangerous, imo.