Admans outlook

[The Stock Boy]

Today’s (3/23) picks:

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, MIG. An alternative funding P&C group focusing in the workman’s comp arena that's deep in the black. At a cheap $6.70, it has nowhere but up to go. Don't miss this one.

French Telecom, FTE. Yea yea yea, I've heard it all about the French. With that aside, this phone company has a good 30% to go before peaking. At 23.51, it has regained traction after a beating, and has been slowly inching upward, on low volume, under everyone’s radar, except ours. To be on the safe side, lock in every 10% with a stop order equal to 7.5% of gain, in the event of a European hic-up. This is one decent looking ADR.

Nara Bancorp, NARA. Founded in 1989 as a community bank in LA, they have been very profitable, and reliable with dividends. The dividend of .027 will be payable to shareholders of record on April 14th (ex date 3/31). I am not suggesting you buy this for the divi, rather buy to hold for an overnight pop.
Here we have a bank that is profitable, only 18 branches that are 17 years old, with founders that have made their money. Nara blends into each community (minority communities, that is) it serves like a chameleon. I am looking for one of the eastern based regionals like Compass, Regions or even a long shot like SunTrust to start looking at them. If that happens, their shares will become premium. This is a buy and forget about deal, if you can afford to. (BTW- I am not calling this a real estate play by any means, but they do own the bricks and mortar of some of the branches)

Alcatel, ALA. I have this right in there with OPTC. At 15.35, it’s setting new 52-week highs, and think you should be able to capture an easy 10% without breaking a sweat. Lock in your gains once it hits 16.88, and let the dog run.

Microsemi, MSCC. This is one that has enjoyed a steady rise, doubling in the past 12 months. It experienced a minor pullback last month, and around 29, I think you will be able to see 33.50 in the next couple of months, for a 15% gain, before the engine stalls.

DISCLOSURES: I am long in MIG, I have the Apr 25 calls on MSCC and am long in OPTC, and have Apr 15 calls on NARA.

These are not recommendations to buy, rather, some fresh picks for you to look in to. As always, do your own research and make the decision based on your own criteria. Never buy my, or anyone else’s picks, without looking into them first.
I try to suggest good companies that I see value and appreciation in, not just the run of the mill BB stocks for hype.
Happy trading!

I need to ask a question, and probably a stupid one, but how do you determine what stocks to research? There are 1000's out there to choose from, and I have been watching ones that people like yourself, Mr. Lyehopper, IIC, New Born Baby and others, and you always seem to have a very diverse selection to write on. And yours, the overwhelming majority of your picks go up.
Is there a red flag that I should be looking for that will make me notice the next PLB?
Thank you for any insight that anyone may be willing to share!

[Adman]

Today's pick are reiterations of ealier ones:

SEGU, Segue Software. Even near their 52 week high, they will continue to trend upward. On the short term, I feel that a price of 9.25 is very attainable, giving you a nice little pick up of 7.5% from its' current level.

BHP, Billiton. I remain bullish here, and am still looking for 41 or better by mid-year.


DISCLOSURE: I am long in BHP and SEGU

[DSteckler]

Today's pick are reiterations of ealier ones:

SEGU, Segue Software. Even near their 52 week high, they will continue to trend upward. On the short term, I feel that a price of 9.25 is very attainable, giving you a nice little pick up of 7.5% from its' current level.

BHP, Billiton. I remain bullish here, and am still looking for 41 or better by mid-year.


DISCLOSURE: I am long in BHP and SEGU

Better do a little more research there, Adman. SEGU was bought out by BORL at a price of $8.67/share.

[Peter Hansen]

WIRE Our Old Friend is Back

WIRE is back on my radar screen as a buy .....I am tempted any opinions?

[Adman]

Better do a little more research there, Adman. SEGU was bought out by BORL at a price of $8.67/share.

That is true, and they cleared a couple of regulatory hurdles earlier, the buy out number was 8.67/share. There is very low volume now, on SEGU, with a ton of outstanding shares, still.
This is an anomaly, which has occurred in the past, albeit, rare. In this case, there will be a stock trade out, when the deal settles: The remaining outstanding shares of SEGU will automatically be converted to shares of BORL, and the current ratio is 1:1.60. It will be a little while longer for the deal to settle, giving SEGU an opportunity to trend up a bit more. At this point, (IMHO), the remaining SEGU shareholders are now looking for a larger percentage of BORL shares (me being one of them).
I would not recommend buying BORL at this time as it has been shaken up a bit, but would not sell either. It’s a solid hold until the SEGU deal settles. At that point, you will probably see a modest move upward, possibly 3-3.5%, and that is where I will unload my shares.
If my scenario comes to fruition, conceivably, one could end up with 1777 shares of BORL for a 1000 of SEGU. The value could be in the neighborhood of $93-9700. If you do get that 3% move when the deal closes, it could add an extra $280 or more to your bottom line. Of course, if SEGU did trend up over 9, you could always sell it before the close, but might not be able to, as there will probably not be a market for it.
Pure speculation here. As a side note, I try to pick up 12-15 stocks a month that I can get that 3% or so off. It’s a lot more work than trying to pick off the 10-15% stocks, but much more steady when it comes to “green on the screen”. Am I right all the time? Hell no! I have my fair share of losers like the rest of Wall Street, but my losers are usually not large beatings.
One final thought to consider: The ultimate approval for this deal is in the hands of the SEGU shareholders. With as many shares still outstand as of today (approx 12 mill vs. 2.3mill that BORL took), that may be some sort of indication on which way the are leaning. It would not be the first time shareholders have over-ridden management.
Sorry for the confusion. I should have laid out the entire play much earlier, as I say often, don’t buy without doing your own research. Let’s revisit this post down the line, after the deal closes to see how I made out.

[IIC]

I need to ask a question, and probably a stupid one, but how do you determine what stocks to research? There are 1000's out there to choose from, and I have been watching ones that people like yourself, Mr. Lyehopper, IIC, New Born Baby and others, and you always seem to have a very diverse selection to write on. And yours, the overwhelming majority of your picks go up.
Is there a red flag that I should be looking for that will make me notice the next PLB?
Thank you for any insight that anyone may be willing to share!

StockBoy...There are many ways to research watchlist pix...But I'm gonna tell 'ya...Don't get all caught up in this Technical Mumbo Jumbo...Look at price/volume...consider moving groups in favor at the time. Best to look at fundamentally sound companies...Look at the IIC's Killer Watch Lists I have been posting on my thread...I apologized for Thurs. List only having an A/D of 60%...I screwed up because I was in a rush...I will not do that again...I took a bit more time last night...Today Over 89% were green...To be honest...It is a No Brainer for swing trading...I have been D/T'ng mostly for the last 1 1/2 yrs...But I'm going back to quality...I did well and I love DayTrading...But it is a time thing now....Buy stocks that are gonna go up...Best, Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Maybe I should re-phrase that...I still think you should use some technicals...what I mean by Mumbo-Jumbo is that you should not get carried away with it. For example, I have a chart setup that gives me ADX in 4 time values, MACD in 4 time values, and several other indicators in multiple time values...The idea was that I could catch moves before eveyone saw the default values to their liking...But in a 1 month experiment using real $$$...I got whipped out so often it made my head spin....Doug(IIC)

[The Stock Boy]

Maybe I should re-phrase that...I still think you should use some technicals...what I mean by Mumbo-Jumbo is that you should not get carried away with it. For example, I have a chart setup that gives me ADX in 4 time values, MACD in 4 time values, and several other indicators in multiple time values...The idea was that I could catch moves before eveyone saw the default values to their liking...But in a 1 month experiment using real $$$...I got whipped out so often it made my head spin....Doug(IIC)

Thank you! I am just trying to get a handle on all of this. As I said in an earlier post, I am a very green novice, and really appreciate the help I have been able to pick up on this page.

[Adman]

I have a couple for you to look at today (3/28/06)

AMK, American Tech Ceramics. This is just a short term play that you could pick up a .68 to .70 move in the next couple of weeks, for a 5%+ gain. They have a pretty solid pipeline with orders and stack up pretty well in comparision to their peers.
It had trended up during Feb, before some pullbacks a couple of weeks ago, now heading north again. Although there are several buy ratings by a handfull of analysts, I think they are late to the table, that is why I am only looking for 5% or so on the short term.

SFG, Stancorp Financial Group. This is a unit of Standard Life, and they have crafted what I understand, is a unique retirement accumulation vehicle (read: annuity) that works on a progressive scale, that moves automatically towards a more conservative model, as the clients age. The financials and insurance group is hot, and insurance companies that offer variable annuities or non-indexed annuities are getting a lot of play.

I do not have an interest in either firms at this time, and will disclose if I decide to enter.
As always, do your own research and homework before investing.

[Adman]

XWG has pulled back a little today. The days low was 5.76 and is now at 5.80. I am used this as an opportunity to increase my position. I am very bullish here.

For thoses that followed this, I sold 50% of my position a short while ago, at 6.67.

I had a cost basis (in on three buys) of 5.77, pulling a gain of a bit more than 15% in a 9 day stretch. I am watching the remaining shares very close, as it is still on thin volume, but expect to see a little pullback, with some profit taking. (At the time, my sell earlier, represented 5% of today's volume).
In the interest of fair play, I have a stop in at 6.61.

[Adman]

For thoses that followed this, I sold 50% of my position a short while ago, at 6.67.

I had a cost basis (in on three buys) of 5.77, pulling a gain of a bit more than 15% in a 9 day stretch. I am watching the remaining shares very close, as it is still on thin volume, but expect to see a little pullback, with some profit taking. (At the time, my sell earlier, represented 5% of today's volume).
In the interest of fair play, I have a stop in at 6.61.

Either I am a seer, or you guys follow my stuff a little more than you'll admit to. Since I posted this a few minutes ago, the price moved up an additional 2 cents, then dropped 12 cents, with an increase of over 10,000 shares on the volume, mostly sells.
My remaining 50% went off on the way down at 6.61.
I am keeping an eye on this, as there may be another chance to get back on this one, but not for 15%.

[Adman]

Either I am a seer, or you guys follow my stuff a little more than you'll admit to. Since I posted this a few minutes ago, the price moved up an additional 2 cents, then dropped 12 cents, with an increase of over 10,000 shares on the volume, mostly sells.
My remaining 50% went off on the way down at 6.61.
I am keeping an eye on this, as there may be another chance to get back on this one, but not for 15%.

WOOOA! A roller coaster here. Perhaps I was a little hasty with my last post,
this baby has jumped up 10 cents in the last couple of minutes. Perhaps you should hang in there a little more, while I check out what's going on.

[Adman]

WOOOA! A roller coaster here. Perhaps I was a little hasty with my last post,
this baby has jumped up 10 cents in the last couple of minutes. Perhaps you should hang in there a little more, while I check out what's going on.

I can’t be 100% certain, but it appears that most of the sells (about 2000 or so shares) that occurred in the past 15 minutes were all odd lots of 50. The buys were three lots of 500, which happened in the past 7 minutes or so. The sells may indicate, just may, that many employees with incentive options may have been able to sell today. Likewise with the 500 share buys, they may have been management-exercising options also.
In many cases, when stock options are awarded, the exercise price will usually be way below the market value (hopefully). Often, you will see the rank and file flip them for the instant gain, where management will often buy them at the discount to hold.
That appears to be the case here, but it will take a couple of days before we can confirm that.
In the mean time, profit is profit.

[Adman]

For the morning (3/29):
Today, I like PVA, Penn-Virginia Corp. These guys run a bunch of highly profitable LP’s that I have invested in over the past couple of years with great results. I thought it about time to look upstream at the master limited partnership, and I did, and I liked what I saw, but, as always, do your own research.

DISCLOSURE: I will be placing a limit order for PVA at 69.30 today, before the open.

[alice4321us]

Adman,

Thanks for your well thought out posts. I read your thread often & find it informative.

Alice