Admans outlook

[IIC]

Rail Roads have been smoking hot for some time now, and I believe the rally will continue for the foreseeable future.
Yesterday, I waded into UNP right at 8AM and caught a nice pop, and will hold UNP for a while. (Read: I don’t have an upside number on it yet).
I have been long in GWR (Genesee & Wyoming) since January “04, garnering a 109% gain. GWR had a split that completed last night (1 for 2), making it not only attractive, but also affordable to take a larger position. I plan on adding to my current position today at 31.45.
This is a strong company with a well polished, old guard management team at the top. Over the past couple of years, GWR has been expanding globally, and looks to become the largest RR in Australia.
This is one to buy, and put in the closet for a long-term hold. As the price creeps up, keep it in check with stop limits. There is an inherent risk that if the transports take a hit, the RR’s will go with them as peripheral or collateral damage.

DISCLOSURE: As mentioned, I am long in GWR.

FYI...I posted the Top Movers in the Railroad Group yesterday in my thread:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=223

[Adman]

Here are a few to take a look at today. Most are trending upward, and I believe there are some short-term gains to capture of that movement.

Escala Group, ESCL. Nothing but good press and a black balance sheet set this stage for an upswing here. With a 52-week range between 8 and 25, at 22.35, there is plenty of room for a $5 bump over the next 5 weeks or so.

Phelps Dodge, PD. This is one I have been watching for a week or so, and they just received an analyst upgrade. I think that copper will continue to move and PD along with PCU (Southern Peru Copper) is the one to ride with. I can’t predict how far off it will be, but look for 10-12% before thinking about rolling back.

For an insurance play, look hard at AZ (ALLIANZ AKTIENGESELLSCHAF ) (I hope I spelled that right). They are in the middle of a price breakout, and I think you should be able to catch another 3-4%, at least, here. Please, If you can’t buy enough to make a 3% move worth your while, look for another play. Unfortunately, there are no options on this one.

My wild cards for the day: Hewlett Packard and Activision.

DISCLOSURE: I am long in PCU and have a limit in to purchase ESCL.

[Adman]

FYI...I posted the Top Movers in the Railroad Group yesterday in my thread:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=223

I missed GWR on the list. I agree 110% with you on WAB. I've been watching that for a few days now, along with RAIL. I was in WAB back when they were WABCO, and it treated me well then, and am looking for good things from them. I will probably go into both today.

[Lyehopper]

CNXT swing trade.... NICE CALL!!!!

CNXT: Conextant, down a little today at 3.12, this one is a player, much like SIRI was when SIRI traded in the 2-2.50-3.00 range a couple of years back. I have been in and out of this several times, and am back in now. Buy below 3.10, sell at 3.30, wait for the drop again, and then buy again. This trades a heavy volume. Eventually, it will get to the 3.50 range and stall, but if you get in at 3.10 and can get out at 3.30 give or take a few cents, then do it. Nobody ever went to the poor house taking a 6.5% gain.

Very Nice call ADman.... CNXT did just as you said and in only two days. You are HUUUGE!!!! Sorry I doubted you.

[Adman]

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Saint Paddy’s day and a nice weekend.
I ended up getting plowed at an Italian bar on Saint Patrick’s Day near 39th and Lex with a bunch of the boys from Bear Stearns.

Here is what I am looking at today:
I had been looking at some retail stocks, and I was liking Best Buy (BBY), when Rex Stores started popping up (RSC). We are a couple of days away from them reporting earnings, but I like what I see. A couple of small blips on the income statement aside, I think you should be able to pick up 5-7% on good numbers here. Even if you don’t get the pop after the numbers and analyst call, I am confident this will play well as a mid-term hold. Perhaps I will revisit Best Buy later in the summer.

It’s funny how things happen; I was taking a good long look at LSI Logic (LSI), actually sitting on the fence, mulling over the red on the balance sheet, when NVDA came up. NVIDIA is a good strong company that looks to have good momentum ahead. Lot’s of positive reports floating around about them, but I am not happy with a share price close to $49. I will be watching this closely for the next several sessions, and if I see it dip below 48, I’m going in.

My sleeper pick of the week: ZONES INC (ZONS). This is an affordable little stock with nothing but good numbers and great reports. They are a mail order catalogue outfit that gets it right. I like them for a variety of reasons (including their financials). They are just off their 52 week high and since December, ZONS has slowly inched up from a $4.50 stock to a $6.75 on almost non-existent volume. Traded so thinly, that 15k shares in a day is big. What does all this indicate? The strong financials and thin volume means that Zones has not made it onto many screens, but that’s about to change. Look to get into this under 7, and expect to see 8 or better by midyear, or sooner. This is not another PLB, but I do expect to see a steady gains in the coming weeks and months.

I do not have a position in any of these companies, but will likely go into ZONS today, and will disclose if I do, as with the others, as well.

[spikefader]

I'm likin' NVDA too Adman. Good luck with it.

[Adman]

Very Nice call ADman.... CNXT did just as you said and in only two days. You are HUUUGE!!!! Sorry I doubted you.

Thanks! You should keep an eye on CNXT. I think, if it dips below 3.12, you might have another play on it again. The huge volume that it trades on, for no good reason, indicated to me that the "rapid fire boys" have latched on to it. The "rapid fire boys" is a term I apply to the day traders that will take a huge position (10K shrs or more) in a cheap (read under $5) stock to grab a 3-5% gain, dump and do it again.

[Adman]

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Saint Paddy’s day and a nice weekend.
I ended up getting plowed at an Italian bar on Saint Patrick’s Day near 39th and Lex with a bunch of the boys from Bear Stearns.

Here is what I am looking at today:
I had been looking at some retail stocks, and I was liking Best Buy (BBY), when Rex Stores started popping up (RSC). We are a couple of days away from them reporting earnings, but I like what I see. A couple of small blips on the income statement aside, I think you should be able to pick up 5-7% on good numbers here. Even if you don’t get the pop after the numbers and analyst call, I am confident this will play well as a mid-term hold. Perhaps I will revisit Best Buy later in the summer.

It’s funny how things happen; I was taking a good long look at LSI Logic (LSI), actually sitting on the fence, mulling over the red on the balance sheet, when NVDA came up. NVIDIA is a good strong company that looks to have good momentum ahead. Lot’s of positive reports floating around about them, but I am not happy with a share price close to $49. I will be watching this closely for the next several sessions, and if I see it dip below 48, I’m going in.

My sleeper pick of the week: ZONES INC (ZONS). This is an affordable little stock with nothing but good numbers and great reports. They are a mail order catalogue outfit that gets it right. I like them for a variety of reasons (including their financials). They are just off their 52 week high and since December, ZONS has slowly inched up from a $4.50 stock to a $6.75 on almost non-existent volume. Traded so thinly, that 15k shares in a day is big. What does all this indicate? The strong financials and thin volume means that Zones has not made it onto many screens, but that’s about to change. Look to get into this under 7, and expect to see 8 or better by midyear, or sooner. This is not another PLB, but I do expect to see a steady gains in the coming weeks and months.

I do not have a position in any of these companies, but will likely go into ZONS today, and will disclose if I do, as with the others, as well.

I have two more to keep an eye on, as wild cards, this week:

Segue Software (SEGU). Even though they are at a 52-week high, there is still room to move.

Sirius (SIRI). That’s right, SIRI. These guys have been beaten back so severely over the past month, that they are once again favorable. Much like CNXT, you can look to get a small, short-term pop out of them. I went in today on EH under 5 and it is now trading above 5. I am hoping to see 5.15 to 5.39 this week. If we get above 5.39, I am going to place a stop loss there, and wait it out a bit, looking for 5.61 before I bail out completely.
A few years ago, I rode this rollercoaster up and down between 2 and 2.50, then, 2.50 and 3 and made a killing. I don’t think you’ll get the reliable advance/decline we saw back then, but I am fairly certain that at around 5, there’s money to be made here.

Good luck:
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE: I am now back in SIRI, and may take a small position in SEGU sometime today. I have an EH order in on ZONS for $6.68
Happy Trading!

[Peter Hansen]

Adman Check Out JNRRF.PK & STHJF.PK

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Saint Paddy’s day and a nice weekend.
I ended up getting plowed at an Italian bar on Saint Patrick’s Day near 39th and Lex with a bunch of the boys from Bear Stearns.

Here is what I am looking at today:
I had been looking at some retail stocks, and I was liking Best Buy (BBY), when Rex Stores started popping up (RSC). We are a couple of days away from them reporting earnings, but I like what I see. A couple of small blips on the income statement aside, I think you should be able to pick up 5-7% on good numbers here. Even if you don’t get the pop after the numbers and analyst call, I am confident this will play well as a mid-term hold. Perhaps I will revisit Best Buy later in the summer.

It’s funny how things happen; I was taking a good long look at LSI Logic (LSI), actually sitting on the fence, mulling over the red on the balance sheet, when NVDA came up. NVIDIA is a good strong company that looks to have good momentum ahead. Lot’s of positive reports floating around about them, but I am not happy with a share price close to $49. I will be watching this closely for the next several sessions, and if I see it dip below 48, I’m going in.

My sleeper pick of the week: ZONES INC (ZONS). This is an affordable little stock with nothing but good numbers and great reports. They are a mail order catalogue outfit that gets it right. I like them for a variety of reasons (including their financials). They are just off their 52 week high and since December, ZONS has slowly inched up from a $4.50 stock to a $6.75 on almost non-existent volume. Traded so thinly, that 15k shares in a day is big. What does all this indicate? The strong financials and thin volume means that Zones has not made it onto many screens, but that’s about to change. Look to get into this under 7, and expect to see 8 or better by midyear, or sooner. This is not another PLB, but I do expect to see a steady gains in the coming weeks and months.

I do not have a position in any of these companies, but will likely go into ZONS today, and will disclose if I do, as with the others, as well.

Adman I see you have a penchant for the fast ponies.......sometime you have to leave old betsy back in the stable and hop on a mustang for a real ride. Thses 2 look good for a quick ride !

[Adman]

I've never been a big fan of CD (personal reasons, only), but today they announced that Godon Bethune will be taking the helm over there.
Gordon is a world class manager that knows the industry about as well as anyone could.
With that said, I am going to keep a very close watch on CD.

[IIC]

Adman...any thoughts on BBBY?...I think it has bottomed and on the way back up myself...Thanks, Doug(IIC)

[Adman]

Bed Bath & Beyond is set do very well, IMHO, all the way through the year-end holiday season.
With the sale of their rival Linens 'N Things almost complete, I am sure that the Apollo Group will try to "tweak" Linen N Things, and piss off their customers.
BBBY on the other hand has beefed up customer service, is much more (affordable) upscale and is in the middle of a two-year program to increase store traffic.
BBBY, on a monthly basis, sends out carte blanche, across the board 10, 20 or 25% storewide discount coupons every 5 weeks. They rotate the percentage off through different markets on a regular basis. Example: This cycles’ discounts could be 20% off in the metro NY/NJ market and the South Florida market could receive a 25% coupon. Same store sales are up quarter over quarter, showing it's working. Also, BBBY has set up a nice co-op or cost sharing agreement with many of their best vendors to recapture some of the cost associated with the program.

As long as we are on retail, take a look at HVT, Haverty's. This is an upscale southern furniture store that always runs nice discounts on the good stuff, not just the crap that didn't sell last season, like most furniture stores do.
The new housing starts are alive and well in some of the major southern markets like Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville, and these are upscale 3500-6000 square foot homes running $500K to over a million. In Atlanta alone, Haverty's has $5000 incentives from several of the upscale builders for new homebuyers. The builders are paying almost full boat for these chits (perhaps they are getting a 2% discount to the dollar, but certainly not more).
This alone is adding to HVT's bottom line almost weekly.

[Adman]

Thanks! You should keep an eye on CNXT. I think, if it dips below 3.12, you might have another play on it again. The huge volume that it trades on, for no good reason, indicated to me that the "rapid fire boys" have latched on to it. The "rapid fire boys" is a term I apply to the day traders that will take a huge position (10K shrs or more) in a cheap (read under $5) stock to grab a 3-5% gain, dump and do it again.

It's happened again. We've gone from $3.12 yesterday to 3.34 today. If you are patient, and keep a close eye on it, you can pick up 6-7% off this on regular moves like that. I am out again at 3.34, looking for 3.10-3.12 to buy back in.

[Adman]

I am a liitle pressed for time today, so I only have coverage for one pick today.
I have been in Nettease since April "05, where I got in at 44. I let my entire position go yesterday at 92.00. It treated me well, and there is still some upside room, but being up that much, taking it off the table wasn't going to hurt.
I went searching for a replacement in the same arena, and came up with CHINA, CDC Corp.
CDC Corp has been beaten back about 45% from its' high 2 years ago this month. It hit a historical low last June before taking somewhat of a choppy ride for 6 months, but not wild swings. Now, since January, it appears to have regained some stability, trading in somewhat of a narrow range, with the advances slowly gaining a foothold. I now believe at $4.29, there is room for 15% or better on the upside, but it will come slowly, over several months, perhaps by late fall.
I have a limit in to pick up a sizable position to put in my "holding closet".
This is a contrarian play, and if you can not afford to deploy your capital on this for 6 months, then don't. There are plenty of fish in the sea.
Good luck, and happy trading!

(BTW- I only did a 24 month look back, you may want to do a 36 or 60 month backtest)

[Adman]

Today’s (3/23) picks:

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, MIG. An alternative funding P&C group focusing in the workman’s comp arena that's deep in the black. At a cheap $6.70, it has nowhere but up to go. Don't miss this one.

French Telecom, FTE. Yea yea yea, I've heard it all about the French. With that aside, this phone company has a good 30% to go before peaking. At 23.51, it has regained traction after a beating, and has been slowly inching upward, on low volume, under everyone’s radar, except ours. To be on the safe side, lock in every 10% with a stop order equal to 7.5% of gain, in the event of a European hic-up. This is one decent looking ADR.

Nara Bancorp, NARA. Founded in 1989 as a community bank in LA, they have been very profitable, and reliable with dividends. The dividend of .027 will be payable to shareholders of record on April 14th (ex date 3/31). I am not suggesting you buy this for the divi, rather buy to hold for an overnight pop.
Here we have a bank that is profitable, only 18 branches that are 17 years old, with founders that have made their money. Nara blends into each community (minority communities, that is) it serves like a chameleon. I am looking for one of the eastern based regionals like Compass, Regions or even a long shot like SunTrust to start looking at them. If that happens, their shares will become premium. This is a buy and forget about deal, if you can afford to. (BTW- I am not calling this a real estate play by any means, but they do own the bricks and mortar of some of the branches)

Alcatel, ALA. I have this right in there with OPTC. At 15.35, it’s setting new 52-week highs, and think you should be able to capture an easy 10% without breaking a sweat. Lock in your gains once it hits 16.88, and let the dog run.

Microsemi, MSCC. This is one that has enjoyed a steady rise, doubling in the past 12 months. It experienced a minor pullback last month, and around 29, I think you will be able to see 33.50 in the next couple of months, for a 15% gain, before the engine stalls.

DISCLOSURES: I am long in MIG, I have the Apr 25 calls on MSCC and am long in OPTC, and have Apr 15 calls on NARA.

These are not recommendations to buy, rather, some fresh picks for you to look in to. As always, do your own research and make the decision based on your own criteria. Never buy my, or anyone else’s picks, without looking into them first.
I try to suggest good companies that I see value and appreciation in, not just the run of the mill BB stocks for hype.
Happy trading!