Admans outlook

[The Stock Boy]

Once again,
YOU ARE HUGE!!!!$$$$$$

April 3rd, I researched and bought, on your idea, ACSEF: 300 shares at 4.78.
Today, I sold them for $10.45!!! That's a 120% gain!!!
You are without a doubt, the best stock picker here! YOU ARE HUGE$$$$$

[Adman]

Once again,
YOU ARE HUGE!!!!$$$$$$

April 3rd, I researched and bought, on your idea, ACSEF: 300 shares at 4.78.
Today, I sold them for $10.45!!! That's a 120% gain!!!
You are without a doubt, the best stock picker here! YOU ARE HUGE$$$$$

Thank you. I am flattered by your enthusiasm, and am happy some of you have been able to profit from my picks, that makes me happy.
I really need to be honest here, I did not see a one day 105% run up coming. In fact, I sold off all my ACSEF last week, taking about 22% in a month’s time (give or take).
It is no longer market timing as much as it is time in the market. Thanks again for the kudos, and congrats on the windfall. I believe you were also a big winner on Italian American Pasta Co a while back. Just remember to not get in over your head again, and you have fun while making money.

[noshadyldy]

Adman,
Which of your picks are you still in? (hope that's not too gauly of me)

[Lyehopper]

Once again,
YOU ARE HUGE!!!!$$$$$$

April 3rd, I researched and bought, on your idea, ACSEF: 300 shares at 4.78.
Today, I sold them for $10.45!!! That's a 120% gain!!!
You are without a doubt, the best stock picker here! YOU ARE HUGE$$$$$

Why didn't you play it in the POTW stockboy?

[IIC]

Thank you. I am flattered by your enthusiasm, and am happy some of you have been able to profit from my picks, that makes me happy.
I really need to be honest here, I did not see a one day 105% run up coming. In fact, I sold off all my ACSEF last week, taking about 22% in a month’s time (give or take).
It is no longer market timing as much as it is time in the market. Thanks again for the kudos, and congrats on the windfall. I believe you were also a big winner on Italian American Pasta Co a while back. Just remember to not get in over your head again, and you have fun while making money.

I think Adman makes an important point here...I believe the forum is a beneficial place to pick up some new stock ideas or possibly reinforce our own ideas...We all have to make a decision as to whether or not an idea fits our style. But more importantly, do not depend on me or anyone else to tell you on a timely basis when we sell a stock. That is not practical...Maybe I post it a few mins later...maybe an hour later...maybe that night...maybe I forget to post it at all...I try to post my stuff as timely as possible but a lot of times it is not...I'm fairly certain that applies to everyone.

The main point I'm trying to make is use the forum for idea exchange...But don't try to mimic other's trades...You can really get burned that way...Doug(IIC)

[Adman]

Adman,
Which of your picks are you still in? (hope that's not too gauly of me)

My current portfolios contain 71 stocks, and many are ones that I did not post on. Also, the stocks I post on here, for your review, I might take a position in maybe 1 out of 10. I post my commentary on the picks for the members here to review and decide if they would like or not, not necessarily that I am buying them.
Often, I will take a position, and find a good buy among the peer group, and will post on that.

[Adman]

I think Adman makes an important point here...I believe the forum is a beneficial place to pick up some new stock ideas or possibly reinforce our own ideas...We all have to make a decision as to whether or not an idea fits our style. But more importantly, do not depend on me or anyone else to tell you on a timely basis when we sell a stock. That is not practical...Maybe I post it a few mins later...maybe an hour later...maybe that night...maybe I forget to post it at all...I try to post my stuff as timely as possible but a lot of times it is not...I'm fairly certain that applies to everyone.

The main point I'm trying to make is use the forum for idea exchange...But don't try to mimic other's trades...You can really get burned that way...Doug(IIC)

To Dougs point: Many of the stocks I review and post on are purely for the members of this board to look into. I do not buy every stock I write up, as a matter of fact, I only take a position in 1 out of 10 or so, and I always disclose if I do, am, or am long.
Now, with that out of the way, I post stocks that I think are good buys, and what price point would make a good entry. It is up to the individual investor, if they buy one of my picks, to determine when to sell.
Once in a while, if I am in a position, and I think it is time to move on, I will post when I sell, but most of the time I don't. When I make the initial post, I usually put what I think is a good sell price at that time.
Last week, I thought ACSEF was done, and posted so, I was happy with a 22% gain, luckily, you stayed in and really cleaned up. By my quick and dirty calculations, you cleared about 1600 bucks off a 1400 or so investment.
Don't look for that sort of gain on all my picks, or that many stocks, in general. You got lucky here with ACSEF and PLB earlier, don't let it go to your head.

[IIC]

To Dougs point: Many of the stocks I review and post on are purely for the members of this board to look into. I do not buy every stock I write up, as a matter of fact, I only take a position in 1 out of 10 or so, and I always disclose if I do, am, or am long.
Now, with that out of the way, I post stocks that I think are good buys, and what price point would make a good entry. It is up to the individual investor, if they buy one of my picks, to determine when to sell.
Once in a while, if I am in a position, and I think it is time to move on, I will post when I sell, but most of the time I don't. When I make the initial post, I usually put what I think is a good sell price at that time.
Last week, I thought ACSEF was done, and posted so, I was happy with a 22% gain, luckily, you stayed in and really cleaned up. By my quick and dirty calculations, you cleared about 1600 bucks off a 1400 or so investment.
Don't look for that sort of gain on all my picks, or that many stocks, in general. You got lucky here with ACSEF and PLB earlier, don't let it go to your head.

Well said Adman...BTW, nice to see you back...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

To Dougs point: Many of the stocks I review and post on are purely for the members of this board to look into. I do not buy every stock I write up, as a matter of fact, I only take a position in 1 out of 10 or so, and I always disclose if I do, am, or am long.
Now, with that out of the way, I post stocks that I think are good buys, and what price point would make a good entry. It is up to the individual investor, if they buy one of my picks, to determine when to sell.
Once in a while, if I am in a position, and I think it is time to move on, I will post when I sell, but most of the time I don't. When I make the initial post, I usually put what I think is a good sell price at that time.
Last week, I thought ACSEF was done, and posted so, I was happy with a 22% gain, luckily, you stayed in and really cleaned up. By my quick and dirty calculations, you cleared about 1600 bucks off a 1400 or so investment.
Don't look for that sort of gain on all my picks, or that many stocks, in general. You got lucky here with ACSEF and PLB earlier, don't let it go to your head.

I would think that there are alot of people who visit this site who don't do their own scans an don't have any type of a system to find stocks in some area of their cycles where they like to catch them. And there are plenty of guys who everyday throw out a number of stocks that they think are interesting enough to throw them out there. It would be neat to keep a list of all the stocks that get mentioned with those cute little quips and keep track of them for at least a week to see how they are doing after a week or two. Eventually a few are going to make some type of gains an then a guy like Stockboy hits one and you're the imperial stock wizard. I think it's great that someone does get lucky occassionally. You exited the same stock apparently when Stockboy was just entering it. What were the reasons for your not holding it longer. Did you think it was out of gas or done? Anyway I have no problem with you or anyone else just throwing them out there, 6 or 7 a day, but in my own opinion they should be accompanied with some basic explanation of what you like about them either technically or fundamentally and what you would expect them to do. It would be nice occassionally to see an explanation and then see them perform exactly as the prognosis stated. Most people take credit only when one of those thrown out there make a move in the right direction and never ever when they go the other way, which I would venture to say that the higher percentage of them do. No one ever says boy the last 6 or 7 stocks that I put out there really stunk up the place even though one out of the 7 made a some gains. It's basically standard operating procedure and very typical.
I also feel that it should be standard procedure to give an analysis of why you like the stock, an entry for it to hit to trigger the play, a stop out point, an a target to hit for an exit or taking something off the table to insure keeping some of those gains. You know a plan of some nature so that the less experienced see in effect how the pros do it. That would provide a much better learning experience.

[IIC]

I would think that there are alot of people who visit this site who don't do their own scans an don't have any type of a system to find stocks in some area of their cycles where they like to catch them. And there are plenty of guys who everyday throw out a number of stocks that they think are interesting enough to throw them out there. It would be neat to keep a list of all the stocks that get mentioned with those cute little quips and keep track of them for at least a week to see how they are doing after a week or two. Eventually a few are going to make some type of gains an then a guy like Stockboy hits one and you're the imperial stock wizard. I think it's great that someone does get lucky occassionally. You exited the same stock apparently when Stockboy was just entering it. What were the reasons for your not holding it longer. Did you think it was out of gas or done? Anyway I have no problem with you or anyone else just throwing them out there, 6 or 7 a day, but in my own opinion they should be accompanied with some basic explanation of what you like about them either technically or fundamentally and what you would expect them to do. It would be nice occassionally to see an explanation and then see them perform exactly as the prognosis stated. Most people take credit only when one of those thrown out there make a move in the right direction and never ever when they go the other way, which I would venture to say that the higher percentage of them do. No one ever says boy the last 6 or 7 stocks that I put out there really stunk up the place even though one out of the 7 made a some gains. It's basically standard operating procedure and very typical.
I also feel that it should be standard procedure to give an analysis of why you like the stock, an entry for it to hit to trigger the play, a stop out point, an a target to hit for an exit or taking something off the table to insure keeping some of those gains. You know a plan of some nature so that the less experienced see in effect how the pros do it. That would provide a much better learning experience.

No offense Ski...but that sounds a bit idealistic. Actually, I think Adman does a nice job of explaining. However, I simply don't have the time to do that myself. Do you really expect me to give a little write up on all 100 of the IIC 100 every week? I tell the basic criteria...post the charts at Stockcharts and people can look at them if they want to see if any look interesting enough to them to check out.

Same thing with my Killer Watch Lists...I pick them for various reasons and characteristics...But they are just to watch to see if any act the way I want...It really doesn't matter if only 1 outta 10 acts right if I'm there to catch it.

And I don't mind telling anyone when I lose...As long as I don't have to make a habit of it...LOL...Doug(IIC)

PS: The IIC 100 A/D/U was 25/75/0 today

[skiracer]

No offense Ski...but that sounds a bit idealistic. Actually, I think Adman does a nice job of explaining. However, I simply don't have the time to do that myself. Do you really expect me to give a little write up on all 100 of the IIC 100 every week? I tell the basic criteria...post the charts at Stockcharts and people can look at them if they want to see if any look interesting enough to them to check out.

Same thing with my Killer Watch Lists...I pick them for various reasons and characteristics...But they are just to watch to see if any act the way I want...It really doesn't matter if only 1 outta 10 acts right if I'm there to catch it.

And I don't mind telling anyone when I lose...As long as I don't have to make a habit of it...LOL...Doug(IIC)

PS: The IIC 100 A/D/U was 25/75/0 today

Doug,
You couldn't be farther from what I was talking about. I wasn't anywhere near thinking about you or your lists or that you were one of the posters I was thinking about. It was an entirely different group of posters I had in mind that regularly throws out a number of stocks intraday. I have no problem with any of it other than in my estimation most of them are just thrown out there an without to much of an explanation or analysis. An if some type of score card were kept we might see a different picture of what the percentages are really like.

[Adman]

For the overwhelming majority of stocks I post, I include some background on the pick, what is a good entry point and why it is and where I think it is going and what time frame. (If I am rushed, you may only get an abbreviated version that day).
Unless something prevents me from doing so, I usually put my picks up pre-market or after the close. I am not much on intraday picks, unless I see something unusually hot, (which is rare).
I did keep track of the stocks I posted on, and I have had a couple of negatives, but in my defense, the down stocks have been down by mere pennies.

Overall, my picks were up an average of 12.35% in aggregate, over a five-week period.
As far as ACSEF went, The Stockboy got in at a cost basis very close to mine, a few days after I went in, as I jettisoned the position late last week, and he held. I was in about 4 weeks for 22%; he was in 3 ½ weeks for over 100%. I certainly did not see that coming, and when it reached $5.59, I thought it was running out of gas, I was apparently wrong there. (My cost basis was 4.72 and I think Stockboy’s was $4.80).

Also, I did make a bad call on ICE a while back, and quickly got the word out rescinding my assessment of the stock, with lots of apologies. I am not 100% dead on all the time, but I have been better than 85%. If you notice, at the end of my articles, I always tag on a disclaimer to do your own research, and whether I have any interest in that pick.
Now, before anyone goes and spreadsheets all the picks from my Outlook, keep in mind that more than a few ran up 10, 15 or even 20% before retreating to levels below my initial post picking them.
Remember, as I have said many times, my picks are not recommendations to buy, rather, fresh material for members here to track. Often, I come out with picks on the heels of analyst upgrades (I have a Bloomberg system) or ones that have been overlooked or undiscovered in their respective peer groups.
Happy Trading!

[Lyehopper]

I would think that there are alot of people who visit this site who don't do their own scans an don't have any type of a system to find stocks in some area of their cycles where they like to catch them. And there are plenty of guys who everyday throw out a number of stocks that they think are interesting enough to throw them out there. It would be neat to keep a list of all the stocks that get mentioned with those cute little quips and keep track of them for at least a week to see how they are doing after a week or two. Eventually a few are going to make some type of gains an then a guy like Stockboy hits one and you're the imperial stock wizard. I think it's great that someone does get lucky occassionally. You exited the same stock apparently when Stockboy was just entering it. What were the reasons for your not holding it longer. Did you think it was out of gas or done? Anyway I have no problem with you or anyone else just throwing them out there, 6 or 7 a day, but in my own opinion they should be accompanied with some basic explanation of what you like about them either technically or fundamentally and what you would expect them to do. It would be nice occassionally to see an explanation and then see them perform exactly as the prognosis stated. Most people take credit only when one of those thrown out there make a move in the right direction and never ever when they go the other way, which I would venture to say that the higher percentage of them do. No one ever says boy the last 6 or 7 stocks that I put out there really stunk up the place even though one out of the 7 made a some gains. It's basically standard operating procedure and very typical.
I also feel that it should be standard procedure to give an analysis of why you like the stock, an entry for it to hit to trigger the play, a stop out point, an a target to hit for an exit or taking something off the table to insure keeping some of those gains. You know a plan of some nature so that the less experienced see in effect how the pros do it. That would provide a much better learning experience.

On "Lyehopper's Roundup" I have positions in all of the stocks I feature.... I post all of my featured picks in a running list (closed and open).... including my losers. The track record on my thread is transparent.... Have you noticed that?

[Adman]

On "Lyehopper's Roundup" I have positions in all of the stocks I feature.... I post all of my featured picks in a running list (closed and open).... including my losers. The track record on my thread is transparent.... Have you noticed that?

I have, and you have done a good job at that.

Perhaps, I should keep a running spreadsheet to update on the performance of my picks.
I, however, do not take positions in every pick I post, and likewise, do not post every buy I make, and maybe that's not right, in the spirit of the board.
I do want to assure everyone here that the picks I do feature, have been selected for a wide variety of qualified reasons. I do not take the stance that if I throw enough mud up, some of it will stick.

Many picks that I have featured in the past, were picked because they were in the same peer group with equally good parameters of a stock I may have just purchased, or other bona fide reasons. Not one was a random pick, just for the sake of posting.

Currently, my portfolios contain a total of 76 stocks, 44 of which I did not post on, and out of the 44, 28 of them I owned before joining this board.
I have a total of 38,700 shares of stock, spread among those 76 and have made 117 stock trades YTD, I also have 8 limits in on the sell side, and 4 on the buy (currently), and have had 23 different options YTD, so you see, it would take more than a bit of time to write it all up, and why.
I will make the effort, going forward to keep track of the gains and losses of my features.

[skiracer]

I have, and you have done a good job at that.

Perhaps, I should keep a running spreadsheet to update on the performance of my picks.
I, however, do not take positions in every pick I post, and likewise, do not post every buy I make, and maybe that's not right, in the spirit of the board.
I do want to assure everyone here that the picks I do feature, have been selected for a wide variety of qualified reasons. I do not take the stance that if I throw enough mud up, some of it will stick.

Many picks that I have featured in the past, were picked because they were in the same peer group with equally good parameters of a stock I may have just purchased, or other bona fide reasons. Not one was a random pick, just for the sake of posting.

Currently, my portfolios contain a total of 76 stocks, 44 of which I did not post on, and out of the 44, 28 of them I owned before joining this board.
I have a total of 38,700 shares of stock, spread among those 76 and have made 117 stock trades YTD, I also have 8 limits in on the sell side, and 4 on the buy (currently), and have had 23 different options YTD, so you see, it would take more than a bit of time to write it all up, and why.
I will make the effort, going forward to keep track of the gains and losses of my features.

All I was saying was that of all the stocks that get thrown out there everyday it would be neat to track them to see how they do after a period of time. I know you don't and can't buy them all but alot of people don't understand that. An I wasn't singling you out in particular. I've liked a couple that you have put out there and bought them myself because after looking at them I liked them.